Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
They must have done it just to get this invest list over with and start off fresh for when the season goes nuts in 8 days or so.


That puts us at AUG 3.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Where'd you get that microwave imagey?


You have to look at NRL Monterey old school. CIMSS also has some interesting graphics on pouches when looked at that way also.
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They must have done it just to get this invest list over with and start off fresh for when the season goes nuts in 8 days or so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting KerryInNOLA:


A rare photo of StormW back in his days as a Navy Weatherman (:


Hmmm. Brilliant AND goodlookin'.... :)
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Wait...is it TD #3 or TD #4? lol
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1712. MiamiHurricanes09

In a case like this you need to look at V (KT) LAND, as the SHIPS V (KT) NO LAND does not account for land interaction.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, unless they tag it TD #4


NHC would have to be near deathly bored to do so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Your kidding me.. Invest 99L is deep inland over Mexico. Expect a deactivation before the days end.



lol, unless they tag it TD #3
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1723. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Waiting to see if NRL Monterey is going to put up a HTML website for pouch tracking.




Where'd you get that microwave imagey?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Your kidding me.. Invest 99L is deep inland over Mexico. Expect a deactivation before the days end.

LOL, the sad thing is that they actually designated it. 2 things could have happened:

1. The NHC is bored out of their minds.
2. Someone went crazy...really crazy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1721. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
WHXX01 KWBC 251812
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 0600 100726 1800 100727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 98.3W 21.7N 99.7W 22.3N 101.2W 22.9N 102.7W
BAMD 21.2N 98.3W 21.2N 99.5W 21.2N 100.6W 21.2N 101.9W
BAMM 21.2N 98.3W 21.6N 99.6W 21.9N 100.8W 22.2N 102.2W
LBAR 21.2N 98.3W 21.4N 99.3W 22.0N 101.0W 22.7N 103.0W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100727 1800 100728 1800 100729 1800 100730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 104.2W 24.5N 106.8W 25.6N 109.5W 26.6N 111.7W
BAMD 21.5N 103.2W 22.1N 106.0W 23.2N 109.2W 24.3N 112.2W
BAMM 22.8N 103.6W 23.9N 106.2W 25.1N 109.0W 26.1N 111.3W
LBAR 23.6N 105.2W 26.0N 109.4W 29.0N 113.0W 32.4N 114.3W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 97.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Your kidding me.. Invest 99L is deep inland over Mexico. Expect a deactivation before the days end.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting Drakoen:
Very nice to see that the Pouch tracking Website is working with the University of Wisconsin to give us cimss graphic on areas of interest including satellite imagery and animations of the eastern Atlantic.


Waiting to see if NRL Monterey is going to put up a HTML website for pouch tracking.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless it starts moving towards the east it has no chance of development in the Atlantic.

Would be nice for it to Race off to the east so it can develop and to make downcasters back off. Would also be good so Mexico can get rid of those rains.
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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC must be bored
They must be.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
From My Blog:

Atlantic Basin Predictions for 2010:

Depressions: 23

Named Storms: 16-21

Hurricanes: 9-13

Major Hurricanes: 4-7

Cat. 5's: 2-4
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SHIPS intensifies 99L over land *laughs*.

AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 0, 212N, 983W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 12, 216N, 996W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 24, 219N, 1008W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 36, 222N, 1022W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 48, 228N, 1036W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 60, 233N, 1049W, 53, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 72, 239N, 1062W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 84, 245N, 1075W, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 96, 251N, 1090W, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 108, 256N, 1102W, 59, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, SHIP, 120, 261N, 1113W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

At least the LGEM keeps it with winds less than 30 knots while it's inland.

AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 0, 212N, 983W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 12, 216N, 996W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 24, 219N, 1008W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 36, 222N, 1022W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 48, 228N, 1036W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 60, 233N, 1049W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 72, 239N, 1062W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 84, 245N, 1075W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 96, 251N, 1090W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 108, 256N, 1102W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072518, 03, LGEM, 120, 261N, 1113W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
ahhhh,I see pretty impressive,worthy of invest status!!!..its already at 1009mb!!!

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Did they not issue evacs for for Floyd in 1999?


They did. Like unf said, all of the interstates in FL were a nightmare. It happened again 5 years later with Frances. If you wanted to leave South FL and go out-of-state, you'd be waiting until the next day before you were out of FL.
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1709. Drakoen
NHC must be bored
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looks GREAT for an inland Invest though.
Unless it starts moving towards the east it has no chance of development in the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1707. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/99/L
MARK
21.2N/98.3W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Invest 99L designated...inland. LOL.

Looks GREAT for an inland Invest though.
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Invest 99L designated...inland. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


Why? Running models on something that is inland.


Ya got me, must really be bored or wanted confirmation from models on possible track. Does not compute........
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???????isn't 99L the reminants of 98L???????
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Quoting Drakoen:


Why? Running models on something that is inland.

It would be interesting for it to move NE, so it can leave that part of Mexico alone and develop.
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1700. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
99L.INVEST

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Initiate an invest over land


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1698. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 99 2010072518 BEST 0 212N 983W 20 1013 DB


Why? Running models on something that is inland.
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AL 99 2010072518 BEST 0 212N 983W 20 1013 DB
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*New Forecast*
WeatherNerd's Forecast:
Tropical Storms: 16-19
Hurricanes: 10-13
Major Hurricanes: 5-8
Category 5s: 1-3
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Quoting StormW:
Excerpt from Joe Bastardi. I know some of you don't like him...but he's RIGHT ON with this:

1) we have already had 2 impact storms, one a minimal tropical storm the other a major hurricane that caused tropical storm conditions. They are scored as tropical storms, one weak, one with strong effects. In addition we had a depression which is also scored as it went into south Texas. Alex did not, in my opinion, give hurricane conditions to south Texas, so it is not scored as a hurricane. Still 3 classified systems and 3 impacts. One cant help but notice how systems blow up further west, an ominous sign for the heart of the season.

2) The MJO is doing as forecasted. It comes out into the octants for development, then runs back into the "Guinea Pig Igloo" as I call it ( my 2 guinea pigs have an igloo they hide in when they are not eating or drinking) But we dont see it wandering into octants 5-7, where it spent much of last year. I explained this many times, it has to do with the upward motion being caused by the ocean, the lack of it in the Pacific because of the rapid cooling, the enhanced around the atlantic and Mexico.

3) The upper levels are rapidly improving for development with the large scale shearing gone from the playing field and being replaced by smaller, westward moving closed lows with ridging behind. Bonnies problem was she was too close to the low and the TPC track west was impossible for development.. I explained all this before hand when people were hyping it. But we are rapidly improving to the classic hurricane bursting outflow pattern.

4) now, to the neh sayers, yes you could be right, but I dont think so. Why? part of the reason we have seen less than 2005 and 2008 is because its warmer overall. This distorts upward motion so it cant focus as much. Unfortunately, even with a warmer than normal Aug-Oct in the works, it will cool over Mexico and the US which means the focus of upward motion will shift to the still warming oceans. With the Pacific crashing as the La Nina goes bonkers, it means the atlantic is going to burst. So for those of you that count total storms, 1) you are missing the boat, the key is impact and 2) I strongly disagree with "giving up" on this season or "spiking the ball" thinking the lower numbers will win. There should be a naming frenzy this year and between Aug 15 and Oct 15, very few days without a named storm on the map.

All this bodes bad for the US coastline, given the 500 mb forecast of ridging in the lakes and northeast. Remember in the 07 reversal that ridge was further south. The big impact seasons have the center of the positive anomaly north of 40 north, where it will be this year.


Yes indeed, particularly the distortion of upward motion by the widespread warmth. Mentioned the bundling of energy a while back and became a "bundle caster" LOL. Anyway, the energy must be able to focus to have development and this is a good explanation of the lack there of.
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Quoting StormW:
REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS


Thanks so much! This really helps to understand! Now if I could figure out how to post my picture...
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Quoting help4u:
Joe Bastardi has nailed the storms this season.


Track wise. Yes
Number of storms....NO
He forecasted at least 4 named storms to form this month.
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Excessive Heat Warning
Statement as of 2:06 PM EDT on July 25, 2010


... Excessive heat warning in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued an
excessive heat warning... which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this
evening. The heat advisory is no longer in effect.

It will be dangerously hot and extremely uncomfortable this
afternoon. Heat indices will reach up to 112 degrees for several
hours. The duration of this heat wave... day 5 and counting... will
make our bodies much more susceptible to serious heat illnesses.

All protective measures should be taken today in an effort to
avoid heat exhaustion or heat stroke. If you must venture away
from your air-conditioned room... be sure to remain out of the
direct sunshine.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of
fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the
sunshine... and check up on relatives... neighbors and the elderly.
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1690. unf97
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Did they not issue evacs for for Floyd in 1999?


It very well could be. T.S. Bonnie may serve as a harbinger of things to come as we approach the meat of hurricane season. Thankfully Bonnie was not a major tropical cyclone, but the pattern shaping up the next couple of months for me doesn't bode well not only for the Florida but the Gulf Coast as well. There are going to be several threats unfortunately by significant tropical cyclones in the stated areas I mentioned.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1689. help4u
Joe Bastardi has nailed the storms this season.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's going to be a nasty year for the eastern Florida coast. I might experience my first evacuation.

Although this is off-topic, can you believe the NERVE of some people downcasting the season after we started off with this?!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF
TUXPAN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
NNNN

A Very quite last week of July, nothing in the horizon.!! Lets see what August, September, the "most active months will bring"!!
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1686. unf97
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Did they not issue evacs for for Floyd in 1999?


yes. I remembered that . As a matter of fact evacuations were called for most of the Florida East coast, which caused massive traffic jams on Interstates 95, 10, and 75. It was a nightmare.

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Storm, Patrap: In Property and Casualty insurance, Cat Modeling (short term and long term) are used to help determine rates by insurance companies and reinsurers. On the claims management side, we use shorter term modeling to determine the number of adjusters to deploy to areas that will be affected by a hurricane or other weather related event. What we do is to figure out what the PIF (policies in force) counts are in certain areas. Statistical models are laid over the PIF Counts (drilled down to individual location). Projected wind speeds, storm surge, etc are taken into account. We then make assumptions (based on the collected data) as to what percentage of policyholders will file claims. Based on these assumptions we send adjusters out (after the hurricane, but before most claims are filed). If we do a good job, we don't over-deploy or under deploy. If we over shoot, adjusters don't make enough to pay for their hotel expenses, etc. If we under-deploy, all the policyholders scream. I was involved in managing over 180,000 losses during 2005. I used the input here as much as the modeling data supplied by reinsurers.

Thanks again.
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1683. robj144
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Hello. I'm DeepSouthUS (i joined yesterday night), and I promise not to post irrelevant or untrue (false) assumptions on this hurricane season.

Now, while fallinstorms rants and bickers about a very inactive hurricane season, which I know is false, I forecast that we will get somewhere between Matthew and Tomas when the season ends November 30. I also forecast the following:

Probability of a season with 7-12 storms: <1%
Probability of a season with 13-18 storms: about 83%
Probability of a season with 20 or more storms: approximately 27%.

These forecasts are just my opinion. Let's see what this season has to offer.


So there's a 110% chance of there being greater than 7 storms this year? :)
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1681. Drakoen
Very nice to see that the Pouch tracking Website is working with the University of Wisconsin to give us cimss graphic on areas of interest including satellite imagery and animations of the eastern Atlantic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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