Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok I give up...Where's the "Directory Page"?
"member blogs"
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believe it or not land interaction is what it needs, help spin up the low level center. I've seen numerous systems struggle with a low level circulation to later look better over land with a well defined circulation
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Guys-

Just go to the blogs page and scroll down a bit. Look on the right side of the screen and you'll see it. It shows exactly what btwn was showing.
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3527. breald
Quoting MississippiWx:


There will be plenty of warm water from Brownsville, TX all the way up to Boston, MA this year. The ridge will probably stay strong enough most of the year to protect the Northeast, but North and South Carolina/Virginia might have a shot at a major this year.


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.
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3524. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, just look at the cloud pattern. It's pretty indicative of something trying to form at the surface. It might fail, but it's trying. Look at the loop of it and it's even more interesting.

BTW, not much of a downward pulse of the MJO over the Gulf and Western Caribbean:



Good observation. As a matter of fact, it seems as if the system became even better defined in its passage over land across the Yucatan throughout the day. There is a definite mid-level circulation, and I won't be surprised at all if it works itself to the surface as the system moves into the BOC. At least it is something to observe in the immediate short term.
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3523. hcubed
Quoting MTWX:

EP?? I'm stationed at Columbus AFB... Airfield Systems Technician ( prior METNAV)


Yeah, my SECOND round as an instructor.

Mil, taught my career field (Ground Radar). Then back for a second round teaching EP.

All in all, been here since '85.
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Quoting wildheron:


comments caster!



yup that my name dont ware it out
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Quoting btwntx08:

go to the directory page and scroll down abit and u will see this:
Community Participation:
2147 comments and 40 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 7 entries in your own blog.

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I was also looking for that. Where is the directory page located?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13918
Quoting whs2012:


Do you think the NHC will designate him an invest once he gets into the GOM?


If they can declare 99L an invest (which was over land), then I could definitely see them declaring this an invest if it persists.
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looks like where Alex was over the Yucatan
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at 10N/35W there is a nic low spining
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year


comments caster!
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Ok I give up...Where's the "Directory Page"?
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3513. Patrap
..Round and Round..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
3512. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-21 03:04:29
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36


2157 comments and 40 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

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3511. xcool
lots of moisture in Gulf
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Yucatan friction might help spin up a low level center
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Any storm out of the ITCZ will follow the steering into the GOM at the moment. But 2 weeks down is anyone's guess.
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3507. tkeith
3503. PensacolaDoug 3:44 PM CDT on July 26, 2010

classic...
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Quoting ElConando:


I was waiting to see what happened to it over land. You may be right, sneaky devil it is.


Yeah, just look at the cloud pattern. It's pretty indicative of something trying to form at the surface. It might fail, but it's trying. Look at the loop of it and it's even more interesting.

BTW, not much of a downward pulse of the MJO over the Gulf and Western Caribbean:

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3502. xcool
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That shows TS Colin and Danielle in the Caribbean at 240 hours. The first one looks like its heading for the USA

Is Danielle the one in the Eastern Caribbean?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.



I was waiting to see what happened to it over land. You may be right, sneaky devil it is.
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3497. xcool
Tazmanian .WOW 10 .i m call for 6 name storms for AUG .
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Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm just checked how many comments i have now i need 81 more to 7000


How do you check that?
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am forcasting 10 name storms for AUG and 10 name storm for SEP
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Quoting SaintPatrick:
Can someone whisper me and tell me how to upload photos on here and how to change my avatar.
Click your icon in your last post. You probably will be able to follow for yourself from there.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1262
The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.

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3491. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:

2nd one by puerto rico


I see a little something down in the south Caribbean, maybe too far south to develop, but certainly worth watching.
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Quoting ElConando:


Understood, good observation! If this were to be the Case the system in the NW Caribbean by the ECMWF would start slowly developing sometime between Thurs-Sat.


The first one yes, it appears the first one comes from that large naked tropical wave in the Atlantic right now that Levi mentioned in his video.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23485
Quoting CybrTeddy:
guys look at post 3430.. anyone out there? Drak, Levi, MH09?

WeatherNerd here! That looks interesting, August could be, err..., EXPLOSIVE!!!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
It's good to have goals, TAZ.
I write mine down and then check 'em off as they're done. :)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11141
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its been highly consistent, which has certainly caught my attention. It is our most reliable model, remember while it did not get Bonnie it got Alex, TD2, Bill, Fred, and a lot of other storms. Its the time of year when you start seeing consistency in the models like the ECMWF is showing it could very well develop.


Understood, good observation! If this were to be the Case the system in the NW Caribbean by the ECMWF would start slowly developing sometime between Thurs-Sat.
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Hi St. Simon's Guy,
Yeah, it's still in the ITCZ but look at the shear map and the loops it appears things ahead are moving northerly. Dunno a bit out of my depth here. CIMSS
CATLWVLoop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11141
Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!


"Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of congress; but I repeat myself." - Mark Twain
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3482. xcool
Tazmanian .nooo 90L
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3481. unf97
Quoting SouthALWX:
Wait? Politics? Im pretty sure no one was talking politics .. we were off topic sure but mostly were just taking cheap shots and making jokes across the aisle ... wait a minute...
My mistake we WERE talking politics afterall!


Thanks for editing your post and owning up for the mistake. Apology accepted by this blogger.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.