Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting fallinstorms:
my dream is to be a weather man

i will say THIS SEASON IS WEAK

It is poof

mark my words
are you sure you didn't mean poop but if so the flush model would be a great start
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Stay Thirsty My Friend..,





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting xcool:
NHC AOI MOVE NNE GAME ON BIGIFIF HAPPEN


I just looked at it and am wondering if it is truly moving NE or if that's an illusion?
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Quoting fallinstorms:
my dream is to be a weather man

i will say THIS SEASON IS WEAK

It is poof

mark my words

For those who have you iggy Im reposting what you said ... Comic relief is well appreciated, thanks!
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874. xcool
POOF
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Quoting fallinstorms:
i bet DR is happy it gets the whole summer off

the tropics have ended
Do you know what the Date is??????
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Quoting Dennis8:


Well I take my BS in Meteorology and courses in satellite meteorology, thermodynamics etc. and look again!

Dont throw the book at me. I just disagreed that's all. Im a student you're a graduate huzzah, Im not doubting your seniority. Im simply making a statement based on what Ive seen and see. Relax.
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868. xcool
NHC AOI MOVE NNE GAME ON BIGIFIF HAPPEN
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Quoting EvanKisseloff:
Final advisory issued on TD Bonnie as of 4PM CDT.


Well that should stop the Thunderstorms..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Final advisory issued on TD Bonnie as of 4PM CDT.
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Quoting NOLA70130:
Is this thing going to bring any rain to NOLA?


I've been wondering that myself for the Baton Rouge area.

I'm just happy she wasn't a big storm, although interesting to watch nonetheless.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


the chances of that happening are low...near 0 percent.


I wish they would use Magenta,..its my fav
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Bonnie is my favorite kind of tropical system - one that will bring rain and some relief from the heat to Little Rock and not cause damage along the coast.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


the chances of that happening are low...near 0 percent.

lmao!you're 100% correct!
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NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting SouthALWX:

Disagree .... Bonnie had decent satellite representation when declared a TS ... at times exhibiting decent outflow in 50% of the semicircle ... on the other hand I can see this AOI ramping up as the ULL retreats north and has favorable upper level conditions appear in it's wake, especially if it drifts NE with what shear there is.


Well I take my BS in Meteorology and courses in satellite meteorology, thermodynamics etc. and look again!
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Quoting Dennis8:
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan. Development of this system is not
expected due to its proximity to land. There is a low chance...
near 0 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.

THE NHC does NOT say the AOI in the BOC is moving inland . Just close to Tuxpan. The satellite presentation on visible is better than Bonnie was at any time. 0% can be 100% in 6 hours. Take it from a person who has been in 15 Storms on the Texas coast.

Disagree .... Bonnie had decent satellite representation when declared a TS ... at times exhibiting decent outflow in 50% of the semicircle ... on the other hand I can see this AOI ramping up as the ULL retreats north and has favorable upper level conditions appear in it's wake, especially if it drifts NE with what shear there is.
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853. beell
Gee, I wonder if the ULL on/near the TX coast has anything to do with the convection in the BOC? And what would happen to it if the ULL moves out of the area?
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668
WFUS53 KLSX 242359
TORLSX
MOC127-173-250030-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0057.100724T2359Z-100725T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 657 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPAULDING...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONROE
CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HANNIBAL...RENSSELAER AND ILASCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3980 9138 3972 9137 3967 9129 3952 9160
3957 9168 3987 9146
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 227DEG 39KT 3962 9155
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Is this thing going to bring any rain to NOLA?
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PLease nothing personal againt the NHC, they do a hell of a job despite the pressures placed on them I imagine, But please no more yellow circles unless they are at least 10%.
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An area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico near Tuxpan. Development of this system is not
expected due to its proximity to land. There is a low chance...
near 0 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.

THE NHC does NOT say the AOI in the BOC is moving inland . Just close to Tuxpan. The satellite presentation on visible is better than Bonnie was at any time. 0% can be 100% in 6 hours. Take it from a person who has been in 15 Storms on the Texas coast.
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846. xcool
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not sure there was a collision of energy there and its firing up good if it can keep the pace and expand we could have somin
Thanks. It's just that it seemed to blow up so sudden kinda like 98L.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Well the market definitely moves with a tropical system in the Gulf. It's not a huge move upward in normal years (2008 with 147$ crude isn't normal) if it's a relatively minor system. But given the right path - from Corpus to, say NOLA - and a major system, prices would jump pretty significantly because now you aren't just shutting in production offshore (so crude inventories go down) but you are also shutting down refineries (so mogas and diesel inventories go down). So it's a double whammy to the entire market structure.

Really anything in the Gulf north of Mexico will have a real impact to crude supplies. But a storm would have to make landfall in a pretty clustered part (north TX and Looziana) to really impact any significant amount of refineries. A Mississippi or AL or FL landfall would really only impact Chevron's refinery (unless NO floods again...).

You've mention something that I'm not sure anyone really knows - that's how important it is to evacuate all your employees if you are offshore or right on the coast. Our Beaumont chemical plant was flooded to the tune of 10 to 12 feet during Ike. If we had kept anyone in there - people would have died.

So I know people b*tch about gas prices when companies shut stuff down, but you gotta think of the employees. We don't want anyone "cowboyin' up" and having people injured or dead, do we?
No one really thinks about that side - they just see the price at the pump.


So if you feel yourself starting to get PO'ed in whatever part of the country you are in when prices rise ahead of landfall of a major - think of this dude or me, we are down there trying to get the hell out.
We'll get our plants back up as soon as possible. But if we get flooded - expect it to take a while, sea water and electronics don't mix.



Nice Post, most folks just think that the evil companies are just out to screw the "little guy", while in reality the "litte guy" is working to help them. Media in this country is less than stellar!
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842. xcool
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Quoting DestinJeff:


the Ghost of 95L?


Without the Frontal attachment..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE. THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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8pm TWO is out, 2 yellow circles, both at near 0%

1 for Ex-Bonnie
1 for the low pressure area in the SW BOC
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NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
last few frames to me show the area in the BOC starts to nudge to the NNE, a low is forming as well

If this system moves back offshore, it needs to be watched
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening KOG. Do you think there is any possibility for development there ?
not sure there was a collision of energy there and its firing up good if it can keep the pace and expand we could have somin
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Quoting P451:
X-Bonnie still has some pretty good storms it's going to bring into the coastline.




And the so called remnants of Bonnie Trucking westward and keeping off shore and is ULL disappearing from the scene!
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Quoting southlouisiana:
CanesfanatUT> I work for XOM - Gustav was a major surprise to the BR complex.

What do you mean stay level?


Yeah Rita was the same surprise for us. And I didnt quite mean "stay level". Maybe I just didnt express myself well. I am surprised that the prices aren't more volatile than they are given how delicate and how easily disrupted the supply chain is...and the precautions needed as a margin of safety at all times but especially during hurricane season. That would have been a better way of saying it. Or as you put it...



CanesfanatUT> I don't think people realize how close this country was to having a significant portion of the population with little to no access to motor fuel.

Exactly! Given the tight supplies, the dangers to and of production, transporting and then refining oil it is either stand amazed or worry yourself sick at the narrow margin between society and huge energy disruptions. It wouldn't take much to start the dominoes toppling.



Well the market definitely moves with a tropical system in the Gulf. It's not a huge move upward in normal years (2008 with 147$ crude isn't normal) if it's a relatively minor system. But given the right path - from Corpus to, say NOLA - and a major system, prices would jump pretty significantly because now you aren't just shutting in production offshore (so crude inventories go down) but you are also shutting down refineries (so mogas and diesel inventories go down). So it's a double whammy to the entire market structure.

Really anything in the Gulf north of Mexico will have a real impact to crude supplies. But a storm would have to make landfall in a pretty clustered part (north TX and Looziana) to really impact any significant amount of refineries. A Mississippi or AL or FL landfall would really only impact Chevron's refinery (unless NO floods again...).

You've mention something that I'm not sure anyone really knows - that's how important it is to evacuate all your employees if you are offshore or right on the coast. Our Beaumont chemical plant was flooded to the tune of 10 to 12 feet during Ike. If we had kept anyone in there - people would have died.

So I know people b*tch about gas prices when companies shut stuff down, but you gotta think of the employees. We don't want anyone "cowboyin' up" and having people injured or dead, do we?
No one really thinks about that side - they just see the price at the pump.


So if you feel yourself starting to get PO'ed in whatever part of the country you are in when prices rise ahead of landfall of a major - think of this dude or me, we are down there trying to get the hell out.
We'll get our plants back up as soon as possible. But if we get flooded - expect it to take a while, sea water and electronics don't mix.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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