Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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the long range ncep model shows a strong storm develop & at the end of the run is over puerto rico, granted this is 10 + days out forecast but all the ingrediants are there for it , along with the westward trend in steering, i think so, fl could see this possibly in the later part of second week of august, imo
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1029. SLU
Although the windshear across the MDR is basically lower than normal (apart from the temporary spike in the last 5 days or so), the waves are having a tough time developing because there is a significant amount of dry air across the area. As a rule of thumb, the season really begins when the thermodynamics improve and that could happen in a couple of weeks when the atmosphere gets more unstable.



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Quoting truecajun:
i have to say that the swimming party turned out perfect. it was overcast and breezy, so it was not too hot and we didn't get a drop of rain. still haven't gotten any


That's good. I had read your post earlier. Still no rain here in Denham and no breeze.

Glad it worked out!
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Based on all the positive parameters for tropical developement this season when could we possibly expect the season to really start getting active??
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Levi 1011: I agree we 'have to burst somewhere' to keep the balance. All of that heat energy has to go somewhere.

Where and when is what makes me anxious. I don't like the position of the A/B high. I don't like Bonnies track. But if I had to choose from which direction to take a storm hit, I think from the East (as Bonnies track) might do the least amount of damage.

She was moving pretty fast which means little time to strengthen. Moving near the shore a hypothetical storm might ingest some dryer air and weaken or limit its potential. We all know what a hit from the south can do to New Orleans. Yes if it came to a Cindy or Bonnie track I think I'd take Bonnie.

But I'm willing to be corrected...
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Blog slow down. Is time to discuss tomorrows' breakfast?

Rain may not even get to NewOrleans. As each band passes it sort-of breaks away around me. The grass and garden are bone dry. I deliberately didn't water the yard all this week in anticipation of this rainmaker, and this is the thanks I get?!!

What kind of Karma of Kismet is this? Here I try to use nature to water the yard, plan ahead, and nothing. Oh well, tomorrow I water the yard the old fashioned way, with a garden hose. So much for 'green' gardening.

Back to breakfast... Who's up for eggs Benedict and bloody-Marys?

Hey there everybody. Hey Mech I got a new "watering wand" today that attaches to the garden hose. It is awesome you should get one they are only $6.00 at Atwoods and you don't have to bend over to water anymore! :)
Anyways, something is brewing up out there ya'll, for sure. Don't know where at the moment. Still not liking the feel around Hispanola and to the sw of there, either.
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Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Don't post often on the main blog, but I have to give props where they are due...

This post deserves BBPOS(Best Blog Post of the Season)

Thanks Storm, excellent post!




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Quoting MechEngMet:
Blog slow down. Is time to discuss tomorrows' breakfast?

Rain may not even get to NewOrleans. As each band passes it sort-of breaks away around me. The grass and garden are bone dry. I deliberately didn't water the yard all this week in anticipation of this rainmaker, and this is the thanks I get?!!

What kind of Karma of Kismet is this? Here I try to use nature to water the yard, plan ahead, and nothing. Oh well, tomorrow I water the yard the old fashioned way, with a garden hose. So much for 'green' gardening.

Back to breakfast... Who's up for eggs Benedict and bloody-Marys?


I'm over in Mobile, and we got one good thunderstorm about 330 this afternoon. That was it!
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1019. unf97
Good evening everyone!
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1017. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


90 days of the MJO since late April.....it hasn't even touched octants 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. Where has it been? Octants 1, 2, and 3, where upward motion is favored over the Atlantic and Africa. It has been doing nothing but hanging around there, and will continue to do so for the remainder of the season. Every time it tries to move into the Pacific, it skips back over to the Atlantic because the water is too cold in the Pacific thanks to La Nina and the cold PDO.



Where's the greatest upward motion going to be found? Where the ocean is warmest relative to normal. Where is the ocean warmest? In the Atlantic, with the Indian Ocean at 2nd place. But the Indian tropical season is over until its 2nd peak in October and November, so where's the heat energy going to get released in the form of tropical cyclones? The only other choice is the Atlantic. That's where the world's burst of tropical activity will be in the next 3 months. There's no other place for the heat to be channeled out of the tropics, and so much was built up from the El Nino this winter that we can't simply have no tropical activity worldwide during the northern hemisphere summer. We have to burst somewhere.


Lovely post. I fully agree with your analysis.
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Pick a spot... any spot :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1015. tkeith
1010. MechEngMet 8:31 PM CDT on July 24, 2010
Blog slow down. Is time to discuss tomorrows' breakfast?

Rain may not even get to NewOrleans

Pat got those Uptown shields fixed...bout time
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1014. Levi32
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Storm/Levi, I asked this earlier but didn't get a response. I know that La Nina reduces wind shear and thus we have more storms. However, Alex was torn apart by wind shear from and ULL. Can the persistence of ULL's keep the wind shear up and thus have an impact on the # of storms?


I think you mean Bonnie. Bonnie was not aligned correctly with the upper low and thus was sheared by it, but think about it....normally there's a big area of shear in the Atlantic associated with the TUTT that storms have to deal with, but the TUTT is disappearing and being replaced with more cut-off upper lows. Sure these can still shear storms but they can also ventilate them, and later on in the season you'll see more storms find the ridges between the upper lows and that's when we'll see a whole train of them.
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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=99611

tried to post this but didnt show
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Levi - Yes, yes and yes. That needs to be posted here every time someone complains.
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1011. Levi32


90 days of the MJO since late April.....it hasn't even touched octants 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8. Where has it been? Octants 1, 2, and 3, where upward motion is favored over the Atlantic and Africa. It has been doing nothing but hanging around there, and will continue to do so for the remainder of the season. Every time it tries to move into the Pacific, it skips back over to the Atlantic because the water is too cold in the Pacific thanks to La Nina and the cold PDO.



Where's the greatest upward motion going to be found? Where the ocean is warmest relative to normal. Where is the ocean warmest? In the Atlantic, with the Indian Ocean at 2nd place. But the Indian tropical season is over until its 2nd peak in October and November, so where's the heat energy going to get released in the form of tropical cyclones? The only other choice is the Atlantic. That's where the world's burst of tropical activity will be in the next 3 months. There's no other place for the heat to be channeled out of the tropics, and so much was built up from the El Nino this winter that we can't simply have no tropical activity worldwide during the northern hemisphere summer. We have to burst somewhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog slow down. Is time to discuss tomorrows' breakfast?

Rain may not even get to NewOrleans. As each band passes it sort-of breaks away around me. The grass and garden are bone dry. I deliberately didn't water the yard all this week in anticipation of this rainmaker, and this is the thanks I get?!!

What kind of Karma of Kismet is this? Here I try to use nature to water the yard, plan ahead, and nothing. Oh well, tomorrow I water the yard the old fashioned way, with a garden hose. So much for 'green' gardening.

Back to breakfast... Who's up for eggs Benedict and bloody-Marys?
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Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
Great update & thorough explanation of this seasons potential Thanks
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Quoting Levi32:


How boring for you lol.


LOL I know...well we were taking guesses on when Bonnie would degenerate to pass the time. My car is in the shop so I have no motivation to leave the house unless I have to...LOL!
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1001. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


Not really for Bonnie...for me...LOL! But yeah...the last 3 nights in a row...just working the nightshift LOL!


How boring for you lol.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Fixed...dangit my brain/fingers are everywhere...no all-nighter tonight! LOL.


yes i am tired too. didn't stay up all night, but 2am was enough for me. i've got racoon eyes
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980 Levi: Thank you for the clear and concise answers. I find that (real information) refreshing.
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998. SLU
Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Fantastic downcaster eye-opener .. keep it up!
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Quoting Levi32:


LOL you surely didn't pull one for Bonnie did you?


Not really for Bonnie...for me...LOL! But yeah...the last 3 nights in a row...just working the nightshift LOL!
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Quoting atmosweather:


Fixed...dangit my brain/fingers are everywhere...no all-nighter tonight! LOL.


LOL surely you didn't pull one for Bonnie?
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Quoting Levi32:


You mean weaker.


Fixed...dangit my brain/fingers are everywhere...no all-nighter tonight! LOL.
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Quoting atmosweather:


When the NAO is negative the Azores/Bermuda high tends to be stronger and further S, which has been the case throughout much of June and July.


You mean weaker.
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Quoting Levi32:


In general, a negative NAO favors a A/B High displaced farther southwest than normal and weaker, which directs storms farther west resulting in more landfalls for the United States and Caribbean. However, the NAO pattern is not always clear-cut in the summer months, and a positive index can just as easily yield a dangerous landfalling pattern and favorable pattern for tropical development.


Sounds dangerous, either way. Thanks - I think!
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Quoting InTheCone:


Quick question - I see that the propogation of these waves is generally w to wnw in what is anticipated to be a NAO environment.(according to ralieghwx ecmfw forecast)

Will they tend toward a more poleward bias in a -NAO?

Just attempting to gain some knoweldge here! TIA.


When the NAO is negative the Azores/Bermuda high tends to be weaker and further S, which has been the case throughout much of June and July.
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985. SLU
Quoting InTheCone:


Quick question - I see that the propogation of these waves is generally w to wnw in what is anticipated to be a +NAO environment.(according to ralieghwx ecmfw forecast)

Will they tend toward a more poleward bias in a -NAO?

Just attempting to gain some knoweldge here! TIA.


Generally, -NAO favours westward movement and +NAO favours more poleward recurvature.
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Quoting NOLA70130:
rain looks like its almost here


ohhhhh,Bonnie Blue where are you???
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Quoting InTheCone:


Quick question - I see that the propogation of these waves is generally w to wnw in what is anticipated to be a NAO environment.(according to ralieghwx ecmfw forecast)

Will they tend toward a more poleward bias in a -NAO?

Just attempting to gain some knoweldge here! TIA.


In general, a negative NAO favors a A/B High displaced farther southwest than normal and weaker, which directs storms farther west resulting in more landfalls for the United States and Caribbean. However, the NAO pattern is not always clear-cut in the summer months, and a positive index can just as easily yield a dangerous landfalling pattern and favorable pattern for tropical development. We'll be seeing some of that this year with a positive NAO and yet a pattern that is favorable for many storms that will tend to track westward.
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i have to say that the swimming party turned out perfect. it was overcast and breezy, so it was not too hot and we didn't get a drop of rain. still haven't gotten any
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rain looks like its almost here
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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