Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3481. unf97
Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!


Thanks for editing your post and owning up for the mistake. Apology accepted by this blogger.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
3479. xcool


wave at 40w

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-
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Quoting whs2012:


Where for the 1st one, and where for the 2nd?

Thanks!

2nd one by puerto rico
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Quoting xcool:
19 PGI19L 100726 2300 14.7N 55.4W ATL 15 1010mb




hmmmm
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Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!



+1
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That huge area of hot water between Puerto Rico and Bermuda---I'm not sure I've ever seen the water so warm over so wide an area in that region before.


There will be plenty of warm water from Brownsville, TX all the way up to Boston, MA this year. The ridge will probably stay strong enough most of the year to protect the Northeast, but North and South Carolina/Virginia might have a shot at a major this year.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.


I don't think it's a matter of not caring. It's more a wait and see thing. Anyone following the models has made a note of that I'm sure, but there is nothing that can be really talked about until we see how it plays out.
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Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!
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3470. xcool
19 PGI19L 100726 2300 14.7N 55.4W ATL 15 1010mb
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year


Now thats alot of space travel!


(yes I know theres an xtra 'm' in it)
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Quoting ElConando:


It is something to think about for sure but it is nothing eminent 192 hours out is 7 days. We shall see what pans out in that time.


Its been highly consistent, which has certainly caught my attention. It is our most reliable model, remember while it did not get Bonnie it got Alex, TD2, Bill, Fred, and a lot of other storms. Its the time of year when you start seeing consistency in the models like the ECMWF is showing it could very well develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting LightningCharmer:
'Same one that influenced Bonnie? How's the weather outside? 'Just read gusts over 60mph in some areas.


Just cloudy here...
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3466. whs2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA


Where for the 1st one, and where for the 2nd?

Thanks!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA

yep notice the trough on it too
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am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year
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3463. angiest
Looks like 3 systems on the ECMWF on August 5th (240 hours?)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.


It is something to think about for sure but it is nothing eminent 192 hours out is 7 days. We shall see what pans out in that time.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

Hi Ted, looks like the SAL is starting to wear a little thin, doesn't it?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live in Fort Worth, its a TUTT LOW
'Same one that influenced Bonnie? How's the weather outside? 'Just read gusts over 60mph in some areas.
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3457. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.


Oh, absolutely I took note of the model run for sure. We are just now about to enter the start of the most active part of hurricane season. I certainly hope the other bloggers on here have taken note of that model as well instead of talking politics.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Whoa! 12z ECMWF. At 192 hours a tropical depression..



At 240 hours looks like Two tropical storms in the Caribbean.. this could get interesting.


That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chicklit, that's a good cluster in the ITCZ---maybe it will break away and form a depression to give us something to talk about.


The ECMWF might verify too.. its been very consistent with a storm in the Caribbean (now two of them this run)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.

i said i saw it lol and yes could get interesting
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2010:



2005:



Don't forget that 2005 already had 2 major hurricanes by this time that upwelled a lot of water, but this still goes to show how truly warm we are out there.
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Can someone whisper me and tell me how to upload photos on here and how to change my avatar.
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Guess no one cares our most reliable model which has nailed all systems except Bonnie is developing two systems in the Caribbean on the 12z? Its been very consistent with one (since Bonnie died its been showing it), however two I haven't seen yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
So who wants to talk about that wave which was over Mali last night--the "Mali Monster"?


Huh? What'd I miss?
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Clever...LOL

Severe storm warnings in Dallas/Fort Worth Area. Is it related to 99L or Bonnie remnants?


I live in Fort Worth, its a TUTT LOW
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OK Mik. Ya fessed up fair and square. I can respect that!
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i saw it as well yes could get interesting
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Good Afternoon.
The wave approaching 40W is still showing signs of life.
IRLoopCATL
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Quoting mikatnight:




Ok I admit it; it's my fault! I was bored, the blog was a little slow, and I was craving attention. Now I'm feeling self-conscious and vulnerable. So - back to the weather! (Boy, things get a little touchy when there's no poor, defenseless storm to pick on...)


LOL
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Although we are all fascinated by meteorology, these natural forces take human lives! should`n we be thanking god that Bonnie didn`t become dangerous instead of calling the storm, weak and a shame and pathetic?
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guys look at post 3430.. anyone out there? Drak, Levi, MH09?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
orographic lifting......When asked about, Obama commented that He'd have Michell talk to a cosmetic surgeon..
Clever...LOL

Severe storm warnings in Dallas/Fort Worth Area. Is it related to 99L or Bonnie remnants?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like i picked a bad week to quit sniffen glue


As I with purple drank.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
3436. NEwxguy
We're approaching the active part of the tropical season and we're talking about how politcal people mispronounce words??? Please can we spin something up out there,Please!!!!!
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3435. whs2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Whoa! 12z ECMWF. At 192 hours a tropical depression..



At 240 hours looks like Two tropical storms in the Caribbean.. this could get interesting.


Is that a TS by the yucatan?
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3434. xcool
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I didnt start it....


Quoting whs2012:
Guys, why are you talking about politics.....


Ok I admit it; it's my fault! I was bored, the blog was a little slow, and I was craving attention. Now I'm feeling self-conscious and vulnerable. So - back to the weather! (Boy, things get a little touchy when there's no poor, defenseless storm to pick on...)
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Quoting Floodman:


I sat under Jeanne in 2004 because I really didn;t have a chouice; I didn't want to get caught out on I95 in a traffic jam...I was about 4 miles from where the "Official landfall" took place...she was a medium CAT3 and yes, it was pretty damned cool; I'm a midwesterner and I've been through a number of tornadoes but nothing like dealing with the eye of a CAT3...

My rules for hurricanes: if I must, I will stick around for a CAT1 or even a 2 but if I can run, I will. I require a minimum of two counties between me and the landfall of a CAT3; I require 300-400 miles for a CAT4 and I need at least two STATES between me and the landfall of a CAT5...I'm no coward, but I'm no fool either


You Live in Stuart?
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
3431. xcool
tropical weather, or the topic
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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