Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting unf97:


NHC analyzed the BOC disturbance as a surface trough right along the coast.

2 p.m. NHC TWD

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST INTO S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS
TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

This area has been nearly stationary for over the past 24 hours. Looks to be meandering but it probably will move inland Mexico in the short term. It is very interesting to watch and you can detect a spin on the satellite loops right on the Southern Mexico coast.


I noticed that too
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting TexasHurricane:


so most storms will go to the east side of the gulf?


No that's not what I mean. The east gulf is at risk like everyone else, but my point was that climatology took Bonnie north, but she went west instead, indicating what most of the storms will do this year, tending to stay on a WNW course longer before recurving.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
I think I just saw a pine needle get wrenched from a tree and hurled to the ground, here on the northshore, north of NOLA. Thankfully it missed the house and cars.

I hope we remain this lucky for the duration of Bonnie's landfall, driving rain, fierce winds, and storm surge.
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The focus this upcoming week should be on this tropical wave, we should be able to track it as it goes across the Atlantic. This is the wave the ECMWF begins to develop Aug. 1st.


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Quoting Levi32:


I agree. The CLP5 climatology model kept taking Bonnie up east of Florida like most systems in that situation at this time of year will tend to due, but the abnormal amount of ridging steered her west.


so most storms will go to the east side of the gulf?
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Quoting hurricane23:
In my view i think bonnies track tends to give us a clue what the atmospheric set-up might be come the real season August/September.

The southeast is at high-risk this season once things get rolling in 2-3 weeks.


Agreed
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Quoting hurricane23:
In my view i think bonnies track tends to give us a clue what the atmospheric set-up might be come the real season August/September.

The southeast is at high-risk this season once things get rolling in 2-3 weeks.


I agree. The CLP5 climatology model kept taking Bonnie up east of Florida like most systems in that situation at this time of year will tend to do, but the abnormal amount of ridging steered her west.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
473. unf97
Quoting hurricane23:
In my view i think bonnies track tends to give us a clue what the atmospheric set-up might be come the real season August/September.

The southeast is at high-risk this season once things get rolling in 2-3 weeks.


I agree with you hurricane23!
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In my view i think bonnies track tends to give us a clue what the atmospheric set-up might be come the real season August/September.

The southeast is at high-risk this season once things get rolling in 2-3 weeks.
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Looks like this week will be quite, but if the GFS para and ECMWF verify the first week of August might be very interesting.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


(This Radar was Based at NHC)








Homestead Florida Leveled.


It was basically a giant mega twister...
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458. Tropicsweatherpr


000
NOUS41 KWBC 191802
PNSWSH

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 10-15... AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: TIMOTHY MCCLUNG
SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SUBJECT: AMENDED DATE: GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM CHANGES:
RESCHEDULED FOR JULY 28 2010

REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 10-15
TRANSMITTED APRIL 2 2010...AMENDED TIN 10-15
TRANSMITTED JUNE 14 2010

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL DOWNSTREAM DEPENDENCIES...THE EFFECTIVE
DATE OF THE UPGRADE IS BEING RESCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 28.
IF THE NWS DECLARES A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY ON OR AROUND JULY 28
THE IMPLEMENTATION MIGHT BE DELAYED. ANOTHER TIN WILL BE SENT IF
THIS OCCURS.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
Also notice the area of low pressure near northern Florida at 168 hours splitting off the tail-end of the front that is going to get draped down off the SE coast. We may have to watch out for possible homegrown mischief in that area and off the SE coast during the first week of August.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
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Quoting Drakoen:


2005 is an anomaly year, it makes sense to remove that year and recalculate the average for comparison.

Hey, Drak! People have trouble understanding the difference between playing with numbers (what politicians typically do) and understanding them. Yep, throwing out the anomaly is the best way to understand how things typically work.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's "mischief" :P

]
Just fixin' to fix that... I before e except after c lol
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Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF on the past couple of runs has been indicating a strong tropical wave entering the Caribbean from the Tropical Atlantic and potentially causing some "mischeif" in the Caribbean. Something to keep an eye out for as we head into August.



Looks like a Felix like path.
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Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF on the past couple of runs has been indicating a strong tropical wave entering the Caribbean from the Tropical Atlantic and potentially causing some "mischeif" in the Caribbean. Something to keep an eye out for as we head into August.



It's "mischief" :P
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
461. unf97
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Could this area in the BOC develop and if so would it go into Mexico?



NHC analyzed the BOC disturbance as a surface trough right along the coast.

2 p.m. NHC TWD

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST INTO S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS
TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

This area has been nearly stationary for over the past 24 hours. Looks to be meandering but it probably will move inland Mexico in the short term. It is very interesting to watch and you can detect a spin on the satellite loops right on the Southern Mexico coast.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cyber, when does the para take over the GFS forecast from the actual operational one? Do you have the link to the para because I dont have it.


Not sure and here.
Link
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ECMWF on the past couple of runs has been indicating a strong tropical wave entering the Caribbean from the Tropical Atlantic and potentially causing some "mischief" in the Caribbean. Something to keep an eye out for as we head into August.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS para 12z 192 hours out.. our first CV storm.


Cyber, when does the para take over the GFS forecast from the actual operational one? Do you have the link to the para because I dont have it.
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457. Asta
re: 448. CanesfanatUT 6:59 PM GMT on July 24, 2010 Yep-I remember Post Gustav & Katrina Gas lines and shortages.. Nice post.
RAMSDISFLOATER- LATEST IMAGE BONNIE
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Cleanup Fleet Heads Back to Work

The cap was never removed.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I work for XOM - Gustav was a major surprise to the BR complex.

What do you mean stay level? You don't remember '08 when Gustav and Ike pretty much took down every refinery but Pascagoula (that was of significant size)??

What about Katrina? It took down Colonial - the gateway for gasoline to the east & southeast? I don't think people realize how close this country was to having a significant portion of the population with little to no access to motor fuel.

If you ever trend the NYMEX mogas and diesel crack spreads back 5 years - you will see it blow out in the fall with '05 and '08 really disrupting refining operations.

Excellent info from you and SouthLa. Thank you.
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Check out the weak Bermuda High at 1021mb further southwest than normal on the long-range GFS.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Could this area in the BOC develop and if so would it go into Mexico?

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


(This Radar was Based at NHC)








Homestead Florida Leveled.
A night some of us will never forget.
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Edit: overkill
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GFS para 12z 192 hours out.. our first CV storm. Thoughts anyone?
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Quoting southlouisiana:


You never know what is going to happen. At the refinery I work at we have a sequence to follow and sometimes they end up dry runs. For instance when hurricane force winds are possible within 48 hours or a hurricane watch is declared, even if we are not apparently on a direct path, we begin shutting some of the heavier units down or going to min flow on them. At 42 hours another set kicks in..and 36 and 24...or as a watch is changed to a warning. These units dont start and stop on a dime. So there is usually a loss of production along the Gulf Coast even with a season that is not very active.
Also consider that ships bring crude to Gulf Coast terminals. A hurricane *anywhere* in the Gulf disrupts this flow which really cant stand much disruptions and you end up with bottlenecks and delays even with a storm that just skips around the water.
And finally the production drilling rigs have their own safety margins because they must be evacuated just in case. Even if the storm looks smallish, or is not heading right at them you just never know. They are still fairly unpredictable and you do not want to try to block in a rig and chopper people off in 60 mph winds.
Overall I am usually surprised that oil prices stay as level as they do through the summer and fall.


I work for XOM - Gustav was a major surprise to the BR complex.

What do you mean stay level? You don't remember '08 when Gustav and Ike pretty much took down every refinery but Pascagoula (that was of significant size)??

What about Katrina? It took down Colonial - the gateway for gasoline to the east & southeast? I don't think people realize how close this country was to having a significant portion of the population with little to no access to motor fuel.

If you ever trend the NYMEX mogas and diesel crack spreads back 5 years - you will see it blow out in the fall with '05 and '08 really disrupting refining operations.
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Quoting 10Speed:


Come on now Dude ... That's like saying "Take 7 of your points off the scoreboard and we'll be tied with you." What is, is. Takeaways to discount the poster's findings isn't a class act.

The answer is "Yup, that's so."


2005 is an anomaly year, it makes sense to remove that year and recalculate the average for comparison.
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Quoting Levi32:


Indeed. Although sometimes, such as in 1955, the trade wind flow is increased south of the A/B High but it is farther north, 20N or northward, where the strongest band of easterly anomalies are, and that can serve to cool the SSTs north of 20N. But then, that helps focus the heat in the MDR! Cooling the SSTs that far north actually aids tropical activity, so sometimes even stronger trade winds cooling SSTs can benefit a season if it takes place far enough to the north.

In fact, we've had a more neutral-positive NAO so far this month with faster trades (but further north than normal) and look at the cooler band of water between 25N and 30N. That is really quite beneficial to the eastern Atlantic.



Levi, you are one smart Met!
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The Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago issued a possible combined sewer overflow warning for the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal, Bubbly Creek, Chicago River, and Des Plaines River.

As of noon, 35,800 Commonwealth Edison customers were without power: 20,400 in Chicago, 8,500 in the northern suburbs, 5,200 in the southern suburbs and 1,600 in the western suburbs. ComEd says it has 180 crews out in the field working to restore power.

Heat and humidity levels are expected to reach dangerous levels again today in central and southeast Illinois with an advisory in place until 7 p.m.


Friday saw an unofficial high of 94 degrees at O'Hare at 4 p.m.--5 degrees shy of the 1914 record of 99--with a heat index of 104. The highest temperature in the city for the day was 95 degrees at Midway and 95 degrees at Northerly Island, which registered a heat index of 107.

Chicago provides cooling centers throughout the city. Residents can call 311 for their locations.

Click HERE for a list of community centers.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Take out 2005 and you'll find that neutral years are just as active as La Nina years


Come on now Dude ... That's like saying "Take 7 of your points off the scoreboard and we'll be tied with you." What is, is. Takeaways to discount the poster's findings isn't a class act.

The answer is "Yup, that's so."
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Afternoon.
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Quoting BeanTech:

Wow... way to go out on a limb there...5 years...lol


A Hurricane hits Fla from the South East coast an average of every 5 seasons. So if none do so, SE coast will be "overdue" for a Hurricane.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
437. SLU
Quoting seflagamma:


LOL, Ok, no problem, you are forgiven because you had a reason! :o)



lol yeah .. it was about August and September 2005 storms.


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Quoting BA:


if you are trading crude futures based on storms and weather, you will be broke real quick, the price does not nec. move in conjunction with events that would seem to make sense, simple as that


I don't - I'm not a trader. I'm an analyst.

What are you talking about?? The long position on crude futures went up ahead of BOTH Alex and Bonnie.

You can bet your shorts the price moves when a system is in the Gulf.
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Quoting seflagamma:


LOL, Ok, no problem, you are forgiven because you had a reason! :o)


I didn't make the original post lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no one forgets Wilma, the point of the post was to show storms that formed in August and September of 2005, when the NAO was positive

Wilma formed in October, that is why it was not included


LOL, Ok, no problem, you are forgiven because you had a reason! :o)
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Quoting StormW:


Nice post Levi.

What I am mainly referring to is, mainly the effect of the NAO in regards to SAL and cooling of the SST's, in that even though you can go positive on the NAO for 2 maybe even 3 months, things can recover pretty quick.


Indeed. Although sometimes, such as in 1955, the trade wind flow is increased south of the A/B High but it is farther north, 20N or northward, where the strongest band of easterly anomalies are, and that can serve to cool the SSTs north of 20N. But then, that helps focus the heat in the MDR! Cooling the SSTs that far north actually aids tropical activity, so sometimes even stronger trade winds cooling SSTs can benefit a season if it takes place far enough to the north.

In fact, we've had a more neutral-positive NAO so far this month with faster trades (but further north than normal) and look at the cooler band of water between 25N and 30N. That is really quite beneficial to the eastern Atlantic.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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