Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting thewindman:
WSI cuts U.S. hurricane forecast to 19 named storms


>>>ALREADY PEOPLE ARE CUTTING>>>
Better cut a lot more. I'd say 10 total named and 3 hurricanes


"poof"
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WSI cuts U.S. hurricane forecast to 19 named storms


>>>ALREADY PEOPLE ARE CUTTING>>>
Better cut a lot more. I'd say 10 total named and 3 hurricanes
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Quoting StormW:


Could very well be...possibly Aug will be that way. I don't want to think about September.


hmmmmm...September is when we seem to get them. Not saying we will...just saying..
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Quoting StormW:


Could very well be...possibly Aug will be that way. I don't want to think about September.


Will be a September to remember... I'm a freekin poet and didn't even know it. Silence!
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Quoting StormW:


Well, evidently there's folks who come here to Dr. Masters blog that do!


Hi storm, you think when things do start getting active (heart of Hurricane season) do you think it will be pretty much one storm after another or with some pauses between them?
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621. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Good luck with that.


Better to root for that then some of the near wishcast posts that flood this blog. No wonder Dr. Masters took a few days off.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55974
Quoting bappit:

You don't really need much more than that chart to know that the future is still ahead of us.


I agree, seems all of the no-casters disappear until another storm brews, then they will start all over again
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Quoting IKE:


I'm rooting for it to stay that way til November 30th.


Good luck with that.
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Forget 2005 even 2008 was up to 4 storms by now. Season is a bust!

Sarcasm Flag: On
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613. IKE
Quoting JLPR2:
The Atlantic looks a little dry


Its going to be a little difficult for the wave that just emerged.


I'm rooting for it to stay that way til November 30th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Oh No, not the dreaded chart!! LOL

You don't really need much more than that chart to know that the future is still ahead of us.
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Quoting southlouisiana:
CanesfanatUT> I work for XOM - Gustav was a major surprise to the BR complex.

What do you mean stay level?


Yeah Rita was the same surprise for us. And I didnt quite mean "stay level". Maybe I just didnt express myself well. I am surprised that the prices aren't more volatile than they are given how delicate and how easily disrupted the supply chain is...and the precautions needed as a margin of safety at all times but especially during hurricane season. That would have been a better way of saying it. Or as you put it...



CanesfanatUT> I don't think people realize how close this country was to having a significant portion of the population with little to no access to motor fuel.

Exactly! Given the tight supplies, the dangers to and of production, transporting and then refining oil it is either stand amazed or worry yourself sick at the narrow margin between society and huge energy disruptions. It wouldn't take much to start the dominoes toppling.


Thanks again for a real-world perspective on how tropical weather affects us.
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Quoting StormW:


Nothing. Just hope ya got something out of it.


I did... Thanks sir good ol' budster
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Quoting DestinJeff:
wait for it


Oh No, not the dreaded chart!! LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm telling you all this though, this season has already proved itself deadly and destructive. Heck, in a inactive year Alex would have been the 'it only takes one' storm, 1.21 billion dollars in damage and 40+ people dead or missing. And I'll tell you, this season will continue to be deadly and destructive, and in 9 days or so when this season really gets going, it won't stop, we'll just see a continuous onslaught of increasingly deadly and destructive storms. Remember 2008? Once Fay formed all hell broke loose in the Atlantic, and it never stopped and soon enough we had Ike.


So true. We've seen enough of this before to know what's coming...I'm sticking to my 17/9/5 prediction...August/September/October are LONG months in La Nina years.
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StormW, Great Class! How much do I owe you? LOL
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Raining tons and buckets.......
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599. JLPR2
The Atlantic looks a little dry


Its going to be a little difficult for the wave that just emerged.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




That dude in the picture ain't got nothin on StormW...LOL
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And even though Storm did a great job of laying out the facts in succinct order, some still don't GET IT. See comment made by "bappit", post #580.
You can lead a horse to water, but ya can't make it drink.
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I'm telling you all this though, this season has already proved itself deadly and destructive. Heck, in a inactive year Alex would have been the 'it only takes one' storm, 1.21 billion dollars in damage and 40+ people dead or missing. And I'll tell you, this season will continue to be deadly and destructive, and in 9 days or so when this season really gets going, it won't stop, we'll just see a continuous onslaught of increasingly deadly and destructive storms. Remember 2008? Once Fay formed all hell broke loose in the Atlantic, and it never stopped and soon enough we had Ike.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55974
NHC to lower their prediction by 50% and stop calling areas of interest with less than 1% chance of forming. They have become a bunch of wishcasters
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Big T-Storm in Mobile

Link
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98L is sure putting some tropical rain down on Mexico, all the focus is/was on Bonnie but the damage report will go to 98L for sure.
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Storm...while I didn't understand alot of the graphs and such...I must tell you how impressive it is to read your blog. To spend that kind of time to help us understand weather and what makes a storm do what it does...is really awesome...All I can say is ...THANK YOU!!
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Interesting feature in the BOC/GOM, Despite the ULL, the NW Caribbean & SW Caribbean might want to brew something, TD Bonnie looks to have slowed and moving more westward, Despite some criticism, I think the NHC made a good call and Bonnie deserved a name though shortlived, I thinked TD2 might have deserved a name also, I think starting from Aug 10 on the season is really going to ramp up, jmo.
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583. unf97
Quoting DestinJeff:


with the nasty weather Ike was reporting he may look more like this:


LMAO.. That was a good one Destin Jeff LOL..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


2007 was pretty un-eventful in ACE. Had a LOT of storms though.


Yeah it was pretty average ACE-wise but we still had 2 Cat-5s and 15 storms. La Nina will always give you plenty to watch no matter how June/July fare.
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581. IKE
It's over....

...BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 24
Location: 28.5N 87.6W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb


Dedicated to Bumbling Bonnie....

This time it's legit....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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