Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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18z GFS Parallel and Operational continue to hint at Cape Verde development as August begins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
welcome to teh blog

Teh?
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Quoting BeanTech:
Beautiful pic earthly!


I didnt take this shot.. I just know taking that shot was either Pure Luck or one heck of a patient photographer.. Just a lot going on there....
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728. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
welcome to teh blog


LOL!

Anytime anybody comes on here and says....

(1)I've been lurking for years....
(2)Thought I would finally join in on the blog....

Sorry...it raises an eyebrow.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
727. xcool
OMG Drama
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Play with her... She would like that better anyway! :)

Good answer!
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I have found Bonnie quite interesting to follow. The wave intensified on cue as it approached the ULL. It then seemed to back build some, not moving much for a day while a surface trough developed across the far eastern Caribbean. (According to one of the NHC discussions the wave that got it started moved west over Cuba leaving the invest behind. Curious about that.) Bonnie formed and went northwest, steered by the ULL, leaving the surface trough in the far eastern Caribbean behind. It then got caught between the ULL and more upper trough sagging south. I say more instead of another because a trough seems to hang out consistently in the area during July every year and periodically get reinforced by a wave in the westerlies blocked by the Azores/Bermuda high. The ULL was just the southern end of that persistent trough. It then maintained just enough convection to hold itself together as it got squeezed (upper level convergence) limiting its outflow. It was also just about doa from the dry air. Thursday evening there was a report about a high TPW reading in Bonnie and a warning made about possible heavy rainfall as it approached Fla., but that TPW reading must have been right through its small area of convection at the time. Getting into the GOM it got heavily sheared from the southeast (ULL again) until it was classified as a remnant low while still a hundred miles or so away from La./Ms. coasts.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
alex was the peak of this season


Drama
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Quoting fallinstorms:
august is going to be quite as a mouse


Uh Oooooh... some just love the Drama


Drama caster
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Quoting Andrew92survivor:
This is my blogging debut on wunderground. I have been visiting this site for years and reading the blog entries daily (especially during periods of active tropical weather). Unfortunately, I've noticed during the last two or three years more and more people getting on here to instigate, bicker and cause problems... it's definitely changed and one can only wish it reverts to yesteryears (informed, scientific individuals). I look forward to taking part in the discussions and learning more about weather in general. Have a good one everybody!
welcome to teh blog
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Quoting seflagamma:


Hey, haven't seen you around lately... probably because I wasn't around but anyway.. Happy Saturday to ya!


Hi Gamma, when the "season" starts, I just read and listen to the pros but don't post much. My brother lives near Houston, my son east of Gainesville, and friends and other family in all the Gulf States from Texas to Florida, so I'm always reading this blog!!! :)
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Quoting ChrisDubois:
Good Evening everyone. This is my very first comment. Im reporting from St. Bernard Parish in Louisiana.
\


welcome!



What's going on here, 2 new bloggers within the same hour!!!


almost time for me to fly the work coop...
weekend will begin in about 25 minutes!
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Quoting Floodman:


You got that right...LOL


Thanks for the welcome. Im looking at the New Orleans Long Range radar. Whats left of Bonnie will be spinning through here in a few hours. Its showing a nice band of showers and thunderstorms right now.
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Now this is an extremely hard shot to take... I would know!
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Quoting caneswatch:
Blog's dead tonight, surprising because models are showing something, and they're being consistent.


yeah, but that is down the road, not at this moment. :)
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Quoting ChrisDubois:
Good Evening everyone. This is my very first comment. Im reporting from St. Bernard Parish in Louisiana.


Welcome, newcomer!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


OH yea watch out for the wise acres.... Ooooopps that would be me... :)


You got that right...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting ChrisDubois:
Good Evening everyone. This is my very first comment. Im reporting from St. Bernard Parish in Louisiana.


Hey Chris.. Welcome..
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Welcome ... Water is warm (Anomaly)... Come on it


OH yea watch out for the wise acres.... Ooooopps that would be me... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening everyone. This is my very first comment. Im reporting from St. Bernard Parish in Louisiana.
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Quoting Andrew92survivor:
This is my blogging debut on wunderground. I have been visiting this site for years and reading the blog entries daily (especially during periods of active tropical weather). Unfortunately, I've noticed during the last two or three years more and more people getting on here to instigate, bicker and cause problems... it's definitely changed and one can only wish it reverts to yesteryears (informed, scientific individuals). I look forward to taking part in the discussions and learning more about weather in general. Have a good one everybody!


Welcome ... Water is warm (Anomaly)... Come on it
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Hi Andrew92Survivor,
Congratulations on your first WU Post as a blogger.
Now it is in your blood and it will pull you in all the time.

Yes the "good old days here" in 2005/2006 were good. But there was a lot of fighting going on all the time, just as bad as now...but we did not have as many bloggers back then as we do today.

Just use your "ignore" feature for the ones that really get on your last nerve and it helps a lot as you navigate thru the comments.

Welcome!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Andrew92survivor:
This is my blogging debut on wunderground. I have been visiting this site for years and reading the blog entries daily (especially during periods of active tropical weather). Unfortunately, I've noticed during the last two or three years more and more people getting on here to instigate, bicker and cause problems... it's definitely changed and one can only wish it reverts to yesteryears (informed, scientific individuals). I look forward to taking part in the discussions and learning more about weather in general. Have a good one everybody!


Welcome!
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Quoting FLdewey:
Honey... have you seen Mary's bike?



Since things are slow this is worth a look... lots of good shots:

BOSTON.COM WX Photos


Yes dear she is riding it in her bedroom..... LOL JK
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Quoting FLdewey:


You had better have a backup DVD!!! ;-)


I just found that for the next line that's coming across Mobile Bay!
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Blog's dead tonight, surprising because models are showing something, and they're being consistent.
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Quoting keithneese:
We had a pretty bad thunderstorm come thru Mobile a little while ago that knocked out the cable. How do you explain to a 2 year old that she can't watch spongebob???


Play with her... She would like that better anyway! :)
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Man that sure is a lot of convection just east of St. Andres Island

Doc must have went on vacation.... LOL

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We had a pretty bad thunderstorm come thru Mobile a little while ago that knocked out the cable. How do you explain to a 2 year old that she can't watch spongebob???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is my blogging debut on wunderground. I have been visiting this site for years and reading the blog entries daily (especially during periods of active tropical weather). Unfortunately, I've noticed during the last two or three years more and more people getting on here to instigate, bicker and cause problems... it's definitely changed and one can only wish it reverts to yesteryears (informed, scientific individuals). I look forward to taking part in the discussions and learning more about weather in general. Have a good one everybody!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Kori and everyone else. Just got a chance to get on the blog. Been at work all day. Can someone please tell me what the big blow up is in the SW Caribbean ? Was surprised to see that just now.


Looks like a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean interacting with an upper low. Also might be partially enhanced by the semipermanent Colombian heat low.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Kori and everyone else. Just got a chance to get on the blog. Been at work all day. Can someone please tell me what the big blow up is in the SW Caribbean ? Was surprised to see that just now.


Just an area of showers caused by some upper level divergence S of a weak surface wave.
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AOI
MARK
12.3n/80.1w

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF continuing to predict a storm in the Caribbean..


In what time frame (days) is that?
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What is keeping these storms down? I heard all year that water temps were supposed to accelerate these storms.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


XD
Hi Kori and everyone else. Just got a chance to get on the blog. Been at work all day. Can someone please tell me what the big blow up is in the SW Caribbean ? Was surprised to see that just now.
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Quoting RTLSNK:


One should remember that ants start preparing for winter, months in advance. Little Bonnie was probably "not" the storm your ants are preparing for. :)


Hey, haven't seen you around lately... probably because I wasn't around but anyway.. Happy Saturday to ya!
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Quoting StormW:


Well, evidently there's folks who come here to Dr. Masters blog that do!

REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


August,Sept,Oct will be very much above average.
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Quoting atmosweather:


It's a broad area of low pressure associated with a surface trough...that feature should be moving inland tomorrow so there is little chance for any tropical development.


Thank you!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


WOW!!! he's a tad bit emotional huh?


There is an auto-tune song made out of that.


DOUBLE RAINBOW SONG!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX0D4oZwCsA
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Quoting DestinJeff:
A big lesson for us all we should take from the last few days is clear:

A pile of ants SHOULD NEVER be trusted to make an accurate forecast. Stupid ants!


One should remember that ants start preparing for winter, months in advance. Little Bonnie was probably "not" the storm your ants are preparing for. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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