Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 181 - 131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Quoting robert88:
It will be interesting to see if the WRC's #'s out of Houston TX will hold true this season. They are the only agency calling for a below average season with 8 named storms and 5 only becoming hurricanes. FL MX and TX are beimg shown the highest risks for landfall for 2010. They put the research of sunspots in their forecasts. Here is what i found...

The WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.

In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.

The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.

"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.
Thanks for the information. Do you have a link? This might prove to be an interesting read between storms.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
BONNIE = BUST


The Only Report of Sustained Tropical Storm Winds was in South Florida, and was at Fowlery* Rocks (South of Miami). 46 Mph Sustained Winds and 53 ph Gusts.

Other Than that No tropical storm winds were recorded in miami and north.

It appears it will be downgraded next advisory, the NHC feels like it should keep it for 1 more advisory just in case.Or the reason why they are not downgrading it is because they dont want to seem that they have incorrectingly predicted at a team that this storm would make landfall with winds of 50mph, even though most models kept it weak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
It will be interesting to see if the WRC's #'s out of Houston TX will hold true this season. They are the only agency calling for a below average season with 8 named storms and 5 only becoming hurricanes. FL MX and TX are beimg shown the highest risks for landfall for 2010. They put the research of sunspots in their forecasts. Here is what i found...

The WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.

In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.

The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.

"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.


got a link I'd like to read more?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Gotta go hit the Gym and work my one pack! Wife is sick of me being on the computer with "no storms" LOL... My wife is a downcaster or a NAG CASTER.... LOL
You got one of those too?LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
177. SLU
Quoting thewindman:


Nothing predicted for the next week!!! We will be in August by then. Unless we have 8 storms in August and September they overhyped this year


Hey windman .. are you still here?

There's a strong wave that's going to emerge off Africa this weekend and a few models have been advertising a low developing along the wave axis next week so that's going to be the place to watch. Plus, it should be followed by another strong wave late next week which at least the GFS and GFS parallel have been very excited about lately.

So even with the downward motion expected, there could be some action to look forward too in the deep tropics next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOM Blob near Campeche is looking interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It will be interesting to see if the WRC's #'s out of Houston TX will hold true this season. They are the only agency calling for a below average season with 8 named storms and 5 only becoming hurricanes. FL MX and TX are being shown the highest risks for landfall for 2010. They put the research of sunspots in their forecasts. Here is what i found...

The WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.

In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.

The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.

"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropical storm bonnie was only a brief let up of what is to come however we should not show off 2010 hurricane season but it might just be a record season for what, i am not sure most likely sea surface temperatures but it could quickly turn into the worst case scenario where we might see a 3 systems at once or even 3 systems hitting at once i am not saying it can however we must prepare in events about to unfold and yes i do research on eather patterns (as a hobby)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My weather radio just alarmed to let me know that the tropical storm warning has been discontinued... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good morning...
why does the NHC even bother putting a yellow circle with a percentage like this

They must be bored or something, but wow.
This is not scientific by any means but I've noticed over the years that storms will kind of form or almost form in the same area close in time. It seems when an area has the right mix of conditions for development, that mix lasts for a few days. Maybe they're hedging their bets with their "1% probability?"
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting BahaHurican:
On the subject of African dust, it's been raining in the Sahel since yesterday.... dunno how much more heavy dust storms are going to make it off W Africa any time soon...

Dust is way down... luckily we are now at the low of MJO so have few waves...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather Channel Still Covering Bonnie as if it was still a tropical storm.

Really this Storm is Joke, The weather channel should cover that weather near chicago, those storms are way bigger than boonie's will ever be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
does that blob in the boc have any chance of development? i can see a little spin just to the north of the blob on visible. and i also see a spin at about 75w 20n. any thoughts?:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

I guess they are bust casters.

The SJU guys are GOOD...They give lots of in depth info about what's happening, hows, whys and possibilities and are rarely wrong. The fact that we are about to break a 51 year old record for maximum rainfall is important in it's own right besides the fact that one thing people people seem to discount is all this unorganized convection has used up a fair amount of energy.
SST have been heading towards normal
Look at SST's over PR..
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
Well seem like 2010 seasons will be active and not hyper active looks like it will be a seasons full with invests upper level low and African dust
On the subject of African dust, it's been raining in the Sahel since yesterday.... dunno how much more heavy dust storms are going to make it off W Africa any time soon...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting keithneese:


I've thought that since last night!


I've thought that since it crossed Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thewindman:


They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:
on visible it seems like it's opening into an open wave


I've thought that since last night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Storm, why is the Whole Pacific so cold?

I thought this was a sarcastic question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nothing going to happen in atlantic for long time thst SAL is entrenched
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ah, actually, Rood's blog is more about climate change (the climate is always changing...that methane comment was just an aside). My concern is more related to what these tropical storms have the potential to churn up and bring possibly hundreds of miles inland (in particular, 2-butoxyethanol, a carcinogenic neurotoxin, as a component of Corexit and the toxic soup of crude, benzene, etc.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on visible it seems like it's opening into an open wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TropicalDepression Bonnie was^heading for a NewOrleans,Louisiana landfall in ~13hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 26.7N84.4W, 27.0N85.1W, 27.6N86.1W-28.0N86.7W, 28.0N86.7W-29.8N89.5W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD.Bonnie had a heading of 307degrees (8degrees west of NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 46miles(~74kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~15mph(~25km/h),
and was 210miles(~421kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ A straightline projection does not forecast of what will happen in the future,
See blog1555post1853 for further explanation of what it does and doesn't do.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's what I believe should have been named..

TD - 92L
Alex - 93L (happened)
TD - 95L
TD2 - 96L (should have been classified the morning it made landfall in TX)
Bonnie - 97L (happened)

Without quickscat, 92L was hard to tell if it had a closed LLC or not, Ascat was the only thing we had, I bet if we had the reliable quickscat, 92L would have become a depression.
As for 95L, most argue that wasn't tropical but right before it came inland into LA, it had a nice burst of storms around the center and was probably tropical. I believe 95L will be mentioned in post analysis.

Below average season? No, We still have 3-4 months to go, I firmly believe we will see late season development as with all La Nina seasons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Why even circle it if you are only going to give it one percent?


So they know,that you know, that they have not taken the weekend off.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
I appreciate your posts Vince, but Dr. Ricky Roods blog is down the hall, second door on the left...you might find some takers there.

Thanks, I'll give it a look. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm back .... and looking forward to the 2010 season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why even circle it if you are only going to give it one percent?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bye-bye "boonie"...what am I going to do all day? Work?...nah...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thewindman:


They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess


Good point. I can't believe they kept it a tropical depression. It's just a blob....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thewindman:


They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess


Nope 95L should have been Bonnie j/k
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalGenesis:
Interesting Report from San Juan Weather Service. Is there a correlation between 1958 wet weather and the start of 2010?

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 8.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST START TO
JULY ON RECORD TO DATE. JULY 2010 IS NOW THE FOURTH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1961 WHEN 9.35 INCHES WERE
RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THROUGH
JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF 48.66 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 5.11
INCHES MORE THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND EIGHT DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS MORE
THAN LIKELY THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD. LIKE IN SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE
WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE
SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.99
HAD BEEN RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 23RD...A TOTAL OF
3.97 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.88 INCHES.

WHILE SEARCHING FOR THIS DATA...1958...1960 AND 1961 CAME OUT IN
SEVERAL OCASSIONS AS GOOD ANALOGS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WITH
1958 HAVING THE BEST ANALOG WHEN COMPARED TO 2010. THAT YEAR A TOTAL
OF TEN NAMED STORMS FORMED DURING THE HURRICANE SEASON WITH SEVEN
BECOMING HURRICANES OF WHICH FIVE BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THREE
STORMS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN AND ONE OF THEM BECAME A MAJOR
HURRICANE (HURRICANE ELLA).

I guess they are bust casters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting ready to kick over the props. Cloudy up top and we may get a sprinkle or two. Still gonna stay out of Ponchatrain just in case. Nice cool day for inland boating. Thanks Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
i can't believe they canceled the warnings. we are getting winds of at least 2 to 3 mph. the trees are barely moving. :)


They shouldn't have even named Bonnie. Just trying to fluf up the numbers of storms I guess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
147. IKE


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:
Ok I'm out too getting ready to go to Gulf Port all have a great day and I hope to have Pics for all to see....

Play nice in here....

Taco :o)
Taco, if ya see Cantore, tell him we said Hey :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Relax, it's only July 24th .. the season hasn't started as yet.



Nothing predicted for the next week!!! We will be in August by then. Unless we have 8 storms in August and September they overhyped this year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok I'm out too getting ready to go to Gulf Port all have a great day and I hope to have Pics for all to see....

Play nice in here....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
you happy now? lol

:)


I don't think Ike is happy at all, they didn't do a last advisory, next one at 5 p.m.

Ike, i'm just kidding around with you, great news for the oil spill :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
142. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
you happy now? lol

:)


Nice breeze blowing outside. Made my mowing much easier:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i can't believe they canceled the warnings. we are getting winds of at least 2 to 3 mph. the trees are barely moving. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


LOL That has got to be the most popular graph on the site. LOL


Needs to be posted as many times as possible for people to get the hint, cause it aint working lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
See ya'll after lunch.....got things to do. Take care and Geaux baby........

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.

you happy now? lol

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Masters is traveling and taking a break.

Things are sure to pop now.

it never fails...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no acid rain, or oil rain from this tropical poof:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
135. IKE
BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vince1:

What about the potential for there to be more than just rain dropped? Acid rain anyone? It seems like I'm talking to myself on this topic here. ;(
I appreciate your posts Vince, but Dr. Ricky Roods blog is down the hall, second door on the left...you might find some takers there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:

OMG you are not right while I'm LMBO

Nag-Caster Thats funny right there I tell Ya....

Taco :o)


Ha ha ha ha, that's why I'm single..........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters is traveling and taking a break.

Things are sure to pop now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129422
Quoting sammywammybamy:
RIP BONNIE.

hey bonnie looking better than she did last night. at least she picked up some storms.lol!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 181 - 131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
58 °F
Mostly Cloudy