Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1281. xcool
TampaSpin yeah make 3 times
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1280. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1279. JLPR2
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Not so much in the Carribean and GOM...


That's true, while the Eastern and Central Atl and the Eastern Caribbean are dry, the Western Caribbean and GOM are moist, it will be interesting to see how much further the dry air moves into the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
LOOKS like there was another hacker attack.....GEESH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. xcool
lmaoo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1275. xcool
sw cab ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting JLPR2:
Lots of Dry air on its way, I'll have a super week. :)

Also for the Cape Verde season to really get going the dry air needs to moisten up and disappear.



Not so much in the Carribean and GOM...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. xcool
lots of dry air
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1271. JLPR2
Lots of Dry air on its way, I'll have a super week. :)

Also for the Cape Verde season to really get going the dry air needs to moisten up and disappear.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1270. xcool
ECMWF come
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1269. xcool
k
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1268. JLPR2

Sunday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Hurray! XD
Hadn't seen that number in awhile.

Maybe I'll give the beach a little visit this week. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1267. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1266. xcool
oh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1264. xcool
why he Reported you ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1260. xcool
huh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1257. xcool
:::::)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1254. xcool
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1252. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Ironically, 1998 used the same name list as we are using this year.


yeah, that's freaky XD
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1250. xcool
cmc0z shows cv to
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1248. xcool


wow
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1247. xcool
l;olol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting JLPR2:
Some food for thought:
1998 had
June: 0 storms
July: 1 storm
August: 4 storms
September: 6 storms
October: 2 storms
November: 1 storm

I'm thinking we could see something very similar with the exception that we could have an even busier October-November possibly September too thanks to the prime fuel we have.


Ironically, 1998 used the same name list as we are using this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


No problem...I doubt this will be able to develop because of the influence of the ULL and the dry air being ingested from the land to its W...plus it doesn't have much time before the ULL lifts out and it gets steered W-ward onshore.


Yeah, I agree with you on this one, that's what I am seeing too.
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Quoting Landfalls:
JP, that track is highly doubtful this year, because of the monster ridge in place, many times haven't Drak, Levi,a nd StromW, given' that explination on this blog, my friend, LOL, :(. This will not another 09 in terms of tracks, anyone agrees? Right, Korith? No ''Bill' wannabees, sorry, man, just being real with you, that's all. By the way, parallel shows it moving WNw, prob. a northern Carribean hiter, in my book. But, remember, it's still over 300 hours away.


IMO, it seems less likely we will see "Bills." But, that doesn't mean that you can't have any storms that stay curved out to sea. Things like La Nina and MJO are in the background, not 100% applying to each system that develops.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I agree with you. I see what's going on now. Thanks.


No problem...I doubt this will be able to develop because of the influence of the ULL and the dry air being ingested from the land to its W...plus it doesn't have much time before the ULL lifts out and it gets steered W-ward onshore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


I used this evening's ASCAT pass that shows a wind shift near the MX coast...appears to be a weak surface trough that has been left behind from 98L's remnants.


Yeah, I agree with you. I see what's going on now. Thanks.
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1239. xcool
oh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 ?


Looks like JFV again. Post 1229 is invisible to me.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting JLPR2:


Yup, apparently that hurricane wanted to visit as many places as it could. LOL!
I'm impressed it reached you guys as a hurricane even after crossing so much land.


Same here.

I think that's one reason I'm so fascinated by Georges. It managed to survive the crossing of several mountainous islands, and yet still remain a hurricane.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
1234. xcool
btwntx08 ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1233. xcool
JLPR2 100% yeah :)))
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Have a good night all.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.