Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1681 - 1631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

1681. Drakoen
Very nice to see that the Pouch tracking Website is working with the University of Wisconsin to give us cimss graphic on areas of interest including satellite imagery and animations of the eastern Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think it's the other way around. I have been through a few weak storms in Tampa and have only seen lightning within outmost rainbands. I also experienced a direct from category 3 Georges in La Romana, DR... That had absolutely no lightning at all until the eyewall. And even then it was very infrequent.
Through my life time I've been in the eye of powerful hurricanes,Including Georges in PR, none of them had electrical storms, some lightnign after the eyes passes through, in my island folklore says" "Praise the lightning since it means, the storm is over." It's not scientific but just personal experiences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi32 ...can the homegrown mischief go west or southwest or most likely be "fish" storms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone interested?

Link

LOL......
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1675. help4u
Thanks Stom W and Levi32,you guys do agreat job!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gorty:
When mets look at a cloudy/showery mess say it is disorganized but then the next day (assuming it got a little btter organized)it got a little better organzied. How do they tell it got a litle btter organized? Heck screw 24 hours later, they even can tell from just 6 hours later.


The three big things I look for to see if a wave is organizing are, in order of importance, increase in cyclonic rotation at any level, increase of self sustained convection, and formation of outflow boundaries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's going to be a nasty year for the eastern Florida coast. I might experience my first evacuation.

Did they not issue evacs for for Floyd in 1999?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
According to the not-so accurate AccuWeather.com, the congregation of tracks will be focused on the Greater Antilles-Bahamas area, which is not good for me, Haiti, or any one of the people of said regions.
It's going to be a nasty year for the eastern Florida coast. I might experience my first evacuation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
According to the not-so accurate AccuWeather.com, the congregation of tracks will be focused on the Greater Antilles-Bahamas area, which is not good for me, Haiti, or any one of the people of said regions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1668. Gorty
When mets look at a cloudy/showery mess say it is disorganized but then the next day (assuming it got a little btter organized)it got a little better organzied. How do they tell it got a litle btter organized? Heck screw 24 hours later, they even can tell from just 6 hours later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1667. Patrap

Hurricane Preparation 2010




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now look at the upward motion "retrograding" if you will back to our basin.

And it's right over the CATL, so CV season's gonna be fierce.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Go to Patraps Blog. It is really good for hurricane preparedness.
Specifically this one:

2010 Hurricane Preparation
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Having been involved in Catastrophe Operations (Property Insurance)for 17 years, I've relied on the more experienced posters here for quite a while. I don't ever post, because I wouldn't add anything to the discussion. I just created a profile to say thanks. This was prompted by StormW's frustration a few days ago. Don't go anywhere. As far as I'm concerned some of you need to search out jobs with Catastrophe Modeling Companies. Your knowledge would be an asset to many.

At my current rate, I'll post again in about 7-8 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1663. hydrus
Quoting scott39:
Does any one have a hurricane prepare list?
Go to Patraps Blog. It is really good for hurricane preparedness.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF
TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
NNNN

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1661. srada
Hello Everyone

Beautiful hot day in NC today..Looks like another two weeks for Cape Verde storms to really get going? I said earlier in the season I think homebred storms may be the ones that will be significant in this hurricane season..how is the SAL looking for August?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Does any one have a hurricane prepare list?


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/preparedness.asp
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331
1658. scott39
Does any one have a hurricane prepare list?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I believe it's the eyewall of a strong hurricane that typically does not have a lot of lightning. Otherwise, hurricanes are full of it.
I think it's the other way around. I have been through a few weak storms in Tampa and have only seen lightning within outmost rainbands. I also experienced a direct from category 3 Georges in La Romana, DR... That had absolutely no lightning at all until the eyewall. And even then it was very infrequent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS has significantly backed off on downward MJO. There were pinks and reds earlier.. now none.

Now look at the upward motion "retrograding" if you will back to our basin.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
GFS has significantly backed off on downward MJO. There were pinks and reds earlier.. now none.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
1654. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, that is where it is focused right now, and there's really nowhere else for it to go this summer and fall.
I dont understand everything, but I understand that. What I dont understand is, some bloggers on here that seem to know what thier talking about, but cant grasp that concept.---Heat has to be released from the Earth and its the Atlantics turn this year! Now is the time to gear up for preperation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1653. Levi32
Quoting portcharlotte:

Great Job Levi!




Thank you :)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out 'til later.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

Great Job Levi!


Quoting Levi32:
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, July 25th, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:








UKMET seems to be right on the money.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1650. unf97
Good afternoon everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't even know they were in the area. Dear son is stationed at Keesler for the foreseeable future (yes, we Marines have an Air Force WEATHER MAN in our future ~ couldn't be more damn tickled) ~ I would have driven over and made him stand in line holding treasures! {8^P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1645. help4u
Storm W when do you think the season will really take off?Could we have anything major before August 10 or will it start a week or 2 later?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh dear, censored already
wtd
lmbo


well, there may be global warming, but it certainly is cold around my house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1640. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Check out his blog video, it explains it very well.
Thanks, I didnt see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Link
Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


La nina going to become very strong by the heart of hurricane season,same with the MJO.

Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks Levi!

I think a strong SE ridge will be present for most of the season, and this would favor tracks through the Caribbean or towards Florida and into the Gulf.
(Tooken from Levi's tropical tidbit.)

Tracks may be similar to 05.Just my prediction...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1637. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi, Will the heat and energy be mostly in the Atlantic for the rest of the season,regardless of how many storms we have?


Yes, that is where it is focused right now, and there's really nowhere else for it to go this summer and fall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1636. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good afternoon Storm!

Can I have the link to that? I have the CPC link but not that one.


Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting scott39:
Levi, Will the heat and energy be mostly in the Atlantic for the rest of the season,regardless of how many storms we have?
Check out his blog video, it explains it very well.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1634. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Of note is how far north the high is centered though, up near 50N. That's way up there. The secondary center forecasted by the GFS looks to set up as a weaker ridge centered near 60W and farther south, a favorable pattern for the Atlantic overall. Even a dry eastern Atlantic is just more bad news for us in the United States and the Caribbean.
Levi, Will the heat and energy be mostly in the Atlantic for the rest of the season,regardless of how many storms we have?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon Storm!

Can I have the link to that? I have the CPC link but not that one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1632. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


It's faltering! Still can't bust right through Octant 3....should see it swing right back where it came from yet again in the next couple weeks.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

Viewing: 1681 - 1631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.