Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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00z ECMWF shows a weaker system 192 hours out but still there. Its worth watching.



12z GFS para is interesting, looks like a strong wave/ TD off Africa at 162 hours.


at 192 hours


Will be interesting if either of these scenarios play out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24545
sheer over the area is 10ktish,looks like a anticyclone building aloft near the area as well(nicaragua area)....
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456..once in the W. Carib an upper trof is expected over in the E. US coast. If it hung around could the potential system go north?


Quoting Weather456:


once it reaches the area of low pressure in the WCAIB (1-2 days), it will have a small window of opportunity in which to do so before the entire area moves across CAMERICA (2-3 days).
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1478. Asta
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1477. whs2012
Quoting stillwaiting:
look near 14N,81W that appears to be where a surface circulation is trying/starting to intiate IMO...


So this is going to have no impact on the US, right?
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Weather456 is catching the storms first again! Thanks 456.
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look near 14N,81W that appears to be where a surface circulation is trying/starting to intiate IMO...
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1474. Asta
Thanks!
I gave the dogs some breakfast and they're better now..no more thunder!





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On second thought, this dewpoint drop is prolly just the usual diurnal cycle-type. Right time of day for it...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1472. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


here you go, Ike.


Action:
Quote
| Ignore User




LOL...
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Quoting wxhatt:


Do you think has potential for development?


once it reaches the area of low pressure in the WCAIB (1-2 days), it will have a small window of opportunity in which to do so before the entire area moves across CAMERICA (2-3 days).
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1470. whs2012
Are conditions favorable? No ULL's to tear it apart? Lol
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Good Morning StormW,Ike,W456 and everyone else, I see we all have our coffee this morning.
At least our wave brought some rain and cooled down the temps a little. Last week at the boat shop the heat index was 112. It was so hot. Sometimes it makes it hard to breath. So from what i am reading it's suppose to be quite for the next couple of weeks. I read your blog StormW really good update. And Thank You. You make it easy to read for the ones that don't understand all the weather terms. So does Levi and some others. Thanks for all the work you all do and the time you take to do it.
sheri
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That's fantastic! Thanks 456!
I see it now.
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notice the area off nicuragua,looks like next invest IMO!!!
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Quoting IKE:


Positive thinking! +1



Great Picture +10

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1464. wxhatt
Quoting Weather456:
For those that cannot see the tropical wave in the central caribbean look at:

water vapor loop - nearing 70W notice cyclonic turning in the mid-level dry air.

AVN infrared - notice light shower activity approaching 70W marking the line of convergence along the surface reflection of the wave.

San Juan Upper Air time obs - notice the jet max near 24-25 July at 800mb-750mb

and weak vorticity anomaly at 700 mb.


Do you think has potential for development?
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1463. IKE
Quoting Asta:

we had a big gush this morning with lots of lightning strikes. Both Dogs got scared, jumped up on the bed shaking from the thunder.. The geese didn't care.. I'm just grateful for the rain. Keeps things cooler.
if the season stays like this- I'm fine with that.


Positive thinking! +1

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Looks like a Slow week in the tropics. But hey Dr.Jeff Masters is on Vacation, Sp something will problay pop up
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1461. Asta
Quoting atmoaggie:
??? Wow. 15 miles away from you, we got under an inch.

I did notice yesterday and this morning that you guys were getting a lot more on the radar...

we had a big gush this morning with lots of lightning strikes. Both Dogs got scared, jumped up on the bed shaking from the thunder.. The geese didn't care.. I'm just grateful for the rain. Keeps things cooler.
if the season stays like this- I'm fine with that.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
G'morn. Break time while I go make coffee. Been sitting on the porch watching the trees sway leaves wiggle in the winds breeze.

hahahaha...cute. yes, atmo. it's all in the editing! good morning.
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For those that cannot see the tropical wave in the central caribbean look at:

water vapor loop - nearing 70W notice cyclonic turning in the mid-level dry air.

AVN infrared - notice light shower activity approaching 70W marking the line of convergence along the surface reflection of the wave.

San Juan Upper Air time obs - notice the jet max near 24-25 July at 800mb-750mb

and weak vorticity anomaly at 700 mb.
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1458. wxhatt
Good Morning All,

Even though there is a lot of SAL around, it looks like there's plenty of moisture in the caribbean.

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Quoting Asta:
Hey all-
4.5 inches of rain here North of Covington, LA-
just stopped raining.. Bonnie's fizzle-drizzle was great for the garden...


You got More rain than us here in south florida, when bonnie was still a tropical storm. but then again she was moving faster when she hit SFL, now she is slowing over Lousiana.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting hydrus:
I have seen him many times in the past 20 years or so...Good Morning Sammy and Atmo..
G'morn. Break time while I go make coffee. Been sitting on the porch watching the trees sway leaves wiggle in the winds breeze.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Weather456:


the wave marks the the leading edge of the SAL airmass

Hi 456, Dakar, Senegal is way over on the east coast.


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1453. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


To all in Lousiana, Have you Seen this man today?




EDIT: ITS JIM CANTORE.
I have seen him many times in the past 20 years or so...Good Morning Sammy and Atmo..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
Quoting Asta:
Hey all-
4.5 inches of rain here North of Covington, LA-
just stopped raining.. Bonnie's fizzle-drizzle was great for the garden...
??? Wow. 15 miles away from you, we got under an inch.

I did notice yesterday and this morning that you guys were getting a lot more on the radar...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting Chicklit:
Nice update, 456. Thanks. The NHC 8 a.m. Discussion cites a tropical wave in the Caribbean A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

Funny, I don't see it.



the wave marks the the leading edge of the SAL airmass
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1449. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:


That was Chiclets Gum.
I'm a cross between Chick Literature and Chicken Little.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Chicklit...wasn't there a chewing gum called Dentyne Chicklits? They were great...I keep thinking of those when I see you post


They still make Chiclets.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
1448. Asta
Hey all-
4.5 inches of rain here North of Covington, LA-
just stopped raining.. Bonnie's fizzle-drizzle was great for the garden...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Did the same over florida. Just like the waves over Africa.

It's the mountains in LA/MS causing orographic lift. (sry, again, in a goofy mood, I guess)
...^Lifting^ an Oreo® from the cookie jar while reading about orographic lift.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Nice update, 456. Thanks. The NHC 8 a.m. Discussion cites a tropical wave in the Caribbean A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

Funny, I don't see it.


u cant see it cause whats in bold
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Jim Cantore..
Ohhh. TWC hasn't graced a TV of mine in about 10 years...didn't recognize him.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, I don't think so, but who is that?


Jim Cantore..
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


To all in Lousiana, Have you Seen this man today?



Well, I don't think so, but who is that?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Funny! Thanks for the explanation!

Quoting Chicklit:


That was Chiclets Gum.
I'm a cross between Chick Literature and Chicken Little.
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes, there is a cloud near the center today.....:)


To all in Lousiana, Have you Seen this man today?




EDIT: ITS JIM CANTORE.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
NAM is only good for 48hrs, beyond that its useless.....its a good short term model for showing development of thunderstorms....and does a good job at showing that.
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I don't see it either...I think they were trying to come up with something new to say. They probably were reading our blog

Quoting TampaSpin:


The Dry Air is coming into the Central and Western Caribbean it appears but, its only in the Eastern Caribbean at the moment......the reason it won't develop for now it because of very high shear caused by an ULL ot the North near Cuba....Funny is a good word!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
EX-BONNIE Made Landfall.


yet she's still got a Yellow circle around her on the TWO.
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1437. hydrus
Quoting txag91met:


NAM stinks.
LOL !....A little grouchy txag or what? Picking on poor NAM like that....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
Quoting etringer:

Yes, they are reporting up to 60 mile an hour winds. Hopefully we'll get some rain.

Umm, okay, I'll bite.



Did you mean "up to 6 mph winds"?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting portcharlotte:
Chicklit...wasn't there a chewing gum called Dentyne Chicklits? They were great...I keep thinking of those when I see you post




That was Chiclets Gum.
I'm a cross between Chick Literature and Chicken Little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Nice update, 456. Thanks. The NHC 8 a.m. Discussion cites a tropical wave in the Caribbean A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

Funny, I don't see it.



The Dry Air is coming into the Central and Western Caribbean it appears but, its only in the Eastern Caribbean at the moment......the reason it won't develop for now it because of very high shear caused by an ULL ot the North near Cuba....Funny is a good word!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie Looks better than it did on water yesterday at this time. LOL

Yes, they are reporting up to 60 mile an hour winds. Hopefully we'll get some rain.
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1432. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie Looks better than it did on water yesterday at this time. LOL
Yes, there is a cloud near the center today.....:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie Looks better than it did on water yesterday at this time. LOL

Did the same over florida. Just like the waves over Africa.

It's the mountains in LA/MS causing orographic lift. (sry, again, in a goofy mood, I guess)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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