Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmosweather:


Poof fool...he spent all last night providing great insight to those who asked for it and did it in a class manner.


Yes he did, and so did you.

That irks me...
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destinjeff .... made my day >.< that was hilarious.
Back to weather, the Boc feature is enhanced by UL divergence but I dont think it is purely an UL feature. Steering in the area is weak and modest shear may be dragging the LL portion out to sea slowly though I think it is predominately stationary. It has decent rotation but appears to be open on the west side and I see little evidence of a closed center. Atmos is right on the point that it should drift west soon ... it is in a hole of little steering and after the ULL lifts out the system should head on into mexico.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I just looked up the weather conditions for High Horse, but couldn't find them. Perhaps you can advise?


90% of hot air with only a 10% of humility. Winds 100 MPH blowing hard.
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Quoting xcool:
RedStickCasterette .KEEP EYE ON AOI


Thanks xcool, I will.
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926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


something to think about next week into the weekend..
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From the appearance of the NOAA temp map for the Tropical Pacific,..the Lah Ninja~ this year is as strong as the one in 2007 at the same time. I guess the "look" of it may not mean much. But isn't the wind shear supposed to be droping by now. What's taking it so long,...??? There's plenty of fuel out there,...2010 still looks ahead of 2005 in TCHP. (Ocean Heat Content),...
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ASCAT pass from this morning (8 hours ago) showed turning of the winds from southeasterly to easterly, indicating a surface trough, and the 850mb vort max at that time was much broader and asymmetric. It has since tightened, strengthened, and become more circular, so the next ASCAT pass should reveal more organization at the surface as well.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Dennis8:


So, As I expected you are a disrespectful young man. Your life will prove this out . Stoop to the levels you are used to. We are done and I will not respond . Over and out Kiddo.


Poof fool...he spent all last night providing great insight to those who asked for it and did it in a class manner.
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Quoting fallinstorms:
i truly believe all im saying even if guys don't

i know these things

Don't forget the Lithium bro!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is a surface trof located along the coast of Mexico, so I would disagree


You are right, I was talking about a surface low...there is a broad trough there. Although it has become a little better organized over the last 6 hours so there may be a low trying to form.
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The disturbance in the SW gulf has stronger winds than ex-Bonnie.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
919. xcool
RedStickCasterette .KEEP EYE ON AOI
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Quoting atmosweather:


Most of the showers and storms are being enhanced by strong upper divergence and not a particular surface feature. Just a broad area of low pressure...once the ULL to its north lifts out further it will drift W-ward so it shouldn't be a threat.


Agree, but it does have presence at the surface. A tight vort max at 850mb has strengthened today.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Dennis8:


So, As I expected you are a disrespectful young man. Your life will prove this out . Stoop to the levels you are used to. We are done and I will not respond . Over and out Kiddo.

Again, no data. Just condescension. Im glad we had this conversation, kiddo.
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Quoting Dennis8:


So, As I expected you are a disrespectful young man. Your life will prove this out . Stoop to the levels you are used to. We are done and I will not respond . Over and out Kiddo.


Wow...he's been nothing but helpful.

Just wow!
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The NHC has given the area of interest in the SW BOC a 1% chance of developing. What is the point of identifying an area of interest if you give it statistical chance that exceeds 3 Std. dev.?
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912. SLU
Quoting fallinstorms:
my dream is to be a weather man

i will say THIS SEASON IS WEAK

It is poof

mark my words


Bon appetit

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Quoting atmosweather:


Most of the showers and storms are being enhanced by strong upper divergence and not a particular surface feature. Just a broad area of low pressure...once the ULL to its north lifts out further it will drift W-ward so it shouldn't be a threat.


there is a surface trof located along the coast of Mexico, so I would disagree
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902
The 2004 season had numerous unusual occurrences. The first named storm of the season formed on August 1, giving the season the fifth-latest start since the 1952 season
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Quoting xcool:
RedStickCasterette .to me move NE HMM ?


It did to me at first when I took a quick peek but after I looked closer, it does seem stationary like was pointed out.

Cool to look at regardless...
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Quoting SouthALWX:

I could tell you what you need to do but I wont stoop to your level. You are using your credentials to forecast, and not providing any data to back up your assertions.


So, As I expected you are a disrespectful young man. Your life will prove this out . Stoop to the levels you are used to. We are done and I will not respond . Over and out Kiddo.
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907. xcool
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING ST.
BERNARD PARISH...JEFFERSON PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...PLAQUEMINES
PARISH...

AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO
51 MILES SOUTH OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MYRTLE GROVE BY 730 PM...
GRAND ISLE BY 740 PM...
6 MILES EAST OF LEEVILLE BY 815 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

Link
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.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
last few frames to me show the area in the BOC starts to nudge to the NNE, a low is forming as well

If this system moves back offshore, it needs to be watched


Most of the showers and storms are being enhanced by strong upper divergence and not a particular surface feature. Just a broad area of low pressure...once the ULL to its north lifts out further it will drift W-ward so it shouldn't be a threat.
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Nothing quite Like Live Idiocy..

LOL


jacksonsquarecam

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125534
Quoting SouthALWX:

It's pretty much stationary and open on the west side as evidenced by high res NASA visible near 96W 21.5N


Looking at it on RGB, I can see that it looks stationary. Not sure if I have the NASA link on my new laptop (old one crashed along with links).

Oh and thanks for all your help last night too!
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Quoting SouthALWX:

agree. upper level flow is pretty decent at the moment. It could afford to job NE a bit though since the ULL is retreating and it would benefit from distancing itself from land



Any easterly component to its movement is highly unlikely. It's drifting north in response to the ULL to the north, but the dominant steering flow is still WNW so this has to go inland soon, and shouldn't gain any distance from the coast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Patrap:


U betcha..


Who Dat! Part Deux-casting


Who dey?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
Quoting Dennis8:


Thank you young man for your continued opinion of and direction of what I need to do. Read your own words back to yourself. I imagine you will go far. RESPECT.

I could tell you what you need to do but I wont stoop to your level. You are using your credentials to forecast, and not providing any data to back up your assertions.
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Btw ya'll that guy is that antithesis of a troll. Like a person pretending a communist entering a conservative blog and vice versa.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709


NOLA BridgeCam to the Ese
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125534
Quoting Levi32:


It's being ventilated by the upper low and for the moment is still in a good position, but any further northward movement may take it closer to to the ULL and start shearing it. I suspect the area is a product of both upper divergence south of the upper low and perhaps a piece of 98L that got left behind, some remnant area of low pressure.

agree. upper level flow is pretty decent at the moment. It could afford to job NE a bit though since the ULL is retreating and it would benefit from distancing itself from land
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Dont throw the book at me. I just disagreed that's all. Im a student you're a graduate huzzah, Im not doubting your seniority. Im simply making a statement based on what Ive seen and see. Relax.


Thank you young man for your continued opinion of and direction of what I need to do. Read your own words back to yourself. I imagine you will go far. RESPECT.
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Guy's don't quote fallinstorms, its StormTop. He'll be gone before sunrise.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
888. xcool
RedStickCasterette .to me move NE HMM ?
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Quoting InTheCone:


Well, at least that's all it is - this time!

Hopefully the rest of the season will do nothing more to NOLA than be a lead up to superbowl "DEAUX"!!


U betcha..


Who Dat! Part Deux-casting
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125534
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I just looked at it and am wondering if it is truly moving NE or if that's an illusion?

It's pretty much stationary and open on the west side as evidenced by high res NASA visible near 96W 21.5N
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looks like a tropical storm over mexico..
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Quoting beell:
Gee, I wonder if the ULL on/near the TX coast has anything to do with the convection in the BOC? And what would happen to it if the ULL moves out of the area?


It's being ventilated by the upper low and for the moment is still in a good position. Any further northward movement may take it closer to to the ULL and start shearing it, but the ULL is also backing away NNW so it's in a pretty good spot. I suspect the area is a product of both upper divergence south of the upper low and perhaps a piece of 98L that got left behind, some remnant area of low pressure.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting fallinstorms:
we will only see yellow this year

there will be no cape verde storms this year

PLease I still want to know who died and left you their crystal ball?!!!
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Quoting Patrap:


Well that should stop the Thunderstorms..



Well, at least that's all it is - this time!

Hopefully the rest of the season will do nothing more to NOLA than be a lead up to superbowl "DEAUX"!!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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