Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting skkippboo:


Ok, sorry, bad sense of humor. Back to weather lurking for me.
It's all good. I wasn't singling you out. I don't think you saw the original post. I think he realized that he put his mouth in gear before thinking.

Your right, back to weather.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've seen hail in recon reports, in Gustav and Felix.


Rare....that's the key word. also Marilyn 1995.
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Blog Update!

July 25, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDT - Tropics Quiet...But Will It Last?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yesterday's 7 day surface forecast from HPC shows it as a tropical wave in the Caribbean.


Just looking for potential trouble in a relatively quiet pattern. The EC seems to want to increase the energy in the northern end of the wave towards the end of its run. Outside chance of interaction with residual energy lying off the East Coast especially as it nears the Bahamas.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I believe the story mentioned "for unknown reasons", so could he have been in bad health, maybe had a heart attack while crossing the road, on drugs or drunk, suicidal? I'm sure his family and friends are all in stitches right about now. In any case, most normal people would not see humor in a human beings death.


Ok, sorry, bad sense of humor. Back to weather lurking for me.
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Quoting Weather456:



lol, you kidding right? all tropical thunderstorms contain lightning, including MCS, airmass thunderstorms, tropical waves, tropical storms and hurricanes. What is rare in tropical thunderstorms is hail.


I've seen hail in recon reports, in Gustav and Felix.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thats only the case with hurricanes...most of the time anyways.
No, all tropical thunderstorms contain lightning.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Most tropical Systems do not contain lighting.

I know. I guess it's cuz she was wasn't really more than a thunderstorm??
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Most tropical Systems do not contain lighting.


Thats only the case with hurricanes...most of the time anyways.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Most tropical Systems do not contain lighting.



lol, you kidding right? all tropical thunderstorms contain lightning, including MCS, airmass thunderstorms, tropical waves, tropical storms and hurricanes. What is rare in tropical thunderstorms is hail.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very funny. Laughing at the death of others. I bet the family of the person that died isn't laughing.


I wasn't laughing. It really is sad. But there is actually a website for the Darwin Awards.
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Blog Update

Last week of July 2010
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Quoting skkippboo:


Only people who do dumb stuff and get themselves killed are nominated for the Darwin Awards. Laying down in a busy roadway, or any roadway, for whatever reason, I consider dumb.
I believe the story mentioned "for unknown reasons", so could he have been in bad health, maybe had a heart attack while crossing the road, on drugs or drunk, suicidal? I'm sure his family and friends are all in stitches right about now. In any case, most normal people would not see humor in a human beings death.
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Bonnie came through early this morn with a good bit of needed rain and LOTS of thunder a d lightening.
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1566. Asta
re:1517. Patrap 3:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
OHR!!
You have one of his "Mud babies!"
He used Tchoutacabouffa River Clay

Love his work!! You are so fortunate!
YES- Pack that sucker up in a safe box immediately!
"The Mad Potter of Biloxi!!"
''Unequaled! Unrivaled! Undisputed! Greatest Art Potter on Earth''
http://www.georgeohr.org/
He also worked on Cadilacs and model T's at this sons Garage and repair shop- which is how his work was discovered...
NY TIMES on OHR
You are so fortunate!
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1564. Patrap
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
this stuff is very old, weathered, went thru katrina flood waters, was cracked a bit, think each pc was appraised at 2500.00

so she had an Ohr pc, very nice. I live right around the corner from his last studio. Kinda funny, bk in the day ppl in Biloxi thought he was a wing nut but now they all praise him


Ive done about 3 hours research on Him since last night.

Fascinating Guy,..a before his time eccentric definately.

Right now LSU Art Museum is having a Orr showing as well.

One never knows whatcha got,till ya do.

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Quoting skkippboo:


Only people who do dumb stuff and get themselves killed are nominated for the Darwin Awards. Laying down in a busy roadway, or any roadway, for whatever reason, I consider dumb.
Very funny. Laughing at the death of others. I bet the family of the person that died isn't laughing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


But honestly, why would you lye in the middle of a busy roadway, unless your trying to kill yourself.

It was a 24 year old man why would he kill himself, he would have at least 50+ years left in his life.
No-one knows what goes on in someone else's mind.
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1560. Patrap
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
cool Pat and I will let you know which show to look for that will have my work and my boss's stuff as well

got boomers here in Biloxi, no rain yet


Boomers left a cool, less Humid day here.

A lil Bonnie good thang one could say.

I may go to Gulfport to introduce my German Shepherd to SaltWater..and to relax on da beach tomorrow.

A rest if ya will.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Which one? The person in the story, or the poster?


Only people who do dumb stuff and get themselves killed are nominated for the Darwin Awards. Laying down in a busy roadway, or any roadway, for whatever reason, I consider dumb.
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Random...but very interesting nonetheless.

Hurricane Felix.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormlvr:


Yeah nrt, been watching the energy near the African Coast now. Could be interesting as it approaches the Caribbean late in the week through the weekend. May not have the best "MoJo" so to speak but nothing the right interaction with a ULL couldn't overcome.


Yesterday's 7 day surface forecast from HPC shows it as a tropical wave in the Caribbean.
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Quoting skkippboo:


We have a nominee for the Darwin awards!!
Which one? The person in the story, or the poster?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
"A 24-year-old West Palm Beach man who was apparently lying in the roadway on Military Trail was killed early today when he was stuck by a vehicle that did not stop.

Darrell JeanRenaud was pronounced dead on the scene about 4:30 a.m., according to the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office.

Deputies said their "investigation determined that for unknown reasons" JeanRenaud was lying in the right through lanes of southbound Military Trail, south of Roebuck Road, when he was struck."


We have a nominee for the Darwin awards!!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
New Pouch to track from Naval Postgraduate School







Yeah nrt, been watching the energy near the African Coast now. Could be interesting as it approaches the Caribbean late in the week through the weekend. May not have the best "MoJo" so to speak but nothing the right interaction with a ULL couldn't overcome.
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Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

Nada... diddly squat...zippo.... on the models.
Subtle hints in the Southern Caribbean is about it.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

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Blog Update!

July 25, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDT - Tropics Quiet...But Will It Last?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hey everyone,
Well all i can say about What Ever "Bonnie" Was (Nothing)....
The highest wind I got from an outer-banding was 19.7 MPH
at Waveland MS out side of Pass Christian....
Waves 1 to 2 feet and thats it....
that was taken at aprox 6:30 7:00 oclock....
Then nothing else untill after dark and could not see any more....
We did run into a lot of Tropical Rain on the way home but again thats it....

Taco :o)
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1548. Patrap
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:



cool,the production crew came to my work and had dinner Fri evening and did a small pc on the French House ( which at one time was the Gov of La's home bk in da day), my boss also got some stuff looked at, some wood carving things that came out of the very first opra house in N O


Cool for sure.

French Opera Haus stuff very rare.

They producing 3 shows in January to Air from yesterday.

Should be kicks and giggles here when it runs. Ill post a heads up before it runs then.
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14N/82.5W looks rather interesting, been persistent also.
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Cape Verde development a real possibility 7/25/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
1542. bappit
Quoting stormpetrol:
LLC of ex Bonnie still offshore at 28N/93.5W

Which would explain the yellow circle.
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windman read post 1525 lol.
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Quoting Asta:


Dry Air covers the ENTIRE ATLANTIC. This year will be below Normal. Sorry NOAA you are completely wrong and overpaid
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Ita a real story.

Im just laughing cause what (Explict) would lay in the middle of a road way.
Maybe someone who had some serious problems. Judge not lest ye be judged. Show some compassion for others.
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Quoting Patrap:


Ty..shes a keepa .

and we happy about it definitely.
I'd keep the wife but ditch the pottery in this economy. WOW, a piece that big, more ornate. Trade her in for 100-200 ounces of gold.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
"A 24-year-old West Palm Beach man who was apparently lying in the roadway on Military Trail was killed early today when he was stuck by a vehicle that did not stop.

Darrell JeanRenaud was pronounced dead on the scene about 4:30 a.m., according to the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office.

Deputies said their "investigation determined that for unknown reasons" JeanRenaud was lying in the right through lanes of southbound Military Trail, south of Roebuck Road, when he was struck."

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
If this is true you are one sick puppy. What do you find funny about this ?
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Quoting GBguy88:



Indeed. I joked about Bonnie, but all joking aside, we got lucky. It's still early. Horrible thought to have, but I wonder when the next Category 5 US landfall will occur. Not wishcasting or anything like that, I wouldn't wish that on my enemy...but just curious as to when history will repeat itself.
If timing is on the money we could see a category 5 U.S landfall this year. As nasty as it sounds it remains as a very good possibility.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1532. gator23
Quoting sammywammybamy:
"A 24-year-old West Palm Beach man who was apparently lying in the roadway on Military Trail was killed early today when he was stuck by a vehicle that did not stop.

Darrell JeanRenaud was pronounced dead on the scene about 4:30 a.m., according to the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office.

Deputies said their "investigation determined that for unknown reasons" JeanRenaud was lying in the right through lanes of southbound Military Trail, south of Roebuck Road, when he was struck."

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

? I dont get it?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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