Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie Looks better than it did on water yesterday at this time. LOL

Did the same over florida. Just like the waves over Africa.

It's the mountains in LA/MS causing orographic lift. (sry, again, in a goofy mood, I guess)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Chicklit...wasn't there a chewing gum called Dentyne Chicklits? They were great...I keep thinking of those when I see you post


Quoting Chicklit:
Nice update, 456. Thanks. The NHC 8 a.m. Discussion cites a tropical wave in the Caribbean A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

Funny, I don't see it.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well it 'did' develop Bonnie.

Bonnie was barely alive...GEM doesn't have anything next few days, neither does the ECMWF/GFS.

Pressures are forecasted to be 1018-1020 mb across the Gulf by 72 hours.

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WIND PROFILE DATA FROM DAKAR SENEGAL CLEARLY INDICATES LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA. THIS WAVE WILL BE EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

Don't see this either.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I agree.. they can work down to the surface but believe they start out as a cold core surface low... they would then need to transition to a warm core system... I have no examples of this happening but think it favors an Extra tropical type system or a hybrid storm...
It has happened many times in the past. Tropical storm Allison developed from a cold core system and made a slow transition to a warm core tropical storm before making landfall in TX in 2001.
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Quoting txag91met:


NAM stinks.


Well it 'did' develop Bonnie.
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Good Point..it will be temporary and then we'll return to the original setup

Quoting StormHype:


Like I said, no one here likes the F bomb (FISH STORM.) lol

Anyway, CV season with that setup I mentioned would probably result in fish storms or eastern seaboard US landfalls. It's a model consensus for 7 days only. The US east coast should finally get a break from the heat then.
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Quoting hydrus:
The NAM model has another low moving over the spill area in a few days.....Link


NAM stinks.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Can Anyone Post Steering Currents?
Used to be that only the few card-carrying steering current flow posters in the steering current flow poster group could do that. But, yes, now anyone can.

(sry, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&ti me)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Nice update, 456. Thanks. The NHC 8 a.m. Discussion cites a tropical wave in the Caribbean A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

Funny, I don't see it.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes


Thanks... I'm not an expert, but I'm a quick learner
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


LOL


Funny, we are still living together, she is going to finish getting her associates degree and then her and the girls are moving back to Ohio next summer. Guess it's a good thing that we can at least get along. For now...LOL
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Not really..I just believe that could happen..I do not want to lose my house again like we did with Charley. Had to re-build the entire home!
Not looking for disaster

Quoting StormHype:


Of course you say that because you're in Port Charlotte. ;-)
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1416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
yes
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Quoting alaina1085:
Checkin in from SELA, We had a little rain in the early hours this morning but nothing out of the ordinary. Now the sun is out. Bonnie lost her fuel before landfall.
Still raining on the northshore, but not a heavy rain.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Not bashing you, you're right that the storms will be able to move to the North, but a lot of storms are going to held to the South until they reach the Caribbean due to the A/B High.


No worries mate. The change in pattern I mentioned might not even last long. No one knows. Nothing much going to happen CV-wise anytime soon or even in the atlantic as 456 just commented on his blog. Hopeful 99L is going to go inland over central america.
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Morning. Just caught a bit of dryer air near Bonnie's behind, though the wind direction has been the same since yesterday morning.

Dewpoints just taking an interesting little nose dive. (Yes, it's a PWS, but 5 other stations showing the same thing)



Some of this is apparently mixed well, vertically.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


KOTG.. Did you post that to illustrate what I was trying to say?
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1409. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting alaina1085:

Well if you wanna get all technical with it, yes. She really never had it all together.


Sounds like my future ex-wife... LOL
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Quoting StormHype:


Like I said, no one here likes the F bomb (FISH STORM.) lol

Anyway, CV season with that setup I mentioned would probably result in fish storms or eastern seaboard US landfalls. It's a model consensus for 7 days only. The US east coast should finally get a break from the heat then.


Not bashing you, you're right that the storms will be able to move to the North, but a lot of storms are going to held to the South until they reach the Caribbean due to the A/B High.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


No Bonnie Lost her Steam Once she Came off Florida's Coast, that was the first time her center was exposed.

Well if you wanna get all technical with it, yes. She really never had it all together.
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Good Morning

Blog Update

Last week of July 2010
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Not really, the High breaking down in the S.E. U.S., will allow storms to plow into the CONUS. The A/B High is still going to be there keeping storms from heading out to open waters (W / NW) track for the season is most likely once the CV season begins.


Like I said, no one here likes the F bomb (FISH STORM.) lol

Anyway, CV season with that setup I mentioned would probably result in fish storms or eastern seaboard US landfalls. It's a model consensus for 7 days only. The US east coast should finally get a break from the heat then.
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Checkin in from SELA, We had a little rain in the early hours this morning but nothing out of the ordinary. Now the sun is out. Bonnie lost her fuel before landfall.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Florida's Risk is High this Year?


Just from what I have learned, the entire N. Gulf coast from Tx / La to the Fl panhandle should be at higher risk. S. Florida is also at a higher risk. The weather site we use for work graphically shows this I'd post it, but it's a pay site that my company foots the bill for. Not sure if I'd get in trouble.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Fish storms to the east but anything to the south should move north in the central and east Gulf IMO with that upper trough set-up



Of course you say that because you're in Port Charlotte. ;-)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. Going to be a long week at work without anything to obsess over in the tropics!


Kinda glad I have to work 5 outta the next 7 nights.... then 7 off
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African wave train is .... on vacation!

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1392. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:
I wouldn't mind a coupla invests to track by my coast here in Northeast Florida. The waves bring great treasures to the beaches.

Way off topic, but the weather does have an effect on finding these.

The NAM model has another low moving over the spill area in a few days.....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20328
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys one more day and I am back on the plane in the morn 2mrrow at 7. I see that our SW Carib AOI has done well over night maybe 99L soon I guess ok yea 2 of out ministers are here in Trinidad in the same hotel all from Cayman know what I mean and for the others that don't know I mean Gov.t ministers
Which ones ?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is the big picture up to 904 am




the wave off Africa dissipated
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Fish storms to the east but anything to the south should move north in the central and east Gulf IMO with that upper trough set-up

Quoting StormHype:


Looking at nearly all the models shows the long lasting high over the SE US completely breaking down in a week. This will set up the steering patters for a train of FISH STORMS just as the season starts to ramp up. There! I dropped the F bomb (FISH STORM.) I will probably get ignored and/or banned for 24 hours. lol
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Quoting StormHype:


Looking at nearly all the models shows the long lasting high over the SE US completely breaking down in a week. This will set up the steering patters for a train of FISH STORMS just as the season starts to ramp up. There! I dropped the F bomb (FISH STORM.) I will probably get ignored and/or banned for 24 hours. lol


Not really, the High breaking down in the S.E. U.S., will allow storms to plow into the CONUS. The A/B High is still going to be there keeping storms from heading out to open waters (W / NW) track for the season is most likely once the CV season begins.
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Thanks! A great job and easy to understand!


Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
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Quoting canehater1:


Your sat pic posted shows it well..all way to GOMEX..little thin trail over Cent Fla.


Looking at nearly all the models shows the long lasting high over the SE US completely breaking down in a week. This will set up the steering patters for a train of FISH STORMS just as the season starts to ramp up. There! I dropped the F bomb (FISH STORM.) I will probably get ignored and/or banned for 24 hours. lol
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1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
here is the big picture up to 904 am



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StormW if you are on...I just wanted to say thank-you for the very informative analysis on your website of the future Hurricane season. I printed it out and will have it as my guide this season! Thanks again for explaining it all in an understandable manner...
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Good morning guys one more day and I am back on the plane in the morn 2mrrow at 7. I see that our SW Carib AOI has done well over night maybe 99L soon I guess ok yea 2 of out ministers are here in Trinidad in the same hotel all from Cayman know what I mean and for the others that don't know I mean Gov.t ministers
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
dry air envading carb and spreading west area in sw better do something cause dry air is about to shut down the whole basin it appears


Your sat pic posted shows it well..all way to GOMEX..little thin trail over Cent Fla.
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1381. aquak9
I wouldn't mind a coupla invests to track by my coast here in Northeast Florida. The waves bring great treasures to the beaches.

Way off topic, but the weather does have an effect on finding these.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.