Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Well I was going to go to Dauphin Island this afternoon but now I think I will be heading to Gulf Port MS for what ever is left of so-called Bonnie.... I might even get a water spout or too and wind of 20-25MPH....

Thats they way it looks as of right now....

Taco :o)

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Quoting StormSurgeon:


West Mobile myself. You've seen a T-storm lately? I just want my grass watered.


Not lately. My grass is dead.
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1015 means it's about to open.. into an open swave
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Rather strange on the 850mb Vorticity Graphic above is a strong return just North of the Dominican Republic. What is strange is an ULL directly over head. Could be a little sleeper under the ULL as we have seen that before when something is directly under an ULL!
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Quoting keithneese:


Sure am, I'm right around Tillman's Corner. I've seen summer thunderstorms worse than this.


West Mobile myself. You've seen a T-storm lately? I just want my grass watered.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


By "system", do you mean rain?........LOL


Any fool..even a Mobilian can see the LLC on the Visible.



Some seems to think they can tell a Squall from a Swirl.

But a Bunch yesterday followed the decoupled upper swirl ride North and forgot about the surface Circ.

Thats always phun to watch here.

Double pfffthhh.

LOL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127637
Quoting Patrap:
Well if hes on Dauphin Island,,they better slide west some as the System looks to come up the Miss River delta tonight.


By "system", do you mean rain?........LOL
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Inbound again



AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Shaking in your boots Pat?


Pfffth,

..Takes a Major to Worry me here.

..was going to the Antiques Road Show in Biloxi,,but Im too tired from Garage sale here yesterday we had for Portlight.

Plus..its awfully dark to the SE..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127637
Well seem like 2010 seasons will be active and not hyper active looks like it will be a seasons full with invests upper level low and African dust
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


You a fellow Mobilian? DI won't allow any media down there if a real storm is coming. That's what's funny about it......


Sure am, I'm right around Tillman's Corner. I've seen summer thunderstorms worse than this.
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Quoting Patrap:
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop



Shaking in your boots Pat?
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Well if hes on Dauphin Island,,they better slide west some as the System looks to come up the Miss River delta tonight.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127637
Quoting keithneese:



I'm about 30 mins from Dauphin Island. It actually feels pretty good outside. Nice to know the weekend will be salvaged now!


You a fellow Mobilian? DI won't allow any media down there if a real storm is coming. That's what's funny about it......
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Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127637
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Haaaaa, Mike Sidel is on Dauphin Island......too funny!


I was talking with Mike about an hour ago and he wants a storm. I even offered to take them out in the boat for a live shot
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Haaaaa, Mike Sidel is on Dauphin Island......too funny!



I'm about 30 mins from Dauphin Island. It actually feels pretty good outside. Nice to know the weekend will be salvaged now!
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2009 the year of shear

2010 The year of Upper Level lows
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Dang...just brought in my loose things outside, finally put the support stakes in the ground on the swing set and cut the grass all this morning THEN I log on to check on things and we will probably just get a weak TStorm. Oh well at least i got some stuff done haha.
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Haaaaa, Mike Sidel is on Dauphin Island......too funny!
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No more hurricanes until September. Strong formation has been the hurdle that none of these systems can overcome. September is when the Dujjmobile will return, and then there will be hurricanes.
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Quoting goalexgo:
I hate these ULLs, now, the Carribean invest is being screwed up by one. Ruining the whole weekend.

Funny thing that TWC was cheering for the ULL to rip Bonnie apart.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
I hate these ULLs, now, the Carribean invest is being screwed up by one. Ruining the whole weekend.
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Quoting tkeith:
47. BFG308 8:43 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

nice Les Paul, is that yours?


It's close, minus some scratches.... That's the stock photo though
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Quoting jrweatherman:
You know what is funny is that in 20-30yrs from now, today's babies will look at the history of storm tracks and see that South Florida got hit by a TS on July 23rd. Unless they do their research, little will they know that Bonnie was no worse than a typical afternoon summer thunderstorm.


That is the way this union works sir... Nothing more nothing less.. LOL
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
You know what is funny is that in 20-30yrs from now, today's babies will look at the history of storm tracks and see that South Florida got hit by a TS on July 23rd. Unless they do their research, little will they know that Bonnie was no worse than a typical afternoon summer thunderstorm.
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Good Morning Everyone. How do you get the GFS models for out in in the atlantic. I can only find the ones over the us.
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47. BFG308 8:43 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

nice Les Paul, is that yours?
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Mobile Radar, rain moving in later....

Radar
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Quoting StormW:
SST ANOMALIES JULY 22, 2010



SST ANOMALIES JULY 23, 2005


Questions?


Storm, why is the Whole Pacific so cold?
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Whump whump waaahhh....


Bonnie is looking anorexic.
Just enough rain to keep me inside for the day, though.

NEXT!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i got a feeling its going to be a real slow day on the blog


Good, shove yourself away from the flat screen and play some golf or something......I am...
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Bonnie is looking good, a few nice feeder bands and warm water are making for a strong come back...........oops, sorry, thought I was Hurrkat for a second there.....LOL....

LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
Hey Chief... Can a ULL work its way to the surface? Im identifying that ULL in the caribbean as a Tutt low??.. I guess that is the second question...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Bonnie is looking good, a few nice feeder bands and warm water are making for a strong come back...........oops, sorry, thought I was Hurrkat for a second there.....LOL....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
De acuerdo. I have a feeling we've had our rainiest July here in the Bahamas as well. It's certainly be cooler than average....

Unfortunately it looks like the rain is going to linger over the Nrn Caribbean / Bahamas / TC area for the rest of the month....

I like the rain, but not this much!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Meanwhile....
in my backyard:

Yeah... I think I'm going to spend some time in MY back yard today, while there's still some sun with my clouds... lol

I'll look in on u guys later. Unless it is raining where u are, pls don't spend ALL ur day in the blog!!!! lol
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Quoting Waltanater:
Bonnie was NOT impressive at all! - WHOOP-DEE-DOO! Maybe Colin will BRING IT!

I hope Mother Nature doesn't decide for a major to hit the Spill or Haiti.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you remember when people said once this season kicks off we'll be begging for mercy"?, cause I'm begging for the rains in PR to stop. Vega Alta (My home town) had been declared at a state of emergency due to T-storms on May 31st, and I don't want that happening again.
De acuerdo. I have a feeling we've had our rainiest July here in the Bahamas as well. It's certainly be cooler than average....

Unfortunately it looks like the rain is going to linger over the Nrn Caribbean / Bahamas / TC area for the rest of the month....
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I'm gonna take a look at it later.
Okay chief :)
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Meanwhile....
in my backyard:

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Good morning StormW. What is the latest forecast on the NAO for August and September?
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Bonnie was NOT impressive at all! - WHOOP-DEE-DOO! Maybe Colin will BRING IT!
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Does anybody notice the swirl NW of Haiti? It does show some 850mb vorticity...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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