Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bappit:

Sounds like the law of small numbers at work. Here's a Wikipedia reference.


I tend to agree. however one cannot ignore the fact of how the season set up, although not law, but just a point of reference... Simular to what we spoke of earlier on the probability of precipitation... when it is a 10% chance of rain it really means that when the day sets up this way 100 times it rains 10 times.. Simular in a greater way to the tropical season.... If the AB high and other variables such as el nino, la nina, sst, shear and the strengths of all of those factors and more will affect the tropics on the greater scale. IMO all of these things will present tendencies in the weather patterns and therefore increasing the probability that storms will go certian places... Not every time since the variables are not a constant.
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As far as possible U.S. landfalls for the remainder of the season, it is still just too early to make a definitive forecast as to where the majority of TC's will track during the remainder of the season. That being said, I do not personally expect that the U.S. will make it through the 2010 hurricane season without multiple hurricane landfalls and at least one major land falling event. It is important to remember that 30 days is a very long time in attempting to forecast the probable atmospheric set up with regards to the upper level steering currents. Even then, it is still possible for an unforeseen trough to come along and steer a particular TC farther N and away from the U.S. Consequently, any respective track forecasts outside of 7-10 days carries a very large degree of possible error. Regardless, I do anticipate that Florida will encounter at least 1-2 hurricane landfalls before this particular hurricane season comes to a close. I also expect that there will be at least 2-3 land falling hurricanes and at least one major hurricane landfall in the U.S. during the season. We will just simply have to wait and see what actually does materialize during the succeeding 3 months or so.

adrian
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529. unf97
Quoting Hurricanes101:


both

as in lets say the coordinate 24N 77W has the distinction of having more storms tracks pass through it than any other point in the Atlantic Basin


Oh you gave the answer Hurricanes101. I did not realize it at first LOL. I hedged a guess a few posts back but it was a close guess to the actual answer.

That makes sense the answer because it is at this point where many cyclones recurve out into the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Florida Hurricane Capital of the World?

and this is major's only! not counting Cat2 and below!


and that chart is wrong because hurricane Andrew was in August 24, 1992 not september
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Quoting DestinJeff:
This season is a bus.

no, a bust



or a a bust...


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Let's lay some bodies out and talk about mischief.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Your kid take a crayon to that map???

I can't even see the Philippines. Geez
Nor Taiwan.
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Do you guys think there will be a persistence in the atmospheric patterns that would continue to all storms to go north of hispanola but generally westward? Accuweather has a graphic that shows a congregation of tracks that's pretty scary for Florida.Link
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Huh. That is interesting. Was surprised to see Va Beach up that high. I thought it would have been NO or Tampa #2.

Return frequency for landfalling TCs in an area is prolly the best way to gauge this. (CAVEAT: Some areas simply didn't have people along the coast for substantial portions of our records going back to the mid-1800s).

For cat 1:



For cat 3:



More here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/basics/return.shtml
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Quoting seflagamma:



Orca, what is that? sometimes I do not understand just a post of a map..

is that something forming????


It shows the latest HH information and location of the Vortex reports.

For Bonnie.. or what ever you want to call it now :)
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Good afternoon all. May I celebrate the lack of impact from Bonnie yet? I haven't gotten a bit of rain or any breezes yet. I'll gladly take all of these weak-things mother nature can send.

Atmo: I'll keep an eye out for those pesky falling pine-needles though. We've got a few of them around here ready to break off at any minute. They might even bend a blade of grass on my lawn as they impact. (Shudder the thought)

LOL!!! Bonnie?! Nya nya!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


every 1 mb drop in pressure brings 5 bloggers back on


Is slowly dropping.... key word...S l o w l y
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Quoting atmoaggie:

All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:


Your kid take a crayon to that map???

I can't even see the Philippines. Geez
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Gaining a bit of strength.



AOI



Orca, what is that? sometimes I do not understand just a post of a map..

is that something forming????
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514. IKE
Not sure if this has already been posted...12Z ECMWF shows little to nothing significant through August 2nd.

Here's the eastern Atlantic view...nothing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
513. unf97
Quoting hunkerdown:
no, he is looking for the fixed position that have had the most storms pass through


OK just wanted to clarify. Sorry about that. Based on the tropical cyclone history map someone posted on this page a bit earlier I would hedge a guess and say 25.0N and 74.0 or 75.0 W.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting ElConando:


You might get some gusts near 30 mph look out for it.
I live in the woods, essentially. I doubt the gusts will be that high with all of the wind drag I have surrounding me.

Now, if I went down to the lakefront, yeah, maybe.
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Quoting bappit:
"Mischeif" is a good spelling for an obnoxious phrase. Just look at the death and destruction done by tropical systems or simple interruption of daily life (see CanesFanatUT and southlousiana's posts) that can cause significant economic repercussions. Not saying that anyone using the mischief phrase is a wishcaster, of course. The term is just inappropriate.


That's a little over done, honestly. I wouldn't say inappropriate.

It's just a term they are using to tell folks on this blog "hey watch this area - I'm not saying it's Wilma Pt 2 but you might want to take a look".
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510. Asta
Quoting atmoaggie:

All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:

LOL!! Looks like my Chickens scratched up the map!!
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I can't wait for that ole mischief myself. Good times ahead.
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Quoting unf97:


It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?


yes and that is not a broad question or else you wouldn't use the term fixed point
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
Quoting unf97:


It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?
no, he is looking for the fixed position that have had the most storms pass through
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Gaining a bit of strength.



AOI
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504. unf97
Quoting hunkerdown:
ahhh...coordinate would be the position, i.e longitude and latitude


It's still a broad question. He is looking for a fixed position of where most storms pass through in the Atlantic basin right?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting unf97:


This is a fairly broad question. Do you mean what point in longitude or latitude?


both

as in lets say the coordinate 24N 77W has the distinction of having more storms tracks pass through it than any other point in the Atlantic Basin
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Look at Miami...



Huh. That is interesting. Was surprised to see Va Beach up that high. I thought it would have been NO or Tampa #2.
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol. I don't think so.


I like the term "Mischeif" myself! :o)
and disagree with post 487...
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Back from Crab Island ... Bonnie really kicking up some major swell to almost 1 FT!

Water very clear, even for the Emerald Coast. Thanks for the great weather, Bonnie!

Where's the oil?
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Quoting unf97:


This is a fairly broad question. Do you mean what point in longitude or latitide?
ahhh...coordinate would be the position, i.e longitude and latitude
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498. unf97
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I always wondered this question

What is the coordinate that has the distinction of having the most storms in the Atlantic Basin pass through it


This is a fairly broad question. Do you mean what point in longitude or latitude?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting DestinJeff:
Back from Crab Island ... Bonnie really kicking up some major swell to almost 1 FT!

Water very clear, even for the Emerald Coast. Thanks for the great weather, Bonnie!


Amen!! Sun is shining here in Biloxi... going out to da pool!!!! Thanks Bonn!!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I think I just saw a pine needle get wrenched from a tree and hurled to the ground, here on the northshore, north of NOLA. Thankfully it missed the house and cars.

I hope we remain this lucky for the duration of Bonnie's landfall, driving rain, fierce winds, and storm surge.


You might get some gusts near 30 mph look out for it.
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I always wondered this question

What is the coordinate that has the distinction of having the most storms in the Atlantic Basin pass through it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Tell you guys one thing I learned over my years of watching the tropics. Once a tropical system lands somewhere it certianly seems that system gravitate to that location... 2004 I felt like I was right in the middle of a bulls eye here in central florida with storms coming from the west east and even doing loop da loops (jeanne) to get here in Central Fl.

Sounds like the law of small numbers at work. Here's a Wikipedia reference.
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485 earth dragon: ..and all others discussing the phenomenon of storm tracks following storm tracks.:

A general pattern can establish itself, and potentially cause several storms to follow a general path. But this is not always the case. Does anyone remember who followed Cindy to NewOrleans? Yet there were many storms between C and K that did not follow.

So far we've had two head for the Tex/Mex border. Will all others go to the Tex Mex border? NO! and Bonnie is proof of that.

Will all other storms follow Bonnie, right up into Mississippi Sound? God I hope not.

Yes the A/B high is going to tend to push storms further West than normal. That is a generalized steering arrangement. The actual tack of any future storm will depend on multiple variables and timing.

Is anyone here seriously saying that all remaining storm this season will follow Bonnies' track??!
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Quoting bappit:
"Mischeif" is a good spelling for an obnoxious phrase. Just look at the death and destruction done by tropical systems or simple interruption of daily life (see CanesFanatUT and southlousiana's posts) that can cause significant economic repercussions. Not saying that anyone using the mischief phrase is a wishcaster, of course. The term is just inappropriate.


Lol. I don't think so.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting Chicklit:


Something is happening, if it is anything is another.
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"Mischeif" is a good spelling for an obnoxious phrase. Just look at the death and destruction done by tropical systems or simple interruption of daily life (see CanesFanatUT and southlousiana's posts) that can cause significant economic repercussions. Not saying that anyone using the mischief phrase is a wishcaster, of course. The term is just inappropriate.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:


Lol can't even see the Phillippines.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting Levi32:


I agree. The CLP5 climatology model kept taking Bonnie up east of Florida like most systems in that situation at this time of year will tend to due, but the abnormal amount of ridging steered her west.


Tell you guys one thing I learned over my years of watching the tropics. Once a tropical system lands somewhere it certianly seems that system gravitate to that location... 2004 I felt like I was right in the middle of a bulls eye here in central florida with storms coming from the west east and even doing loop da loops (jeanne) to get here in Central Fl.
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Quoting Levi32:


No that's not what I mean. The east gulf is at risk like everyone else, but my point was that climatology took Bonnie north, but she went west instead, indicating what most of the storms will do this year, tending to stay on a WNW course longer before recurving.


oh ok. I was gonna say, I guess we are in the clear then. :) but then again I guess not.
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483. unf97
Quoting Levi32:


No that's not what I mean. My point was that climatology took Bonnie north, but she went west instead, indicating what most of the storms will do this year, tending to stay on a WNW course longer before recurving.


Yep! That is the normal pattern set-up for the meat of the hurricane season. This is exactly what I am expecting the pattern to be come August and September.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Florida Hurricane Capital of the World?

and this is major's only! not counting Cat2 and below!



All TCs:


As for the world, The Philippines might have an argument.

Typhoons 1980 to 2005:
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Quoting unf97:


NHC analyzed the BOC disturbance as a surface trough right along the coast.

2 p.m. NHC TWD

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST INTO S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS
TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 94W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

This area has been nearly stationary for over the past 24 hours. Looks to be meandering but it probably will move inland Mexico in the short term. It is very interesting to watch and you can detect a spin on the satellite loops right on the Southern Mexico coast.


I noticed that too
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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