Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1181 - 1131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Pick a Blob... dime a dozen :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL all the repeat post and Bring Back My Bonnie reminds me of my father's old Mitch Miller records.. They always skipped too! Ignoring OracleDeAtlantis and CoffinWood fixed my blog issues caused by post 1104.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1179. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Its quite alright hun.I know you probably didnt see my post.I got a really good rain around 3:30 this afternoon from Bonnie.But that was about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1165. What direction will the SW Caribbean disturbance move.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
1124. GR, nice obs - sure looks as it may have a good chance. Surface reflection is weak at the 850mb level, but shows a bit stronger at the 500mb level. Low shear and popping convection, too.

However, it may be competing for energy above it with the ULL near Cuba (the leftover Bonnie energy) from the the tail of the TUTT. It appears to have worked its way down nearer the surface and shows a decent surface reflection already, vorticity in each of the various layers. Additionally, the low-level easterly steering, albeit weak, might tend to move this swest Carib energy westwards into cAmerica should it get something going. Incidentally the same westward motion of the ULL keeps the two in close proximity (could have the same problem Bonnie had)>




The approaching twave axis will stretch between both areas into the next three days. If the ULL works its spin down (rarity but it happens) to the sfc, or if the ULL moves away westwards or northwards - it may allow the twave to interact with that energy in swest Carib and get some spin going.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on both these areas. NHC is watching that spin in the swest of BOC. Decent sfc reflection there, too, up thru 500mb. Good bit of dry air in the cATL but may be something trying to get going with the twave out at about 8n,50w.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1174. xcool
mrsalagranny hey .my bad
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1173. xcool



'/scott.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Thank you Xcool.The other in the BOC want the ULL pull it to the North with it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
1170. xcool
OrcaleDeAtlantis, posting youtube video the blog gets all screw up...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Decent band of storms associated with the remnants of Bonnie moving through the New Orleans area right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey Xcool how are you doing?Havent been on in a couple of days.I am sure glad Bonnie was just a simple rain maker. We were blessed this go around.Are there any other AOI's I need to be watching?TIA


There are a couple of areas of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, one in the Bay of Campeche close to the coast of Mexico, and one in the SW Caribbean. The first one in the Bay of Campeche is a broad area of low pressure that is trying to form a surface circulation but hasn't quite been able to organize due to its proximity to land and because of wind shear created by the ULL to it's north. The second is an area of convection caused by interaction with another ULL off the northern coast of Cuba and some good upper level divergence. This is mostly just a mid level feature that has very little energy and spin at the surface right now, and this should remain that way for at least a couple of days. Into next week we may have to watch this area for possible development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. JLPR2
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I think he was right all along...


Well that's an interesting idea, I would have to watch the movie again to see and I dont think I would survive it, my brain would probably implode. :(
LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
1162. JLPR2
WU seems to have some issues today with the servers, since the ''Firefox couldn't establish a connection'' message pops up every once in awhile.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting JLPR2:


Ahh! *pulls air out* LOL
Yeah, I think he did it on purpose. :S


I think he was right all along...
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
1159. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
fix now yayy


:D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1158. JLPR2
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Without giving anything away to others, I feel the ending was not what it seemed...if you know what I mean.


Ahh! *pulls air out* LOL
Yeah, I think he did it on purpose. :S
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1157. will45
the blog is fine theres just nothing going on in the tropics
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm or Levi - could either of you explain why there is so much dry air and ULLs in the tropical atlantic right now? Is this normal for early in the season, and will there be less of it in Aug-Oct when we expect the season to ramp up? Just curious - b/c regardless of warm SSTs if the upper environmental conditions are not favorable nothing can really develop - i.e. Bonnie. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Really? I kinda left me traumatized LOL
The ending was just to big of a shock for me.
I liked Inception better than Shutter Island. XD


Without giving anything away to others, I feel the ending was not what it seemed...if you know what I mean.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
1154. xcool
fix now yayy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1153. xcool
hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1152. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
fix blog Weather Underground,


You have problems with the blog?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1151. JLPR2
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Ha, I just watched that movie last night! I really liked it and intend to see it again.


Really? I kinda left me traumatized LOL
The ending was just to big of a shock for me.
I liked Inception better than Shutter Island. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Hey Xcool how are you doing?Havent been on in a couple of days.I am sure glad Bonnie was just a simple rain maker. We were blessed this go around.Are there any other AOI's I need to be watching?TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. xcool
fix blog Weather Underground,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting truecajun:
off topic. sorry. is shutter island worth watching?

we still haven't gotten a drop of rain in Baton Rouge


Ha, I just watched that movie last night! I really liked it and intend to see it again.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
1147. xcool
OrcaleDeAtlantis, posting youtube video that why blog not work rigth
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1146. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. tillou
Re: 1108 1900hurricane 2:42 AM GMT on July 25, 2010

Actually, a worse case scenario for New Orleans is a storm coming from the SW giving all the water surrounding the city.

A smaller storm, like a Cat3 moving 7 mph, could easily make the city a lot worse off than what Katerina did.

A lot of locals here don't realize this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
some one hacker blog that why


Was that the thing a night or two ago where everything was in quotes, and it was impossible to post a thing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1143. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1142. SLU
Say No To Hackers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:
Could this be out next invest in the Sw Caribbean sea???









Nope. Looks like low-level convergence and upper level divergence. There is also a ULL nearby.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1140. JLPR2
Quoting jlp09550:
Wow, it's quiet in here.. *hears crickets*


haha! yeah
Well it's Saturday and we have nothing imminent in the Atl, so yep, that's possibly it. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting xcool:
some one hacker blog that why


Weird, I don't see anything. What'd they do? Delete comments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. xcool
some one hacker blog that why
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1137. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, it's quiet in here.. *hears crickets*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1135. xcool
yep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting sammywammybamy:
IGNORE CoffinWood. His Post is Messing up the Blog.


Recheck that, genius.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1133. Patrap
Quoting Asta:
re: 1087. Patrap Thanks for Posting NASH!
I distinctly remember him on television just before Betsy... Somehow - hurricane season is not the same without him getting out that grease pencil...


Nash is da man..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1131. xcool
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

Viewing: 1181 - 1131

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.