Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3431. xcool
tropical weather, or the topic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoa! 12z ECMWF. At 192 hours a tropical depression..



At 240 hours looks like Two tropical storms in the Caribbean.. this could get interesting.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Wow I think I came in here at the wrong time....
Palin " Very Hot"
and Obama I did not vote for....

Just Love the Weather....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone get a yellow circle on the map please....






Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3425. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks like i picked a bad week to quit sniffen glue
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
We could discuss which met is the hottest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3422. xcool
tropical weather, or the topic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol do I get a cookie? ;D FWIW, I think all the Palin jokes are funny too ... it's not that Obama jokes are hard to come by, just that when you have characters like Palin around, who really needs to put in the effort to crack one on a black guy and risk getting declared racist =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:
Guys, why are you talking about politics.....


No storms.... LOL
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3418. angiest
Quoting Floodman:


Me too...I was raised to never discuss religion or politics in polite company...to many profanities involved in both of those subjects


There are places where politics should never enter, we need havens. Unfortunately it still tracks us down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LightningCharmer:
So which one would pronounce, "orographic lifting" better...or perhaps, "fujiwhara effect?" Personally, I think, it would be a tossup but hey, that's just me...LOL


Niiice! Well said!

Okay folks, can we stop with the politics already?
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OK Mik you get the last one if ya want it. I'm thru.
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3414. unf97
Quoting tkeith:
ah hell...

guess I'll go to a political blog and discuss weather...later yall :)


I agree! Come on folks let's leave politics or discussion of political figures off this blog. Folks, now you all know better than that.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting SouthALWX:
okay.
Why is Barack Obama so thin and scrawny?
.
.
.
.
If he were any heavier he wouldn't be able to walk on water.


That's the spirit!
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Quoting tkeith:
ah hell...

guess I'll go to a political blog and discuss weather...later yall :)


LOL...my brother!
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I didnt start it....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:
okay.
Why is Barack Obama so thin and scrawny?
.
.
.
.
If he were any heavier he wouldn't be able to walk on water.


There you go...THAT'S fuuny!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:
With regards to Sarah Palin and her vocabulary, someone suggested she use a thesaurus, but she said that was impossible since they were extinct...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'll bet she knows how to pronounce "corpsman" which is more than obama knows.
So which one would pronounce, "orographic lifting" better...or perhaps, "fujiwhara effect?" Personally, I think, it would be a tossup but hey, that's just me...LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
Quoting tkeith:
ah hell...

guess I'll go to a political blog and discuss weather...later yall :)

you betcha!
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Quoting mikatnight:


Just...not that funny. Surely (Shirley?) someone can do better than that.



Wasnt meant as a joke...
You on the other hand....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3405. tkeith
ah hell...

guess I'll go to a political blog and discuss weather...later yall :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
okay.
Why is Barack Obama so thin and scrawny?
.
.
.
.
If he were any heavier he wouldn't be able to walk on water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What would you have said Mik, had it had been Bush who had mis-pronounced "Corpsman"?


Just...not that funny. Surely (Shirley?) someone can do better than that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
What was Palins predictions on the amount of hurricane activity we'll see this year?

I haven't seen Obama's predictions either...

anybody know?


Obama said 57 and Palin said "I dunno I think it will be a mavricky year."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3399. tkeith
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


She said and I quote " Here I am....rock ya like a hurricane..."
I thought that was the Scorpions...
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3398. Squid28
Quoting Floodman:
You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**


Flood, sadly I wore out my soapbox on this subject last year. I feel the same as you on the subject but as soon as one poster figures it out by experience another one always replaces them in the posting ranks of wanting a storm to hit. Sadly they do not understand the emotional, physical, and financial effects a storm can inflict on an individual, much less entire communities. I just internalize the emotions nowadays, as yelling at them will just result in being put in time out.

Karma...

By the way getting pasted in Shoreacres right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:


So true Floodman. There is no help for someone who thinks Africa is a country.

Ok, I am done with the political talk.


Me too...I was raised to never discuss religion or politics in polite company...to many profanities involved in both of those subjects
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
What was Palins predictions on the amount of hurricane activity we'll see this year?

I haven't seen Obama's predictions either...

anybody know?


She said and I quote " Here I am....rock ya like a hurricane..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


That whats why it was a tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3388. tkeith
What was Palins predictions on the amount of hurricane activity we'll see this year?

I haven't seen Obama's predictions either...

anybody know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I worked the relief effort from an AFB close to San Ann for Hurrican Ivan back in 08. Once you have seen the eyes of those who have lost everything then your persepctive on storms change.

I hear ya bro.


I sat under Jeanne in 2004 because I really didn;t have a chouice; I didn't want to get caught out on I95 in a traffic jam...I was about 4 miles from where the "Official landfall" took place...she was a medium CAT3 and yes, it was pretty damned cool; I'm a midwesterner and I've been through a number of tornadoes but nothing like dealing with the eye of a CAT3...

My rules for hurricanes: if I must, I will stick around for a CAT1 or even a 2 but if I can run, I will. I require a minimum of two counties between me and the landfall of a CAT3; I require 300-400 miles for a CAT4 and I need at least two STATES between me and the landfall of a CAT5...I'm no coward, but I'm no fool either
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3384. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Considering I'm probably going to buy a generator within the next year or so, I'll keep this information in mind. Thanks.


No problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**


LOL--I have to agree with that Flood. I have never enjoyed the suffering and destruction these storms bring. The irony is that it is the very thing that drew me to this field many moons ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.