Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1381. aquak9
I wouldn't mind a coupla invests to track by my coast here in Northeast Florida. The waves bring great treasures to the beaches.

Way off topic, but the weather does have an effect on finding these.

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Quoting DestinJeff:


The UL stands for Upper Level. The ULL is an Upper Level feature only, while TCs have a surface reflection.

Sometimes a ULL can work down to the surface, however.


I agree.. they can work down to the surface but believe they start out as a cold core surface low... they would then need to transition to a warm core system... I have no examples of this happening but think it favors an Extra tropical type system or a hybrid storm...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look what I just discovered! This should answer a few questions about seasonal activity:



Goodmorning everyone, don't post much, but have been lurker for a long time, just wanted to say thanks to u for your great sense of humor.Find myself looking to see if you're on, just for my smile for the day.Oh the weather is beautiful outside, just to stay on topic lol
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1378. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look what I just discovered! This should answer a few questions about seasonal activity:

WOW!.....That must be one of those brand new graphs they came up with!....Thank you for sharing that precious gem of meteorological science...:)
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1377. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


the north pole is melting good nw passage opens soon
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I'm sure some of the N.O. folks (Pat, et. al.)
can attest to a less than tranquil A.M. thanks
to X-Bonnie..Radar really lit up around 4 am...
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Why don't ULL ever become hurricanes? They are lows, they are spinning?
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Morning all,,way too quiet in the ATL.....Was sailing yesterday, almost no wind along Tx Gulf Coast...
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Here's some dry air.. wow..
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Look at how the SOI has shooted up. Is at 17.0, which means La Nina is getting stronger.

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1369. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
it does not have much time dry air is on the move west
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Look like there is good ventilation over the storms...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
dry air envading carb and spreading west area in sw better do something cause dry air is about to shut down the whole basin it appears
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1363. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1362. scibrad
Good morning all! Since things are a tad bit quiet (currently!) just thought I'd say hi! Been reading this blog since about January and must say I find all the discussions and analysis very nice and refreshing compared to somewhat dry posts elsewhere.
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Jeff-

I just love those Homer avatars! lol
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks quiet except for some t storm clusters in sw carb that area is now approaching 24 hr mark, with thunderstorm activity i think somethings gonna come outta there


I agree with you KOG. it has had persistence... I went to read StormW blog again. Trying to retain it...lol
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Good Morning!

I see convection is firing up in the SW Caribbean and energy pulsating from that ULL will bring tropical rain into the Florida peninsula. What's the outlook for the next 10 days?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks quiet except for some t storm clusters in sw carb that area is now approaching 24 hr mark, with thunderstorm activity i think somethings gonna come outta there
Don't know about anyone else but I am still here. Thanks for your thoughts on the sw Caribbean. We had very strong thunderstorms last night.
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1356. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
what happen everyone disappeared ok i turned off the device

lol
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1355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks quiet except for some t storm clusters in sw carb that area is now approaching 24 hr mark, with thunderstorm activity i think somethings gonna come outta there
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1354. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hang on iam firing up the ultra-zonic atomspheric wave generating device to see what can spin up give me a minute

lol

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Quoting trunkmonkey:
Does anyone here use animal behavior to predict wishcasting?

I do, and have been fairly accurate!
One example of this is when I see Sandhill cranes migrate back to the north,
I see that spring is just around the corner.
With that said, they migrate in a six weeks span, from mid February to late March.
Within two or three weeks of their migration the weather breaks for the better, It's been this way for years.
Another indicator is blackbirds migrating,
the earlier they migrate the sooner we will have a early onset of winter. I've watched this pattern for many years, I would like comments on animal behaviors from you folks, to see if science or behaviors are a true indicator of weather casting!

Thanks,
In the Cayman Islands we have noticed in the past that when we see small red crabs(we call them Red Shanks) in abundance on the roads etc. it is a sign of a TS or hurricane heading in our direction.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning wunder bloggers
Morning KOG. Still watching that area in the SW Caribbean. Seems to have held together pretty good overnight.
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Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
Yesterday, the ECMWF was showing development in the Caribbean in ~10 days. What happened? Did it drop it?
BTW Good Morning!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1350. tkeith
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning wunder bloggers


That's just barely plural Keep :)
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1349. P451
A blob in the SW Car.
Remnant Bonnie moving through NO.
Blob off of Mexico associated with a low that's inland and expected to stay there.
Atlantic is dominated by dry air.


Calm before the storm so to speak? Probably.

Should be a quiet couple of days though sans blob watching.
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1348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1346. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
morning wunder bloggers
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Does anyone here use animal behavior to predict wishcasting?

I do, and have been fairly accurate!
One example of this is when I see Sandhill cranes migrate back to the north,
I see that spring is just around the corner.
With that said, they migrate in a six weeks span, from mid February to late March.
Within two or three weeks of their migration the weather breaks for the better, It's been this way for years.
Another indicator is blackbirds migrating,
the earlier they migrate the sooner we will have a early onset of winter. I've watched this pattern for many years, I would like comments on animal behaviors from you folks, to see if science or behaviors are a true indicator of weather casting!

Thanks,
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Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Thanks,Storm..on point as always!
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1341. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
Looks like a snooze-fest coming up again this week, and maybe even the next two after that.
hell, I'll drink to that too...*cheers*
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1340. tkeith
Quoting StonedCrab:
If they push him out, I hope it's from a plane, without a parachute.
I'll drink to that...*raises coffee cup*
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1339. chawk
Good Morning, I enjoy this blog and rarely comment because I am no metorological expert. The area at 15N and 80W has been very persistant and now appears to be maintaining convection throughout the day/night cycle. Could it be the NOGAPS is a week early?
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Hey Ike,
00Z ECMWF shows nothing in the western ATL through August 4th...
I don't trust that far out anymore even with ECMWF, hope it is right but it did a horrible job in picking up Bonnie.
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1333. WxLogic
Good Morning....
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If they push him out, I hope it's from a plane, without a parachute.
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While it won't make anything better retrospectively nor environmentally directly:

Not sure if it's been reported over there, but pertaining to the oil spill; BBC just reported that they 'understand' that BP's Chief Exec Tony Hayward is to resign/be pushed out.

Guess it might raise a smile or two.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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