Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Coastal Flood Statement

Statement as of 9:53 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

Astronomical high tides were occurring this morning with some
locations reporting one-half foot above normal. As tropical
depression moves closer to the mouth of the Mississippi River
later this evening... tides are expected to increase to around 1 to
2 feet above normal overnight. The greater tide increases may
occur during the astronomical low tide. This may cause some minor
inundation of low lying areas along the coast mainly between Port
Fourchon Louisiana to Bay of St Louis missisippi.

Persistent northeast winds today may pose a minor flood threat to
Grand Isle due to water pushed from upper Barataria Bay.

As Bonnie moves inland and weakens... tides will be able to settle
to near normal levels later Sunday into Monday.

Interests near the coast and within the tidal marshes should be
aware of increasing water levels this afternoon and tonight. Move
equipment and property out of flood prone areas. Some access roads
into the coastal areas may have water crossing the roadway at
times.


24/rr


Wind Advisory

Statement as of 9:56 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

... Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 am CDT
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 am
CDT Sunday.

Tropical Depression Bonnie was located over the northern Gulf of
Mexico moving toward southeast Louisiana late this morning. While
the system has weakened and is no longer a tropical storm... it
may still produce strong wind gusts over portions of southeast
Louisiana and coastal Mississippi through tonight.

The stronger winds are expected to reach areas near the mouth of
the Mississippi River by late afternoon... overspreading the New
Orleans Metro area and coastal Mississippi by late this evening.

As the depression makes landfall and moves inland... wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph are expected... especially in stronger
thunderstorms and squalls. As Bonnie moves well inland
overnight... stronger wind gusts are expected to diminish before
sunrise Sunday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 40 mph or greater are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


Manning
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279. Relix
Nothing in the horizon for now right guys?
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Quoting neonlazer:
Looks like Bonnie is dying completely? Looks like the lower circulation clouds are dying out..


There's some rain on the radar just south of my location in Mobile. Looks like it's just scattered out there. There are some stronger storms south of LA complete with special marine warnings.
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Looks like Bonnie is dying completely? Looks like the lower circulation clouds are dying out..
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Quoting MahFL:
it's fun to watch a naked swirl make landfall though.


LOL
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274. vis0
Bonnie barely "bonafide", but its not the time spent at 40mph rotation, but that it did reach TS characteristics...maybe at years end it can be called 1/2 a storm? ...said w/ a smirk.
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273. MahFL
it's fun to watch a naked swirl make landfall though.
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I didn't even know anyone was callin for her to be a hurricane.
I know Dr. Masters put like 15% chance of it becoming a hurricane and a few of us on here were saying it might make hurricane status before hitting florida..but nope!
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271. OSMS
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I didn't even know anyone was callin for her to be a hurricane.


Why would anyone wish for a storm to become a hurricane?
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Yeah,,that protect Wildlife Agenda a tough Crowd with that Hard sell.

pffthh.

Go back to BP's Hqtrs wit dat,...
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Quoting robert88:


It seems they are more focused on landfalls. They are actually more accurate than any other agency when it comes to that. I know the #'s are off.

"The main purpose is to indicate which section of the U.S. coast has the highest risk of landfall," Hasling told me. And according to her, Florida has the best chance of being hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year. There's also a greater chance of a storm hitting Texas than the East Coast of the U.S.



You make a good point, I should have read further.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
I sit and giggle to myself when I see people write that Bonnie was a bust. Nobody was forecasting her to be a Cat 3 Hurricane! Some tropical cyclones develop into monsters. Some don't. As simple as that.
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265. OSMS
Quoting Chicklit:
Growing number of bird deaths due to BP spill

Good morning, more grim news about the birds in the GOM region.


The current populatin of Brown Pelicans is an estimated 650,000. The White Pelican population is 100,000. The Deep Horizon well blow out, despite what the "well meaning" organizations want you to beleive, is not going to threaten the existence of the species.

Any needless death of an animal is unexcusable,
as is the actions of the animal groups that use events such as this to promote their agendas.
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Quoting Capnbilll:
I nominate Bonnie for the most overhyped storm of the year. IMHO this nomination was long overdue. This storm never looked anything like a hurricane its entire path. If fack it looks more like one now,(with only 1 active feeder band) as its dying gasp than it ever did. All along it was just a big windbag. We get bigger thunderstorms on a summer afternoon.
If the ULL hadn't have stay where it was..it might have been a different story. Just the life of forcasting hurricanes :)
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Dude - you know there's a lot worse indigenous chemicals in Macondo than any of this Corexit stuff, right?

I mentioned benzene, didn't I? ;) I don't know how that justifies adding further toxicity just to limit BP's liabilities.
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Quoting Capnbilll:
I nominate Bonnie for the most overhyped storm of the year. IMHO this nomination was long overdue. This storm never looked anything like a hurricane its entire path. If fack it looks more like one now,(with only 1 active feeder band) as its dying gasp than it ever did. All along it was just a big windbag. We get bigger thunderstorms on a summer afternoon.


We just had a wind gust to about 1mph here in Mobile. This is a joke...lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


ROFL lets add to that!

2003 was predicted to be below normal
2004 was predicted to only have 7.

Whatever these guys say, expect the opposite.


It seems they are more focused on landfalls. They are actually more accurate than any other agency when it comes to that. I know the #'s are off.

"The main purpose is to indicate which section of the U.S. coast has the highest risk of landfall," Hasling told me. And according to her, Florida has the best chance of being hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year. There's also a greater chance of a storm hitting Texas than the East Coast of the U.S.

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I nominate Bonnie for the most overhyped storm of the year. IMHO this nomination was long overdue. This storm never looked anything like a hurricane its entire path. If fack it looks more like one now,(with only 1 active feeder band) as its dying gasp than it ever did. All along it was just a big windbag. We get bigger thunderstorms on a summer afternoon.
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456, if you are still around can you answer the question I posed on your blog?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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if the area in the western Gulf of Campeche was any further E it would be interesting. Meanwhile disorganized convection S of Jamacia is entering an area of relatively low shear...but NHC isnt worried :)
Nothing out there in the Ensembles. The big story is persistent 590+ dm heights at h500 thru most of the central US..the heatwave and northern MCC's continue...
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Quoting Weather456:
With all 3 storms now making landfall this year, I expected this pattern to continue throughout the season.


An insightful observation.

It makes me wonder if God or Mother Nature, are planning to run the table this year.





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Quoting Chicklit:
Some oiled birds were released here in the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge in June but I haven't heard of anything since.
It's quite an amazing and fantastic place.

Refuge


to lighten things up a bit about the birds. we watched a clip on the news about 2 weeks ago showing a "bird rescue official guy" teaching volunteers how to clean the pelicans.

he started off his speech with his thick coonass accent "naw listen, deez birdz aint gonna thank u, dey wanna kiyl u, u unnerstand?" it was so funny. the faces on all the volunteers changed.

pelicans ARE some big ol' birds with big ol' beeks! i never really thought about the fight they must put up when humans are messing with them.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning Levi. You left 95L. Here in PR it has been a very rainy year so far. A question to you. Has a year with record rainfall may be a bad omen for hurricane strikes at that place?


Generally yes it is cause for concern as above-average rainfall implies increased tropical activity and convection in the area, and the Caribbean islands are definitely at high risk this year.
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Quoting Weather456:
With all 3 storms now making landfall this year, I expected this pattern to continue throughout the season.


I agree, landfalling storms definitely should be a problem. Bonnie likely outlined the predominant storm track for the season over or near the northern islands. On a hopeful note, there is a fair chance of recurvature on the northern side of the track envelope.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 24th, with Video


Good morning Levi. You left 95L. Here in PR it has been a very rainy year so far. A question to you. Has a year with record rainfall may be a bad omen for hurricane strikes at that place?
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Looks like bonnie is making a jog due west!..remember..if you live in a house made of dust..this is still a very dangerous storm! :)
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Some oiled birds were released here in the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge in June but I haven't heard of anything since.
It's quite an amazing and fantastic place.

Refuge
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Weather456:


Hey. It's been a while, where did you run off to?


Needed to gain some of my sanity back lol.
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Quoting robert88:
http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/pastout.html
I appreciate your post. Obviously, it's not a absolute predictor but I believe your point or observation is that it is just as accurate as well respected predictors. I haven't seen that from the data so far. I'll have to read more into it later.

The museum, however, looks like a great place to learn from looking at the home page of the website. 'Looks like they work with lots of children. Even if some of their climatological theories are not well accepted and as long as they're not dogmatic, it appears they're encouraging children to be interested in weather and science which is a good thing IMHO.

Their mission statement:

Our Mission
WRC advances the science of weather and the knowledge of the weather's impact on the global community through research, prediction and education in order to inspire America's next generation of scientists and engineers.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Patrap:
"Its more like a Mousse, kinda like pudding"..
Haley Barbour,







"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.



awwww. i liked it. did you know that pelicans stay together as families. they choose a mate and after breeding, their young stay with them until they choose a mate. knowing that the oiled birds are being split up from their families when they are rescued is so sad. i wonder if the rescuers try to keep those rescued in the same areas together (catch and release them together??)
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238. SLU
Lots of westward movement so far this year


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http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2006hurendnov.pdf
They only issue 1 forecast and do not update throughout the season.
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Quoting hahaguy:
Hey 456, long time no see.


Hey. It's been a while, where did you run off to?
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Growing number of bird deaths due to BP spill

Good morning, more grim news about the birds in the GOM region.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Hey 456, long time no see.
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With all 3 storms now making landfall this year, I expected this pattern to continue throughout the season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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