Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DestinJeff:
A big lesson for us all we should take from the last few days is clear:

A pile of ants SHOULD NEVER be trusted to make an accurate forecast. Stupid ants!


One should remember that ants start preparing for winter, months in advance. Little Bonnie was probably "not" the storm your ants are preparing for. :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Read no injuries in Iowa.
credit those who warned of the failure about to occur
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Quoting FLdewey:


That what I envision Janiel sounding like when he sees a tropical system.


XD
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Some Crazy Guy Shouting OMG and starts crying over a Rainbow.

He appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live.


Watch:







WOW!!! he's a tad bit emotional huh?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Dam failure in Iowa... coverage on CNN.

Damn.



Jeez, that is pure awful. I really hope people can get things back to normal quickly and recover. holy cow.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Dam failure in Iowa... coverage on CNN.

Damn.



Pun intended? :P
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Quoting atmosweather:


Would not be surprised in the slightest.


we're getting to the time in the season where this will likely verify if the ECMWF is still showing it tomorrow and throughout the week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF continuing to predict a storm in the Caribbean..



Would not be surprised in the slightest.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Dam failure in Iowa... coverage on CNN.

Damn.


WOW!! I just received that breaking news on my bb from CNN, had no idea how terrible it was, that picture looks horrifying, hope everyone is safe!
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Quoting ElConando:


Could possibly from be the wave just off Africa. Timing seems about right. 10 days from now.


It is the wave off Africa. I mentioned it in my update.. the ECMWF is starting to show consistency.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
Quoting seflagamma:
that system in the BOC that is half over land and half over water is still looking pretty darn good.... why is no one watching it?

is it going to move west over land soon?

was that 98L?????


It's a broad area of low pressure associated with a surface trough...that feature should be moving inland tomorrow so there is little chance for any tropical development.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF continuing to predict a storm in the Caribbean..



Could possibly from be the wave just off Africa. Timing seems about right. 10 days from now.
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ECMWF continuing to predict a storm in the Caribbean..

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
Quoting FLdewey:
Yup... season is a



;-)

Can u find one of Dolly Parton and post that, it might be appropriate for how the season might turn out also :)
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In America, meteorologists predict storms.
In Soviet Russia...
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that system in the BOC that is half over land and half over water is still looking pretty darn good.... why is no one watching it?

is it going to move west over land soon?

was that 98L?????
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Bonnie dies, tropical trouble ahead 7/24/10 sorry for the short update.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
You know I really have to smile on this blog sometimes,some that are always criticizing others for be immature basically making fun of a TD because it didn't produce the destructive force or amounted to what they thought it might become, you know there is nothing wrong with having a little fun, but sometimes I don't think people stop to realize what they say though they probably don't mean no harm, Would it have been a different tone if Bonnie had become a Major Hurricane and left those and a couple hundred more homeless and fighting for survival, definitely I think a different tone, be very carefull and don't make fun of Mother Nature, she might just deal you a heavy blow and chastise you one day! Enough said!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


"SILENCE! I kill u!"


To avoid trouble and to sound correct, it is keel you. LOL
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653. xcool
6 NAMED STORMS IN August 03 TO 17......


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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Have you seen the Double Rainbow on Yosemite?


No. what is that?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Forget 2005 even 2008 was up to 4 storms by now. Season is a bust!

Sarcasm Flag: On


Well then remember 2004. Quite a deadly and active year and by this time there were no SINGLE storm formed. Compare that to 2 and possibly soon-to-be 3.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looks like a TD making landfall to me...Hard to believe it ain't an Invest. But it's too close to land anyway, if not over it.
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Quoting StormW:


No, I haven't...I'll have to look it up.


That's who my avatar is, it is hilarious.
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here ya go storm

aoi is in BOC NEAR 21.6N/96.3W

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Quoting StormW:
Das poof!


Storm... have you ever seen Jeff Dunham's skit with Ahmed the dead terrorist? if you haven't you need to watch it on youtube
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Quoting StormW:


Nothing. Just hope ya got something out of it.
Yes, you are helping me learn-- Thank you
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Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Don't waste your breath Bossman... I'm sure he read it, just being negative
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Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


thewindman refuses to listen to facts, he enjoys adding to the chaos on here and should be ignored.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
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I think August is going to be like what nearly happened with Bonnie and 98L. Two or three storms are going to form at nearly the same time, then one or two of them will die out and the remaining one will be the one that we track for a week or so, then that dies and the next day or so another one forms.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.