Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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With all 3 storms now making landfall this year, I expected this pattern to continue throughout the season.
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Interesting activity in the BOC. Could this be Clyde on the run?

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229. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If a season of 8 storms occurs all these things must have to happen

1) La Nina must do a complete 180 and go almost vertically towards El Nino.

2) SST's must suddenly drop to below average from its record levels.

3) Trade level winds must drastically increase, very unlikely in a La Nina year.

4) Pressures must rapidly rise across the entire basin, not going to happen.

5) Africa must suddenly have a very dry rainy season.

6) Downward MJO must become stuck in our basin.

Very unlikely that all the factors set up for the last 6 months will do a complete 180 in a matter of weeks.


You need to be given a gold medal for that post.

There's nothing out there to suggest that only 8 storms will form. We will be lucky to get away with even 15.

Like i've been saying for weeks now, looking at the overall conditions, we have all the ingredients for a severe season. It's only a matter of time before the commencement of the pyrotechnics.

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Quoting 7544:
yep is there a ssmall spin by the bahamas on visable sat tia


ULL
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Quoting truecajun:
our local mets are saying to expect 1-2 inches of rain within the next 24 hours, but they won't say when it will start (banging my head against wall) i've never been the birthday party type and finally when i decide to plan one with a theme (plates balloons and all) it's going to rain, but i don't know when.
As far as the percent chance of rain goes, the hourly weather graph from the NWS is the same for the whole afternoon. But, looking at the radar, initial expectation is that you're right on about the rain having a better chance after 3, but not a huge difference. Still doesn't mean it WILL rain then...
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Quoting Patrap:
Forecast for East Baton Rouge

Rest of Today

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. East winds to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.


thankyou pat. i hope they are right. we are sticking with 3. i feel like some silly shallow psycho birthday mom LOL!
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Quoting StormW:


Ted, ya changed your post.

Dat's ok, I'll say it...they're totally off.


Wanted to make it short 'n simple. 88% better than Dr. Gray? Musta forgotten the '-' at the end of their figures. They even deleted some of the predictions so it doesn't seem a total bust!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ROFL lets add to that!

2003 was predicted to be below normal
2004 was predicted to only have 7


So basically each year they predicted 10 storms or less LOL.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


2005 was predicted to have only 10 storms.
2006 was predicted to be active.
2007 was predicted to have 7 storms.
So much for 88% better than Dr. Gray.



ROFL lets add to that!

2003 was predicted to be below normal
2004 was predicted to only have 7.

Whatever these guys say, expect the opposite.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 24th, with Video

Yay! Levi! Now who's missing? MH09!
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220. KYDan
Quoting StormW:


Better yet, 2005


Link
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"Its more like a Mousse, kinda like pudding"..
Haley Barbour,







"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
218. 7544
yep is there a ssmall spin by the bahamas on visable sat tia
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Quoting StormW:


Actually, it's not.


Only on this blog it appears. Guess ya have to have steady action all season to prevent that.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If a season of 8 storms occurs all these things must have to happen

1) La Nina must do a complete 180 and go almost vertically towards El Nino.

2) SST's must suddenly drop to below average from its record levels.

3) Trade level winds must drastically increase, very unlikely in a La Nina year.

4) Pressures must rapidly rise across the entire basin, not going to happen.

5) Africa must suddenly have a very dry rainy season.

6) Downward MJO must become stuck in our basin.

Very unlikely that all the factors set up for the last 6 months will do a complete 180 in a matter of weeks.


good points. i think that God is just giving BP some time to get those releif wells in place, then the predicted 2010 season will get going
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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 24th, with Video
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Forecast for East Baton Rouge

Rest of Today

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. East winds to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
Quoting robert88:
http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/pastout.html


2005 was predicted to have only 10 storms.
2006 was predicted to be active.
2007 was predicted to have 7 storms.

So much for 88% better than Dr. Gray.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
Quoting vince1:
Ah, actually, Rood's blog is more about climate change (the climate is always changing...that methane comment was just an aside). My concern is more related to what these tropical storms have the potential to churn up and bring possibly hundreds of miles inland (in particular, 2-butoxyethanol, a carcinogenic neurotoxin, as a component of Corexit and the toxic soup of crude, benzene, etc.)


I'm pretty sure not much will get carried other than just a slimy mess. 2-butoxyethanol is a solvent... that along with the other volatile compunds found in the oil evaporate quickly, and should be gone before ever moving inland. As part of my job I have spoken to one of the envrionmental cleanup contractors handling the beaches, and I am told that if the oil spill should wash in and affect properties, there is not currently a hefty cleanup protocol in place, outside of normal procedures.

...and from Wikipedia: "2-Butoxyethanol usually decomposes in the environment within a few days and has not been identified as a major environmental contaminant. It is not known to bioaccumulate.[14]"
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Quoting StormW:


Looks like it will clip the very eastern portion of LA...just a tad bit left of forecast track.
I think You had mentioned a small window for a little intensification before landfall yesterday? Has that passed?
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our local mets are saying to expect 1-2 inches of rain within the next 24 hours, but they won't say when it will start (banging my head against wall) i've never been the birthday party type and finally when i decide to plan one with a theme (plates balloons and all) it's going to rain, but i don't know when.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
Quoting 7544:
morning gfs brings sonthing to so fla coming in from the bahamas



Link

It also develops something East of the Antilles at 126hrs, and puts it south of PR at 168hrs.
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http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/pastout.html
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Start of the quiet time... everyone relax and reload.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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If a season of 8 storms occurs all these things must have to happen

1) La Nina must do a complete 180 and go almost vertically towards El Nino.

2) SST's must suddenly drop to below average from its record levels.

3) Trade level winds must drastically increase, very unlikely in a La Nina year.

4) Pressures must rapidly rise across the entire basin, not going to happen.

5) Africa must suddenly have a very dry rainy season.

6) Downward MJO must become stuck in our basin.

Very unlikely that all the factors set up for the last 6 months will do a complete 180 in a matter of weeks.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
201. 7544
morning gfs brings sonthing to so fla coming in from the bahamas



Link
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hi everyone. i'm arguing with my sister in law about moving our daughters' double birthday party up an hour or two. it's a swimming party and she picked 3 to 5 for the time. i'm trying to convince her that we should move it up to 1 or 2 due to the rain coming. i'm in the baton rouge area. from what i'm seeing - looks like rain at 3 or 4? what say you? it's just family members, so it wouldn't be a big deal to move it up, but i've baked cakes from scratch ALLL day yesterday as well as cooked fajitas - from 9am to 12am.
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StormW Does Bonnies COC look like it will landfall a little E of LA?
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Quoting vince1:
Ah, actually, Rood's blog is more about climate change (the climate is always changing...that methane comment was just an aside). My concern is more related to what these tropical storms have the potential to churn up and bring possibly hundreds of miles inland (in particular, 2-butoxyethanol, a carcinogenic neurotoxin, as a component of Corexit and the toxic soup of crude, benzene, etc.)


Dude - you know there's a lot worse indigenous chemicals in Macondo than any of this Corexit stuff, right?
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I see the amount of activity for the season is still in question LOL.
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Quoting robert88:


http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutapr12.pdf


TY much
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Quoting robert88:
It will be interesting to see if the WRC's #'s out of Houston TX will hold true this season. They are the only agency calling for a below average season with 8 named storms and 5 only becoming hurricanes. FL MX and TX are being shown the highest risks for landfall for 2010. They put the research of sunspots in their forecasts. Here is what i found...

The WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.

In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.

The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.

"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.


I'd like to see their predictions for 2008, 2007 and 2006 please.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Disorganized Bonnie heading towards the Gulf Coast


Yay! 456!
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Quoting HyDrO420:


got a link I'd like to read more?


http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutapr12.pdf
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Is that the Invest that was there before dragged back out over water by the Upper Level Low?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
looks like COC is takin it's last breaths...

Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8926
Here's what I believe, the season has been weak so far. Its 7 weeks to the midpoint of this season. A lot could happen or wait and see could happen. If we get a storm each week from now to the end of November, we'll have racked up about 18 storms. Hard to imagine hitting that level given the recent history.
I think 18 names is becoming an unreasonable forecast at this time.
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Good Morning

Blog Update

Disorganized Bonnie heading towards the Gulf Coast

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Quoting robert88:
It will be interesting to see if the WRC's #'s out of Houston TX will hold true this season. They are the only agency calling for a below average season with 8 named storms and 5 only becoming hurricanes. FL MX and TX are beimg shown the highest risks for landfall for 2010. They put the research of sunspots in their forecasts. Here is what i found...

The WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.

In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.

The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.

"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.
Thanks for the information. Do you have a link? This might prove to be an interesting read between storms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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