Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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581. IKE
It's over....

...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 24
Location: 28.5N 87.6W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb


Dedicated to Bumbling Bonnie....

This time it's legit....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting sammywammybamy:
000


$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


R.I.P. Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC should start ending their updates with


Ok, I'll bite. Why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmmm, "A List of Common Logical Fallacies in Propaganda and Debate" might come in handy on here if you are keeping score.
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Quoting IKE:
Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match.

Stay tuned for further updates!

$$$



LMAO Ike...hey there's a whopping 4 mph wind being reported in Mobile, AL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


Terrific explanation Storm...people just have to be patient, I've never seen a La Nina year with a below average season or even an average season in ACE terms. June/July are useless in previewing entire-season activity. The amount of heat in the Atlantic this summer is extraordinary.


2007 was pretty un-eventful in ACE. Had a LOT of storms though.
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570. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:
30 Minutes to next advisory.

Last Advisory Maybe.


It is.....

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting sammywammybamy:
30 Minutes to next advisory.

Last Advisory Maybe.


More like 10 mins
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I looked back some pages and didn't see this posted...

They have a vessel back over the BP well, and have an ROV down on site monitoring again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
For da non believers:

REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Terrific explanation Storm...people just have to be patient, I've never seen a La Nina year with a below average season or even an average season in ACE terms. June/July are useless in previewing entire-season activity. The amount of heat in the Atlantic this summer is extraordinary.
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Very strong couplet over Mobile bay right now heading west. Should have been warned :)
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558. unf97
Quoting IKE:
Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match.

Stay tuned for further updates!

$$$



LOL.. hey Ike you are throwing out some good lines today.
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557. IKE
Bonnie update: Bonnie left her mark on me(inland Florida panhandle).....I received .02 of an inch of rain from her and a peak wind gust only my blow dryer could match.

Stay tuned for further updates!

$$$

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
We're getting deep enough in the season where climatological favored events like the 12z ECMWF is showing that are 192 hours plus have a good chance of verifying.

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553. LSU79
Quoting jlp09550:
Almost looks like what's left of Bonnie in the north-eastern GOM is moving due west or almost stationary.


Well it seems to be on its forcast path but it does appear to have slowed down a bit. It does have an real nice spin though.
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Quoting StormW:
For da non believers:

REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
Great job
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Afternoon guys and girls!

Well at least we don't need HH data to see the center of Bonnie/remnant low!
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Quoting unf97:


Surface trough located right on the coast of Southern Mexico. There is a spin there but the system is likely to keep moving inland into Mexico.


Thanks!
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.
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Ooooo, you should prolly put up one a little different...

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Quoting bluehaze27:
Thanks hurricane23 and StormW...it will be interesting in a few weeks.


No problem! I'am with stormw on a very busy season just around the corner.
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544. unf97
Quoting turtlegirl9:
97oW 22oN in Gulf of Mexico. Is it an artificial illusion? It looks like circulation. Even so its right on the shoreline so no real chance of further development. Just looked at satellite and it caught my eye.


Surface trough located right on the coast of Southern Mexico. There is a spin there but the system is likely to keep moving inland into Mexico.
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thanks!
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Thanks hurricane23 and StormW...it will be interesting in a few weeks.
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97oW 22oN in Gulf of Mexico. Is it an optical illusion? It looks like circulation. Even so its right on the shoreline so no real chance of further development. Just looked at satellite and it caught my eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
no, a bust



or a a bust...


Nice bust...
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I tend to agree. however one cannot ignore the fact of how the season set up, although not law, but just a point of reference... Simular to what we spoke of earlier on the probability of precipitation... when it is a 10% chance of rain it really means that when the day sets up this way 100 times it rains 10 times.. Simular in a greater way to the tropical season.... If the AB high and other variables such as el nino, la nina, sst, shear and the strengths of all of those factors and more will affect the tropics on the greater scale. IMO all of these things will present tendencies in the weather patterns and therefore increasing the probability that storms will go certian places... Not every time since the variables are not a constant.
of course I could be just stupid...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
534. unf97
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it was an example, the question was not a trivia question; I do not know the answer, I was looking for one.


Oh OK LOL.. I thought you gave the actual answer. Well then that remains a very good question to pose to an expert like StormW or Dr. Masters.
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Almost looks like what's left of Bonnie in the north-eastern GOM is moving due west or almost stationary.

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Quoting unf97:


Uh You gave the answer Hurricanes101. LOL. I hedged a guess a few posts back but it was a close guess to the actual answer.

That makes sense the answer becuase it is at this point where many cyclones recurve out into the Atlantic.


it was an example, the question was not a trivia question; I do not know the answer, I was looking for one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Sounds like the law of small numbers at work. Here's a Wikipedia reference.


I tend to agree. however one cannot ignore the fact of how the season set up, although not law, but just a point of reference... Simular to what we spoke of earlier on the probability of precipitation... when it is a 10% chance of rain it really means that when the day sets up this way 100 times it rains 10 times.. Simular in a greater way to the tropical season.... If the AB high and other variables such as el nino, la nina, sst, shear and the strengths of all of those factors and more will affect the tropics on the greater scale. IMO all of these things will present tendencies in the weather patterns and therefore increasing the probability that storms will go certian places... Not every time since the variables are not a constant.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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