Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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looks like i may get some rain coming from the south in an hr or two
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Quoting caneswatch:


Did you see Teddy's blog yesterday? Storm after storm, each one becoming worse than the one before it. Hate to say it, but I think it's true. The set-up this season is ominous.


The setup is very ominous to me, that's why I believe that will happen. Remember 2008? We had Fay then all hell broke loose on Earth.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
1528. Patrap
Quoting treehuggingsister:
Oh, PAT! Rock on! I have always loved his stuff. Congratulations to the missus for her discerning eye!


Ty..shes a keepa .

and we happy about it definitely.
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New Pouch to track from Naval Postgraduate School





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1526. GBguy88
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well those are the people with no common sense whatsoever. Those are also the people that like destruction.



Indeed. I joked about Bonnie, but all joking aside, we got lucky. It's still early. Horrible thought to have, but I wonder when the next Category 5 US landfall will occur. Not wishcasting or anything like that, I wouldn't wish that on my enemy...but just curious as to when history will repeat itself.
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Hey Ike looks like the if ands buts for the future doom are on here as usual.Looking at these models constantly for the ray of hope for the biggie lol.Well maybe it will get busy maybe it want.Instead of looking at models and making constant climatological comparisons,maybe they should be at the only forecasters house today that knows 100% whats going to happen in the future.it is Sunday. also I think sometimes God lays in his hand to prove the opposite just to show man how arrogant he has become imo. Also I constantly see on this blog the comparison between 1998 and this year.Late start, large number of storms.Well what they leave out was it was also a year of upper level lows and shear.Most of the storms were in the gulf and were weak and sheared systems.albi though bonnie cat 2 nc. george cat 2 keys and ms passed right over me minor damage mostly a rainmaker.The worst that season had to offer was for the carrib.Georges at its peak and mitch which was devastating for nic and honduras.Just felt like they compare the seasons but forget the rest,Would be nice to come on this blog and see people focus on the current instead of wishcasting the future.Ike have a blessed day and GOD bless
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
Oh, PAT! Rock on! I have always loved his stuff. Congratulations to the missus for her discerning eye!
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Quoting caneswatch:


Did you see Teddy's blog yesterday? Storm after storm, each one becoming worse than the one before it. Hate to say it, but I think it's true. The set-up this season is ominous.
Yep.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.


Did you see Teddy's blog yesterday? Storm after storm, each one becoming worse than the one before it. Hate to say it, but I think it's true. The set-up this season is ominous.
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George Ohr....oooweeee, that's sweet. Time for a big ol' celebration at the residence tonite. Congrats.
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Quoting ElConando:


^^^
That's it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hurricane23:
In my view i think bonnies track tends to give us a clue what the atmospheric set-up might be come the real season August/September.

The southeast is at high-risk this season once things get rolling in 2-3 weeks.


^^^

Levi also a few posts later talked about how the climatology model for Bonnie had her go North and east of Florida. Showing the amount of ridging that steered her toward Florida.

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting GBguy88:


People will still be wishing for large storms all of those months, as they do every month from June through November :)
Well those are the people with no common sense whatsoever. Those are also the people that like destruction.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1517. Patrap
A similar piece..

Ours is same Glaze but much more ornate.



George Ohr

..from Biloxi..

Piece we have was made here in NOLA while he had a 2 years stint called LA Pottery on Barrone Street.

I thought the thing was a chamber pot.
She told me ,best stick to weather Dude.

I agree.



THE POTTERY of GEORGE E. OHR

Contributed by: www.Marks4Antiques.com

And then came the good part said Martin Shack. Remembering the exhilaration of the chase, he couldn't get the words out fast enough, as he told the tale of how he, an insurance broker from Bellmore,

New York, and his wife, Estelle, had become the foremost collectors of the idiosyncratic pottery of George E. Ohr. Around the turn of the century, in Biloxi, Mississippi, Ohr created some of the most original American art pottery now in existence.

Sitting in his living room, Mr. Shack was recalling the day in 1976 when one of George Ohr's sons had led him into a tumbledown Biloxi house, one of several dilapidated Ohr family residences.

"It was like the Collyer brothers. It was like a garbage dump. The ceiling was falling in. There were old mattresses around." In the midst of the mess stood a noble ceramic urn, five feet tall, unglazed. "We had to clear a path to get to it," said Mr. Shack. "We paid $6,000 for it - reluctantly." "I thought it was a white elephant," said Mrs. Shack. "I still think so. But we couldn't leave it there. We really had to save it." Ohr pottery had been on the market for only four years at that time, after more than a half-century in the attics of the potter's descendants. The urn, as far as anyone knows, is the largest piece of its kind that exists.

The Shack collection, which is one of two or three distinguished private hoards of Ohr, consists of 300 pieces - one hundred of which have just come back from the first one-man show of George Ohr's pottery, organized by the Mississippi State Historical Museum in Jackson this past spring. Though the Shacks own a curious miscellany of other objects - from Mexican museum replicas and petticoated porcelain damsels to sentimental plaster figures by John Rogers, and a trick papier-mache bulldog on wheels - it is the Ohr pots in contorted, explosive shapes, extravagantly glazed that dominate the house. Some Ohr collectors - and these include the Smithsonian Institution and the Brooklyn Museum as well as independent connoisseurs - may come to their passion for the work of "the mad potter of Biloxi," as he was known, through an interest in the American Arts & Crafts movement of the turn of the century. Like its counterpart in England and on the Continent, the art pottery movement was in part a reaction against the mass-produced factory pottery of the nineteenth century.
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1516. GBguy88
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.


People will still be wishing for large storms all of those months, as they do every month from June through November :)
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1515. Patrap
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stormpatrol:I think their's a surface trough offshore western LA though....
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Quoting Patrap:
Never doubt ones Luck,and the Power of the Antiques Road Show.

Wife made it onto the production floor at the Antiques Road Show in Biloxi yesterday.

And when the appraiser told her what the value of a Single Pottery piece was.

She,,and a friend in the green room watching the Taping production,,well...went directly to tears.

Im still in shock.


Were very happy.

Show will air in January.

That's great news Pat. What type of pottery is it?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
LLC of ex Bonnie still offshore at 28N/93.5W



nope inland since yesterday.......
440 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA FOR TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Were at High risk this season arent we? The high looks close to 04 and maybe 05.
Remember what Adrian (hurricane23) said yesterday? If not I'll try to find the post.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.

+1 "Tropical Fart" LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
Never doubt ones Luck,and the Power of the Antiques Road Show.

Wife made it onto the production floor at the Antiques Road Show in Biloxi yesterday.

And when the appraiser told her what the value of a Single Pottery piece was.

She,,and a friend in the green room watching the Taping production,,well...went directly to tears.

Im still in shock.


Were very happy.

Show will air in January.




Congrats!!
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1508. Asta
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Quoting IKE:
Ya think there's a high pressure centered just north of NC?


Looks like an anticyclone is trying to form just north of Panama with a blob of convection.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.
+1
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1505. whs2012
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.


Lol, true…
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.


Were at High risk this season arent we? The high looks close to 04 and maybe 05.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
All of you saying that Bonnie was a "tropical fart" your gonna be wishing for those come August, September, and October.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
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Quoting FtLaudman:
Tropical Storm Bonnie amounted to what is equalivent to Mother Nature having a "tropical fart" just little wind.


Amen
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
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LLC of ex Bonnie still offshore at 28N/93.5W
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1498. Patrap


by Maya Rodriguez / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on July 24, 2010 at 6:24 PM

Updated yesterday at 6:24 PM

GRAND ISLE, La - From overcast skies and rain, to the hot sun and steam that followed, revelers at Island Aid didn't let anything get in their way of a good time.

"It looks like South Beach out here, don't you think?" said Philip Toups of Thibodaux.

Grand Isle's beach opened up to the public for the benefit concert, which is taking the place of this year's Tarpon Rodeo. It is the first time in more than 80 years that the rodeo has been canceled-- all because of the BP oil spill. The tourism-based economy on the island has been hit hard. Bobby Pitre's art is depicting some of that frustration, through its oil spill-related images.
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1496. Patrap
Quoting Asta:

Congrats!!


tyvm...

One has to find a Big Safety Deposit Box though.
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1495. Patrap
Was perfect sleeping in weather from Bonnie's remnant's Uptown this am too..rumbling and stumbling it was.
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Good Morning,
2) Just had to post to watch Ike's eyebrow raise again. 1) Have been lurking since getting stuck inside with Fla's 4 in a row and ran across the site. Belong to the old school, don't say much unless I know something about it and then I talk your ear off. Since I know little about the weather, there has been no reason to post.
Only posting now to say I liked Storm's rendition of a hypothesis chart to analyse the predictors for the rest of the season. I may use that in my class to illustrate how to study a complex system.
As to the drama, it once again illustrates that physical science is not dull once the scientists, pseudo-scientists, and anti-scientists enter the picture. It is a key part of science in the real world that scientists have to learn to deal with.
Looks like a Chamber of Commerce day in Ormond Beach. Have a great day!
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1493. Asta
Quoting Patrap:
Never doubt ones Luck,and the Power of the Antiques Road Show.

Wife made it onto the production floor at the Antiques Road Show in Biloxi yesterday.

And when the appraiser told her what the value of a Single Pottery piece was.

She,,and a friend in the green room watching the Taping production,,well...went directly to tears.

Im still in shock.


Were very happy.

Show will air in January.


Congrats!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1492. Patrap
Never doubt ones Luck,and the Power of the Antiques Road Show.

Wife made it onto the production floor at the Antiques Road Show in Biloxi yesterday.

And when the appraiser told her what the value of a Single Pottery piece was.

She,,and a friend in the green room watching the Taping production,,well...went directly to tears.

Im still in shock.


Were very happy.

Show will air in January.



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Tropical Update July 25th. 2010
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1490. cg2916
Notice how slow the blog is when nothing is out there.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF shows a weaker system 192 hours out but still there. Its worth watching.



12z GFS para is interesting, looks like a strong wave/ TD off Africa at 162 hours.


at 192 hours


Will be interesting if either of these scenarios play out.
You may of missed the disturbance in the SW Caribbean on the 12z parallel GFS at 192 hours. Although it is long range it is something to watch for nonetheless.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
Ya think there's a high pressure centered just north of NC?



i do, its gonna be 104 here today.....
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Tropical Storm Bonnie amounted to what is equalivent to Mother Nature having a "tropical fart" just little wind.
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1486. Asta
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1485. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
Ya think there's a high pressure centered just north of NC?



Yes, because I'm baking in SC.
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1484. whs2012
Quoting Asta:


Hmmm....98L doesn't look that bad...kinda surprised it didn't even make depression status. :/
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Quoting IKE:


LOL!

Anytime anybody comes on here and says....

(1)I've been lurking for years....
(2)Thought I would finally join in on the blog....

Sorry...it raises an eyebrow.



I come in peace IKE.... I've always noticed you are one of the most verbose in the group and I enjoy reading your entries. I look forward to interacting with everyone when it gets dicey in here :)
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1482. IKE
Ya think there's a high pressure centered just north of NC?

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00z ECMWF shows a weaker system 192 hours out but still there. Its worth watching.



12z GFS para is interesting, looks like a strong wave/ TD off Africa at 162 hours.


at 192 hours


Will be interesting if either of these scenarios play out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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