Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
RIP BONNIE.

hey bonnie looking better than she did last night. at least she picked up some storms.lol!:)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta run.....everyone have good day. Don't see a lot of worries except and inland flooding problem coming from Bonnie in the Tennessee Valley....could be bad!

What about the potential for there to be more than just rain dropped? Acid rain anyone? It seems like I'm talking to myself on this topic here. ;(
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Gotta go hit the Gym and work my one pack! Wife is sick of me being on the computer with "no storms" LOL... My wife is a downcaster or a NAG CASTER.... LOL

OMG you are not right while I'm LMBO

Nag-Caster Thats funny right there I tell Ya....

Taco :o)
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128. SLU
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL


Yep .. certainly has been of late.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No thanks it's a great time to be an Alabama and Saints fan


Just fooling with you Hardcore, I like the Tide too. Few have been lucky enough to hoist the trophy this century. Won't be heading to the Island today, too much to do around here and the weather is uncooperative. I really need to get off my butt.....and this blog.......
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Gotta go hit the Gym and work my one pack! Wife is sick of me being on the computer with "no storms" LOL... My wife is a downcaster or a NAG CASTER.... LOL
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123. SLU

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like 2008 and 2007. I don't get what some people don't understand, the conditions we're seeing out there right now are NORMAL. I'm not talking about you ackee, not specifically, but there are loads and loads of bloggers out there who still don't understand and will probably ignore this post.

Here's the shear anamolies. Look at the trends, not the current level of shear.

In the Gulf, that large spike in late June - Early July is thanks to Alex.


In the Caribbean


In the tropical Atlantic


In the sub-tropical Atlantic


How about SAL? Does this SAL honestly look as bad as it did in 2006? You must remember, 2005 had only 1 Cape Verde cyclone, Irene. Everything else developed from trough splits or tropical waves well away from the Cape Verdes.


ULLs are also normal for this time of year.

MJO? CFS predicts a downward yes, but not as hard as the GFS is. MJO has been trending towards our basin all season, because that is where all the heat is bundled up. Even if we go downward, it has been noted that the downward MJO might not act like normal thanks to the abnormally high SSTs.. we still might see large amounts of moisture. This is similar to 2005.




If these conditions continue through August to October then we're in for a major season.

And a downward phase of the MJO doesn't mean that storms can't form. They can still develop. They tend to be more prevalent when there's upward motion but they don't need widespread upward motion for formation to occur.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.


Hey I second that Tiger Pic too... It would be a Nice change for ya there HardCore.LOL

Taco :o)
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Quoting Chicklit:
Enjoy the break, Dr. Masters. Looks like your neck of the woods has been getting some extreme weather!
Relieved that Bonnie is making LA landfall with best case scenario.
Thanks for keeping us all up to date.

Record Report
Statement as of 7:51 am EDT on July 24, 2010
... Record warm low temperature tied at Melbourne (FL) yesterday...
The low temperature of 78 degrees Friday at Melbourne International Airport equaled the record warm low for that date... July 23... which previously occurred in 2005.



I have a sneaking suspicion that the record release of methane from various oil well leaks the world over for the last few years has something to do with the temperature spikes lately...but it's only a hunch (methane is also said to be much more conducive to creating a warming environment than CO2). ;)
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Quoting taco2me61:

Just wait on the 2nd wave of thunderstorms...
I think you will have a water spout out of it....

Taco :o)


I will turn on the stream once that 2nd wave arrives and post a direct link for yall
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Gotta run.....everyone have good day. Don't see a lot of worries except and inland flooding problem coming from Bonnie in the Tennessee Valley....could be bad!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.


No thanks it's a great time to be an Alabama and Saints fan
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Quoting SLU:


Relax, it's onlt July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.



LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Looks like I am finally going to get wet. No waterspouts yet



Just wait on the 2nd wave of thunderstorms...
I think you will have a water spout out of it....

Taco :o)
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


My reference to 2005 was simply it was a hyperactive year and busy at the beginning. I only forecasted 17 storms which is 11 behind 2005.. I also said that we were at the "G" storm by now and I thought we would be at the "D" storm.


Well, if 92L, TD2, and 95L were named we'd be at Earl right now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?


Must be an off day down there. I'm in West Mobile. I have a nice Tiger pic if you want to change that avatar.....heh heh.
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112. SLU
Quoting ackee:
Well seem like 2010 seasons will be active and not hyper active looks like it will be a seasons full with invests upper level low and African dust


Relax, it's only July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.

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Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
July 24, 2010. 6:00 a.m

***INCREASED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT JAMAICA ***


A Trough, currently east of Jamaica, is expected to linger across the area today. Satellite imagery indicates cloudy conditions with possible showers and thunderstorms currently over the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Therefore, the forecast is for widespread showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times, along with gusty winds, to affect sections of most parishes today and tonight, as the Trough moves closer to Jamaica.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in showers and thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas.


Meanwhile,
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Looks like I am finally going to get wet. No waterspouts yet


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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?


Heck yesterday I didnt even get a 20mph on my Davis as the storm past. But it is stationary now and Im in Central Fl. But I am 160ft. above sea level...
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The word HYPERACTIVE may have been over used. Yes it will be above active but, as i have posted this graphic before as everyone can see the very active years for the globe gradually incline......not a 1 year spike.....next year and the year following may be the true HYPERACTIVE YEARS......i pointed this out in my JUNE 1st prediction for the year...thats why i only had 16 named storms!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I also heard that Downward motion is not as effective once you start getting into the heart of the season.. It tends to be more prominant of a player when you are on the front or back side of the season.... Of course that is my opinion and I certianly could be full of XXXX! even my detector went up as I was typing.. LOL


Actually that's a good statement, storms form more easily as we get later into the season and aren't influenced as much by downward MJO.. still affects the basin however. Aug 09, we experienced 3 storms in 2 days in a neutral - downward MJO phase including a Category 4 hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
There is a non tasked HH taking off from St Croix also.



AOI
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Met Service of Jamaica
July 24, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean.

Comment
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough are expected
to continue affecting most areas today and tonight.


24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning and Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms across sections of all parishes.

Tonight… Occasional showers with isolated thunderstorms.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sun… Isolated morning showers over western parishes. Partly cloudy afternoon.

Mon/Tue… Mostly sunny morning. Periods of showers likely during the afternoon mainly over hilly areas.

Regionally… High Pressure Ridge will gradually rebuild across the northern Caribbean.

grb
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I haven't measured a 25 mph wind yet on my davis weather station on my truck down here on Dauphin Island. Where are you Surgeon ?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You are 100% correct. Strange thing about MJO was it truly has not fully arrived into the Atlantic Basin fully as the Models have forecasted. Not sure why that has not occured. Almost as if it missed us completely.


Yep, wonder if I should be called 'attack dog ted'.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
101. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Stop comparing this season to 2005, we shouldn't expect that kind of level this year of activity. 2004, lets talk about that season.. no named storms until late July. 15 named storms, 2007 had 7 storms in September, 2000 also had 15 named storms with the first named storm forming in early August. If we see a ramp up in activity like those seasons which is very possible we'll hit 17 easy.


Add couple of the "unnamed" invests and 20 could be breached
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like 2008 and 2007. I don't get what some people don't understand, the conditions we're seeing out there right now are NORMAL. I'm not talking about you ackee, not specifically, but there are loads and loads of bloggers out there who still don't understand and will probably ignore this post.

Here's the shear anamolies. Look at the trends, not the current level of shear.

In the Gulf, that large spike in late June - Early July is thanks to Alex.


In the Caribbean


In the tropical Atlantic


In the sub-tropical Atlantic


How about SAL? Does this SAL honestly look as bad as it did in 2006? You must remember, 2005 had only 1 Cape Verde cyclone, Irene. Everything else developed from trough splits or tropical waves well away from the Cape Verdes.


ULLs are also normal for this time of year.

MJO? CFS predicts a downward yes, but not as hard as the GFS is. MJO has been trending towards our basin all season, because that is where all the heat is bundled up. Even if we go downward, it has been noted that the downward MJO might not act like normal thanks to the abnormally high SSTs.. we still might see large amounts of moisture. This is similar to 2005.




I also heard that Downward motion is not as effective once you start getting into the heart of the season.. It tends to be more prominant of a player when you are on the front or back side of the season.... Of course that is my opinion and I certianly could be full of XXXX! even my detector went up as I was typing.. LOL
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Quoting Patrap:


Everyone cant be so Lucky to Live here...

How's the Mobile NFL Team a coming this year?

Always have room for a visitor here SS.


You've got me there Pat, our team is in the Big Easy. My college team is in Baton Rouge.....Geaux Tigers......Hoo Hoo!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Hey Taco, take a picture if you're lucky enough to catch one. No beach for me today, bar opens at 10:00, count me there.......

I plan on thating Pictures maybe some Video's but thats it....

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:



Are you on Spotternet ? I will be streaming this afternoon :) Nice day down here on Dauphin Island, AL
Well i was thinking I would take my Web-Cam but I have thought about it and will not be doing any Live shots today.... With all due respect I think it will be only Rain with a scwall or too....
So nothing Live today :o(

Oh Good morning to you Guys too kinda a "Lame"Storm uh....


Taco :o)
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Heck Tampa, a nice day on Dauphin Island is a cool 25 mph breeze......


Pin your tupa down as that extra 1mph forecast might be enough to blow it off!....ROFLMAO
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


In 2005 we were already at the "G" storm. I thought we would have had 4 by now. Many of the experts thought we would have an early start to the CV season and that did not materialize. My original forecast was 17 storms. I won't change it but I do believe that 14 is more realistic (which is still 30% above normal. Especially with nothing on the horizon for the next 5-7 days.


Stop comparing this season to 2005, we shouldn't expect that kind of level this year of activity. 2004, lets talk about that season.. no named storms until late July. 15 named storms, 2007 had 7 storms in September, 2000 also had 15 named storms with the first named storm forming in early August. If we see a ramp up in activity like those seasons which is very possible we'll hit 17 easy.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like 2008 and 2007. I don't get what some people don't understand, the conditions we're seeing out there right now are NORMAL. I'm not talking about you ackee, not specifically, but there are loads and loads of bloggers out there who still don't understand and will probably ignore this post.

Here's the shear anamolies. Look at the trends, not the current level of shear.

In the Gulf, that large spike in late June - Early July is thanks to Alex.


In the Caribbean


In the tropical Atlantic


In the sub-tropical Atlantic


How about SAL? Does this SAL honestly look as bad as it did in 2006? You must remember, 2005 had only 1 Cape Verde cyclone, Irene. Everything else developed from trough splits or tropical waves well away from the Cape Verdes.


ULLs are also normal for this time of year.

MJO? CFS predicts a downward yes, but not as hard as the GFS is. MJO has been trending towards our basin all season, because that is where all the heat is bundled up. Even if we go downward, it has been noted that the downward MJO might not act like normal thanks to the abnormally high SSTs.. we still might see large amounts of moisture. This is similar to 2005.




You are 100% correct. Strange thing about MJO was it truly has not fully arrived into the Atlantic Basin fully as the Models have forecasted. Not sure why that has not occured. Almost as if it missed us completely.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You might even get a refreshing nice cool breeze in the face too......LOL! Morning!


Heck Tampa, a nice day on Dauphin Island is a cool 25 mph breeze......
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


In 2005 we were already at the "G" storm. I thought we would have had 4 by now. Many of the experts thought we would have an early start to the CV season and that did not materialize. My original forecast was 17 storms. I won't change it but I do believe that 14 is more realistic (which is still 30% above normal. Especially with nothing on the horizon for the next 5-7 days.
agree I also predtited 17 storms now thinking 12 0r 13
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Quoting taco2me61:
Well I was going to go to Dauphin Island this afternoon but now I think I will be heading to Gulf Port MS for what ever is left of so-called Bonnie.... I might even get a water spout or too and wind of 20-25MPH....

Thats they way it looks as of right now....

Taco :o)




Are you on Spotternet ? I will be streaming this afternoon :) Nice day down here on Dauphin Island, AL
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Quoting taco2me61:
Well I was going to go to Dauphin Island this afternoon but now I think I will be heading to Gulf Port MS for what ever is left of so-called Bonnie.... I might even get a water spout or too and wind of 20-25MPH....

Thats they way it looks as of right now....

Taco :o)



Hey Taco, take a picture if you're lucky enough to catch one. No beach for me today, bar opens at 10:00, count me there.......
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good morning...
why does the NHC even bother putting a yellow circle with a percentage like this

They must be bored or something, but wow.


Ya, 1 freaking percent.......LOL. NOthing at all there in the Vorticity at 850mb except the ULL to the North of DR....but, there is a very strong 850mb Vorticity there too....so just may be a Spinner in the LOWER LEVEL directly under the ULL!!!????
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Quoting ackee:
Well seem like 2010 seasons will be active and not hyper active looks like it will be a seasons full with invests upper level low and African dust


Like 2008 and 2007. I don't get what some people don't understand, the conditions we're seeing out there right now are NORMAL. I'm not talking about you ackee, not specifically, but there are loads and loads of bloggers out there who still don't understand and will probably ignore this post.

Here's the shear anamolies. Look at the trends, not the current level of shear.

In the Gulf, that large spike in late June - Early July is thanks to Alex.


In the Caribbean


In the tropical Atlantic


In the sub-tropical Atlantic


How about SAL? Does this SAL honestly look as bad as it did in 2006? You must remember, 2005 had only 1 Cape Verde cyclone, Irene. Everything else developed from trough splits or tropical waves well away from the Cape Verdes.


ULLs are also normal for this time of year.

MJO? CFS predicts a downward yes, but not as hard as the GFS is. MJO has been trending towards our basin all season, because that is where all the heat is bundled up. Even if we go downward, it has been noted that the downward MJO might not act like normal thanks to the abnormally high SSTs.. we still might see large amounts of moisture. This is similar to 2005.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting StormSurgeon:


triple pffftttt! at least I don't live in NOLA.
Hope to share some good Gumbo some day.....Stay dry if possible.


Everyone cant be so Lucky to Live here...

How's the Mobile NFL Team a coming this year?

Always have room for a visitor here SS.
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A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

They put the chance at 1% with a yellow circle. 1%, that's just about as low as it gets.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


You might even get a refreshing nice cool breeze in the face too......LOL! Morning!


And Good Morning to you too LMBO....
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Quoting Patrap:


Any fool..even a Mobilian can see the LLC on the Visible.



Some seems to think they can tell a Squall from a Swirl.

But a Bunch yesterday followed the decoupled upper swirl ride North and forgot about the surface Circ.

Thats always phun to watch here.

Double pfffthhh.

LOL



triple pffftttt! at least I don't live in NOLA.
Hope to share some good Gumbo some day.....Stay dry if possible.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Well I was going to go to Dauphin Island this afternoon but now I think I will be heading to Gulf Port MS for what ever is left of so-called Bonnie.... I might even get a water spout or too and wind of 20-25MPH....

Thats they way it looks as of right now....

Taco :o)



You might even get a refreshing nice cool breeze in the face too......LOL! Morning!
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Good morning...
why does the NHC even bother putting a yellow circle with a percentage like this

They must be bored or something, but wow.
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Well I was going to go to Dauphin Island this afternoon but now I think I will be heading to Gulf Port MS for what ever is left of so-called Bonnie.... I might even get a water spout or too and wind of 20-25MPH....

Thats they way it looks as of right now....

Taco :o)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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