Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Storm thanks for all the information! All the people that say this season is a bust need to take a look at the date 07/24!! We are just getting into the heart of the season. I have lived on the Gulf coast all of my 56 years and a Year where we do not have a Storm before August is not that unusuall,and this year we have had one hurricane and one storm!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:
I'm too paranoid to put anyone on ignore ... It seems like it's the internet equivalent of plugging my ears and going "lalalalala" ... If they are putting out bad information I feel I need to be there to correct them for the sake of those who would be fooled. Ergo those few who were screaming intensification last night and trying to startle people.


Agree 100%...these people are foolish but this is a public forum and some people are going to think they know what they are talking about...I always want to make sure that bad info doesn't spread around.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:



Oh so we are married??

lol you stole my joke ;)
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778. IKE
Quoting pilotguy1:
This evenings posts are just what is wrong with this blog. The regulars are just plain sarcastic and snotty about almost everything. Everyone here almost without exception (StormW) needs to just get some respect for people.


What I've noticed.....it's a lot harder to downcast on here vs. wishcasting.

You can come on here and say...this season will heat up soon(which...by the way...that's a given...it happens almost every season in August and September!). Death and destruction will follow. I would never come on here and say that unless I followed it with....but I hope it doesn't.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I'm too paranoid to put anyone on ignore ... It seems like it's the internet equivalent of plugging my ears and going "lalalalala" ... If they are putting out bad information I feel I need to be there to correct them for the sake of those who would be fooled. Ergo those few who were screaming intensification last night and trying to startle people.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
i been here since 2005

and I never been wrong

im always right




Oh so we are married??
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah...in da meantime, the ignore list keeps a growing! LOL!


Yeah, mine grew by some 25 this week...funny, most of those seemed to be the same people, over and over again...just different handles...LOL

Okay folks, I'm out...play nice and be safe!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...in da meantime, the ignore list keeps a growing! LOL!


really, I guess I'm a weird one. I don't have anyone on ignore. Not sure if I am on anyone's or not, but no one is on mine. If I don't want to read it I go past it.
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storm,

just read your blog. thanks for all the homework. enjoyed reading it

thanks
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lol Canes I think he/she was saying telling storm not to bother responding to them because they were trolling, not that storm himself was a troll
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767. flsky
Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Thank you, thank you for the VERY informative lesson! It cleared up a multitude of things for me - and I've been on this blog for 4 years!
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Quoting StormW:


Correct flood!


Wow...like tooting backwards? That has to hurt
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting CybrTeddy:
fallinstorms is well.. falling in intelligence with every post.


FTW!
Quoting bappit:

These guys sound like trolls to me.


StormW is not a troll, he's an expert on this. Please think before you speak.
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Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
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Quoting seflagamma:


I do not do that because I want the opportunity to see all the post... who decided which bloggers are good ones. if I do not want to see their post I probably have them on ignore already. LOL

People who set their setting high probably never see m y posts...but then again.. LOL!

Some of the post I probably enjoy I would not be able to see if I set my ratings...

but a lot of folks use that feature.

Thanks!

I have it set to average right now. Not seeing a lot of the trollish posts that are bugging Storm. I can always unhide them and give them a minus though. :)
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Quoting StormW:


Foop

What's This?


A reverse **poof**?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting CybrTeddy:
fallinstorms is well.. falling in intelligence with every post.


FTW!
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Quoting StormW:


Foop

What's This?


'cha know, I know who fallinstorms is now.. think about it a blogger who always thinks he's right and brags about it even though 99% of the time with the exception of Bonnie and Katrina who's been here since 2005. Who does that sound like? Not your wife SouthAL LOL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
Fallinstorms ..always right .. never wrong .... are you my wife, by chance?
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754. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:


me too but I have been accused of being "unfriendly" and "non trusting" of newcomers.....

I was not able to "lurk" more than a few weeks before I got myself a handle and made that first scary post back in Aug 2005...
and you all have not be able to shut me up since! Lo)



I've never known you to be unfriendly on here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting SouthALWX:
On a note outside of weather for a moment, one of our bloggers here noticed along with myself a while back that BP was photoshopping images of their command center. We were dismissed with other users saying that the image had simply been brightened. As of the past week, it was discovered again and was determined the photos were indeed photoshopped with extra pictures and video slides placed in the photos. BP has admitted this and has since replaced the older photos with originals ... If this is old news Im sorry ... That just ticked me off!

Didn't realize it had surfaced here before. Good eyes. Yep, that was evidence of a class act.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
fallinstorms is well.. falling in intelligence with every post.


+1
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Quoting atmosweather:
18z GFS Parallel and Operational continue to hint at Cape Verde development as August begins.


This has a good chance of happening as well.. same with the ECMWF's Caribbean system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
How do you post a radar?
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"(According to one of the NHC discussions the wave that got it started moved west over Cuba leaving the invest behind. Curious about that.)"

The low level flow pushed the wave axis W-ward towards Cuba but most of the mid level energy had been lagging behind E of Cuba...and once ULL started to move W-ward it allowed the convection to refire over the E-ern portion of the surface reflection.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


To avoid trouble and to sound correct, it is keel you. LOL


...."Infidel....."
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Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS

These guys sound like trolls to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
fallinstorms is well.. falling in intelligence with every post.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
Quoting bappit:

You can also limit the posts you see by setting the ratings--great, good, okay, say what? and urk. You can then unhide your favorite bloggers. You won't see too many if you set it to great. Good approach when the blog is really active.


I do not do that because I want the opportunity to see all the post... who decided which bloggers are good ones. if I do not want to see their post I probably have them on ignore already. LOL

People who set their setting high probably never see m y posts...but then again.. LOL!

Some of the post I probably enjoy I would not be able to see if I set my ratings...

but a lot of folks use that feature.

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.4N/80.3W
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740. xcool


fallinstorms
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Quoting IKE:


LOL!

Anytime anybody comes on here and says....

(1)I've been lurking for years....
(2)Thought I would finally join in on the blog....

Sorry...it raises an eyebrow.


me too but I have been accused of being "unfriendly" and "non trusting" of newcomers.....

I was not able to "lurk" more than a few weeks before I got myself a handle and made that first scary post back in Aug 2005...
and you all have not be able to shut me up since! Lo)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi Andrew92Survivor,
Congratulations on your first WU Post as a blogger.
Now it is in your blood and it will pull you in all the time.

Yes the "good old days here" in 2005/2006 were good. But there was a lot of fighting going on all the time, just as bad as now...but we did not have as many bloggers back then as we do today.

Just use your "ignore" feature for the ones that really get on your last nerve and it helps a lot as you navigate thru the comments.

Welcome!

You can also limit the posts you see by setting the ratings--great, good, okay, say what? and urk. You can then unhide your favorite bloggers. You won't see too many if you set it to great. Good approach when the blog is really active.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
welcome to teh blog


heehee, dead on Keep..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a note outside of weather for a moment, one of our bloggers here noticed along with myself a while back that BP was photoshopping images of their command center. We were dismissed with other users saying that the image had simply been brightened. As of the past week, it was discovered again and was determined the photos were indeed photoshopped with extra pictures and video slides placed in the photos. BP has admitted this and has since replaced the older photos with originals ... If this is old news Im sorry ... That just ticked me off!
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http://www.wdsu.com/weather/18603600/iframe.html?qs=;longname=;shortname=Radar;days=&ib_wxwidget=true
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Quoting StormW:


REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


I love it!!
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18z GFS Parallel and Operational continue to hint at Cape Verde development as August begins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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