Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


Exactly...

July 24th, 2005....7-3-2.
July 24th, 2010....2-1-0.


Hurricane Cindy was no slouch too..a real late night wallop no one expected..as most ,well 300,000 woke up powerless here.

And they were still debris in the Playgrounds from tress come August when K hit from all the tree damage from Cindy.,..

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I truly believe it is all about timing

think about it, the timing worked just right in 2005 to have 7 named storms

so lets look at 2010, we have had 2 named storms, 1 TD and 4 very strong invests

What if TD 2 and the other 4 invests were timed just a little bit different, is it possible we could have had 7 storms if that was the case? I would think so


Exactly...we could easily have had a lot more than we have right now, and I still believe 92L was our first named storm. It's been a very active year so far as expected....I see nothing to bust my forecast.
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308 is second penetration today isnt it skyepony?

I saw on yer blog earlier..309 was in earlier.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 14:34:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°51'N 86°34'W (27.85N 86.5667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the SSW (199°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 806m (2,644ft) at 925mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 26kts (From the NE at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.94 inHg) - Extrapolated
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325. unf97
Quoting StormW:


What happens is, when we get into August and September, there is a slight change to the pattern, and the ULL's should become somewhat smaller in size, and we should see some of them "timed" with waves coming from Africa, as far as being able to ventilate them, rather than shearing them. Not all...again, it's a matter of timing then during those months.


Thanks Storm! Yeah August and September will really be interesting this season.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
324. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


The similarities continue....difference is that by this time in 2005 we were at 7 storms.


Exactly...

July 24th, 2005....7-3-2.
July 24th, 2010....2-1-0.
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Quoting Levi32:


The similarities continue....difference is that by this time in 2005 we were at 7 storms.


I truly believe it is all about timing

think about it, the timing worked just right in 2005 to have 7 named storms

so lets look at 2010, we have had 2 named storms, 1 TD and 4 very strong invests

What if TD 2 and the other 4 invests were timed just a little bit different, is it possible we could have had 7 storms if that was the case? I would think so
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Quoting StormW:
JULY 23, 2005


JULY 22, 2010


Any questions?


The similarities continue....difference is that by this time in 2005 we were at 7 storms.
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320. BA
Quoting LightningCharmer:
What about Home Depot and Lowes plywood?...LOL


well that's a different story ;)
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319. BA
joe bastardi called bonnie well...and tried to warn ppl nhc was over doing this one

I guess that's one of the reasons accuweather pro isn't free :)
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Quoting StormW:


Double yep. I truly believe the GFS model, the chart some folks have been posting, is too overdone.



Definitely.
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Quoting BA:


if you are trading crude futures based on storms and weather, you will be broke real quick, the price does not nec. move in conjunction with events that would seem to make sense, simple as that
What about Home Depot and Lowes plywood?...LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
315. unf97
Hello Storm!

Storm do you think the presence of these Upper Level Lows we have seen to this point will be on the decrease as we head into the meat of hurricane season in August and September?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
314. BA
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
I thought I'd maybe summarize what happened with Bonnie and the oil patch just as a surrogate for when we get a system (system period, not major) in the Gulf. In case you are interested, otherwise disregard.

On Wed & Thurs people started shutting in production of both oil and gas. It picked up yesterday. And this is with the NHC only forecasting minimal TS winds.

The market responded with crude up 2.50 or so on Wed when pre-Bonnie started getting reported in the mainstream media. It was up a bit on Thursday as well. Down a bit yesterday but up week on week by a few dollars.

Now the reduction in crude production is real but the reality is that inventories are above the 5 year average for crude in the US. So a few days won't make a huge dent to put supplies in any precious position.

Same for mogas and diesel.

From everyone I've talked to that is more experienced than me, companies will typically start when TS winds are forecast but moving on Wednesday when it was still a wave/depression is unusual. I heard folks chalking that up to this season being broadcast as overactive.

All this being said - what you should note is that any system we have in the Gulf (and as 456 pointed out - we seem to have a pattern) expect the price to rise in the short term, but fall the next week assuming it's not a major that damages rigs and refineries. If it's a major - I could easily see 85 to 90$ WTI with a corresponding increase in mogas and diesel prices. That would be pure speculation in the long term as the fundamentals point to weak demand in the Atlantic basing for fuels.


if you are trading crude futures based on storms and weather, you will be broke real quick, the price does not nec. move in conjunction with events that would seem to make sense, simple as that
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311. Skyepony (Mod)
AF308 is up & almost there..not far to travel.

surge..
Grand Ile 2ft
Waveland 3 ft
Pensecola 2ft

Wave hieghts..in 33hrs (about the heighest I could find)
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. It looks like the European models want to take the MJO back to our basin as well too.


Yup.

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I thought I'd maybe summarize what happened with Bonnie and the oil patch just as a surrogate for when we get a system (system period, not major) in the Gulf. In case you are interested, otherwise disregard.

On Wed & Thurs people started shutting in production of both oil and gas. It picked up yesterday. And this is with the NHC only forecasting minimal TS winds.

The market responded with crude up 2.50 or so on Wed when pre-Bonnie started getting reported in the mainstream media. It was up a bit on Thursday as well. Down a bit yesterday but up week on week by a few dollars.

Now the reduction in crude production is real but the reality is that inventories are above the 5 year average for crude in the US. So a few days won't make a huge dent to put supplies in any precious position.

Same for mogas and diesel.

From everyone I've talked to that is more experienced than me, companies will typically start when TS winds are forecast but moving on Wednesday when it was still a wave/depression is unusual. I heard folks chalking that up to this season being broadcast as overactive.

All this being said - what you should note is that any system we have in the Gulf (and as 456 pointed out - we seem to have a pattern) expect the price to rise in the short term, but fall the next week assuming it's not a major that damages rigs and refineries. If it's a major - I could easily see 85 to 90$ WTI with a corresponding increase in mogas and diesel prices. That would be pure speculation in the long term as the fundamentals point to weak demand in the Atlantic basing for fuels.
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308. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably the latter.


Yeah eventually I think so too CybrTeddy. But it is an interesting feature to observe nonetheless.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting unf97:
I have noticed that the area along the Mexican coast in the BOC which was once 98L seems to be meandering or straddling right at the coast. Actually it has meandered around right at the coast for the past 36 hours. It looks to be pulsating convection and looks rather vigourous currently. Is there a possibility this system may ridenorth along the Mexican coast or will it eventually move enough inland into Mexico and die out?


Probably the latter.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23492
306. unf97
I have noticed that the area along the Mexican coast in the BOC which was once 98L seems to be meandering or straddling right at the coast. Actually it has meandered around right at the coast for the past 36 hours. It looks to be pulsating convection and looks rather vigourous currently. Is there a possibility this system may ride north along the Mexican coast or will it eventually move enough inland into Mexico and die out?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Levi32:


That's much more reasonable than the GFS, which is way overdone on the downward pulse.


Yea. It looks like the European models want to take the MJO back to our basin as well too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


You make a good point, I should have read further.


After reading their verifications over the years I will be paying close attention to their agency for strike probability locations and possible strength. They have done a pretty darn good job with that aspect of their forecasting.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's much more reasonable than the GFS, which is way overdone on the downward pulse.



yup could see the C and D systems in the next 2 weeks
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS long range is sniffing out potential GOM and CV action within the first week of August. The CFS indicates that we should be in a favorable MJO for most of the month of August.


Figure 1. GFS long-range forecast. System in the GOM and a CV system.



Figure2. CFS long-range forecast.


That's much more reasonable than the GFS, which is way overdone on the downward pulse.
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Venice,La. WunderMap®


Save or send this map to someone as you see it now.
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Current Conditions

Boothville, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 35 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
90 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 7 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 16 mph
Pressure: 30.03 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 104 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 2.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft
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296. SLU
The 12Z GFS predicts the start of the Cape Verde season in early August.
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295. unf97
Good afternoon everyone!

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Relix strong wave next saturday for us in Puerto Rico.
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GFS long range is sniffing out potential GOM and CV action within the first week of August. The CFS indicates that we should be in a favorable MJO for most of the month of August.


Figure 1. GFS long-range forecast. System in the GOM and a CV system.



Figure2. CFS long-range forecast.
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I just hope you Gulf people and those within 500 miles of the shore have seen this. If not, please view it (<5 minutes). It's a summation by Dr. Chris Pincetich (marine biologist/toxicologist) of the effects that the chemicals being used have on biological processes:

Youtube vid
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Wow, that ULL riding with Bonnie really saved the Gulf Coast. Every time she fires off storms they get blown away.
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290. 7544
spin the bammas will bring more rain to so fla on mon as a wave

yap agree jason
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXSAT GOM Viz Loop


One of the best GOM satellites there is!(and coolest)
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Quoting P451:
Where we stand so far:



Hello there P451. The average number of storms forming after Aug 14th in 95, 98, and 05 is 14-15 storms. Projected with what we have now and you have 16-17 storms. However, I fully expect at least 2 more named storms before August 15th. I like the energy currently exiting the African Coast late next week as it nears the Caribbean.
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Just rocking and rolling in the philippines.

24-JUL-2010 11:56:25 6.57 123.65 5.1 610.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 11:10:46 6.72 123.65 4.7 606.4 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 09:46:49 6.69 123.65 4.7 609.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 05:35:01 6.19 123.60 6.2 563.9 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 05:01:38 6.89 123.85 4.4 597.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 01:44:44 6.62 123.70 5.3 592.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
24-JUL-2010 00:50:13 6.57 123.64 4.9 581.5 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
23-JUL-2010 23:15:08 6.75 123.27 7.4 616.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
23-JUL-2010 22:51:11 6.48 123.53 7.4 575.6 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
23-JUL-2010 22:19:35 6.76 123.54 5.4 594.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
23-JUL-2010 22:08:11 6.69 123.45 6.9 603.8 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
22-JUL-2010 22:26:47 1.38 126.86 5.2 52.8 NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA
22-JUL-2010 04:45:01 -2.93 128.02 4.8 13.0 CERAM SEA
21-JUL-2010 09:16:05 3.04 128.23 6.1 108.2 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
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NEXSAT GOM Viz Loop
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Quoting scottc42:


I'm pretty sure not much will get carried other than just a slimy mess. 2-butoxyethanol is a solvent... that along with the other volatile compunds found in the oil evaporate quickly, and should be gone before ever moving inland. As part of my job I have spoken to one of the envrionmental cleanup contractors handling the beaches, and I am told that if the oil spill should wash in and affect properties, there is not currently a hefty cleanup protocol in place, outside of normal procedures.

...and from Wikipedia: "2-Butoxyethanol usually decomposes in the environment within a few days and has not been identified as a major environmental contaminant. It is not known to bioaccumulate.[14]"

Thanks for your comment. It's amazing how much differing information is out there. I have heard the opposite in terms of bioaccumulation (but this is in relation to the chemical composition of Corexit itself, not 2-Butoxyethanol alone). That said, if you've been following citizen reporting (and even some local news media in the southeast), there have been a seemingly unusual high number of spotted/wilted/burnt vegetation since May across the south, southeast, midwest and even northeast.

Wikipedia's entry also mentions bioaccumulation and other nasty disorders associated with the dispersant(s): Corexit on Wikipedia
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Coastal Flood Statement

Statement as of 9:53 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

Astronomical high tides were occurring this morning with some
locations reporting one-half foot above normal. As tropical
depression moves closer to the mouth of the Mississippi River
later this evening... tides are expected to increase to around 1 to
2 feet above normal overnight. The greater tide increases may
occur during the astronomical low tide. This may cause some minor
inundation of low lying areas along the coast mainly between Port
Fourchon Louisiana to Bay of St Louis missisippi.

Persistent northeast winds today may pose a minor flood threat to
Grand Isle due to water pushed from upper Barataria Bay.

As Bonnie moves inland and weakens... tides will be able to settle
to near normal levels later Sunday into Monday.

Interests near the coast and within the tidal marshes should be
aware of increasing water levels this afternoon and tonight. Move
equipment and property out of flood prone areas. Some access roads
into the coastal areas may have water crossing the roadway at
times.


24/rr


Wind Advisory

Statement as of 9:56 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

... Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 am CDT
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 am
CDT Sunday.

Tropical Depression Bonnie was located over the northern Gulf of
Mexico moving toward southeast Louisiana late this morning. While
the system has weakened and is no longer a tropical storm... it
may still produce strong wind gusts over portions of southeast
Louisiana and coastal Mississippi through tonight.

The stronger winds are expected to reach areas near the mouth of
the Mississippi River by late afternoon... overspreading the New
Orleans Metro area and coastal Mississippi by late this evening.

As the depression makes landfall and moves inland... wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph are expected... especially in stronger
thunderstorms and squalls. As Bonnie moves well inland
overnight... stronger wind gusts are expected to diminish before
sunrise Sunday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 40 mph or greater are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


Manning
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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