Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


It's possible it may be trying to, however, upper level winds are out of the NW, and mid level shear is about 15 kts. Waiting for the 18Z run of the shear forecast to see if things may change.


On visible, it actually appears to have an anticyclone over at least the northeastern/eastern part of the system.
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Let's see: Let's suppose 10 seconds average per comment so that's 1,456,740,000 seconds.

1,456,740,000 sec * (1 min/60 sec) = 2,427,900 min

2,427,900 min * (1 hr/60 min) = 40,465 hr

40,465 hr * (1 day/24 hr) = 1686 days, 1 hour

That's over four and one-half years of your life posting on this blog! ... LOL




VERY SAD!! LOL
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3579. xcool
MississippiWx


Link

go here..
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3578. unf97
NHC has analyzed a surface trough moving through the Yucatan per TWD at 2 p.m.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM W CUBA
TO THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS SCENARIO IS
KEEPING THE GULF RATHER ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
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Quoting xcool:
Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer:


Where is that observation?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
This is how many I have....

145,674,000 comments in all blogs.
Let's see: Let's suppose 10 seconds average per comment so that's 1,456,740,000 seconds.

1,456,740,000 sec * (1 min/60 sec) = 2,427,900 min

2,427,900 min * (1 hr/60 min) = 40,465 hr

40,465 hr * (1 day/24 hr) = 1686 days, 1 hour

That's over four and one-half years of your life posting on this blog! ... LOL
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1316
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Democaster LOL


It was a hilarious video, not sure why it got pulled while music videos are allowed to stay, but I'm not complaining, I like the music vids, and post 'em myself upon occasion.
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3572. xcool
Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer:




Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 14.0 mphfrom the SE
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph
Progreso, Mexico
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here,,,haha watch i bet we get two storms in aug...hahahahahaha..


I'll take that bet. I bet bet we get more than two. Now what are we betting?
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Storm, what do you think about the area over the Yucatan. From what I've seen, it's still purely mid-level, but it's trying to get to the surface it appears.
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****Bolded Selections were modified by me****

MY GUESTIMATE ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 2010 SEASON:

We are nearing the end of July, with already having two weaker type storms; this puts us on the above average side of climatology (technically speaking). Although, with all the 2010 pre hype, it appears slow and boring, althogh boring is good to most during any storm season.

I put the odds of squeeking out one more weaker type storm in July at 40%, something probably close to home.

August, especially beginning after the 7th, should be a lot less "boring". We will easily see more than one named system at a time that is being tracked. We definately will see a lot more red circles from the NHC; seems mom through away the other colors. I expect no less than six named storms in August, and could be as high as seven or eight(my guess 7). This would put us at eight to ten named storms by the end of August at a minimum.
September will be, and usually is the month to watch and perhaps dread during a storm season, this year should be especially painful to some in the U.S.. I anticipate no less than seven named storms during September, where there could be three storms going at once at some point. The named storm total I guess would be seven but could be as high as nine. This puts us at between 13 and 16 named storms by the end of September 2010.

October is usually the time during most seasons where things really begin to unwind storm wise. I expect this year to NOT follow suite. I see no less than four named storms forming in October 2010, and feel we could easily see five named storms. By this time all those predicting high numbers will be saying "I told you so" those predicting or changing their predictions to numbers under 15 will slither back into their holes. By the end of October we will have seen between 18 and 22 storms.

November should quiet down a lot, however one or two storms could still pop up; I expect one.

December is always much quieter in the tropics, and after our 2010 season, quietness will be welcome; as far as totals for December, possibly one storm, I guess Zero.

This puts us at between 19 and 23 storms for the 2010 storm season. My guess, 20 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 5 intense Hurricanes.

To guess regarding landfall locations, is a laughing matter; my cone covers all of North America, Central America, and Some of South America, and parts of Europe. But seriously, do to early season indications I would guess all points south of a line from Upper Texas Coast to North Georgia Coast need to be extra prepared to protect life and property this year.
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3567. Patrap

..."Go Ahead Blogger,,your on the AIR"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
3565. angiest
Quoting rainraingoaway:


Thanks Storm! Just looks interesting.


Where was that post? I don't see it...
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Quoting Patrap:


.."Tangerine,Tangerine, Living reflection of a dream"..






Brother, you are OD'ing on Zep today...what a way to go
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3562. xcool
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Quoting breald:


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?


Yes, same thing. A ridge placement similar to 2005 is more than likely going to be the setup in the heart of the season. If you recall, a few storms did sneak up the East Coast that year, but didn't amount to much in the NE.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is what I got.

You have posted 10474 comments in all blogs.


We need a new hobby!
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I win
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3557. angiest
Quoting breald:


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?


Yes, more completely referred to as a ridge of high pressure.
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Daytime heating is actually helping the system over the Yucatan as the heat destabilizes the surface, causing thunderstorms to grow. The friction is also helping the storm develop a better circulation. A 1010mb pressure about 50 miles away from the "center" isn't too shabby either.
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This is how many I have....

145,674,000 comments in all blogs.
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Quoting StormW:


ULL north of there, and a surface trof over the Peninsula.


Thanks Storm! Just looks interesting.
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3553. xcool
hmmm mid level circulation
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Quoting mikatnight:


Talk about classic...



Oh, now I've gone and done it again.


Democaster LOL
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Convection on the wane over the Yucatan
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thanx Nitty.

I'm closing in on 2300 comments1


This is what I got.

You have posted 10474 comments in all blogs.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
3549. breald
Quoting MississippiWx:


No no no. I just said MOST of the year. The ridge tends to break down at times because of trofs and if a hurricane were to time it just right, it could sneak up the Eastern Seaboard without weakening too much due to all of the warm water. Of course, shear would probably increase due to a trof, but you never know.


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?
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3548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Surface obs don't support anything at the surface as winds in Campeche, MX are out of the east when they should be out of the north or northeast if a surface circulation were present. I did, however, find it interesting that the pressure is 1010mb there and it's not even where a possible low level center might be forming.
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Thanx Nitty.

I'm closing in on 2300 comments1
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3545. Squid28
Geeeez, I guess I am going to have to start posting more 198, I mean 109 comments since I joined during the first year of the good dr's blog.
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Quoting StormW:
Evening!


Evening storm! Check out post 3430.. what'cha think?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
Lots o' moisture in the GOMEX for a downward MJO.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
Savannah, Georgia (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 4 min 59 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
101 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 112 °F



Air temp a little higher, but lower dewpoints mean it won't hit 125F Heat Index again today- that was torture. Still too darn hot, though, even for a native...

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YAY ME BOO downcaster
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yup the good O me is forcasting 10 name storm for AUG
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here


Go away
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3537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting whs2012:


Do you think the NHC will designate him an invest once he gets into the GOM?


They'll prolly wait untill its inland laike they did with 99L.
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Quoting breald:


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.


Never say never....... until the end of the season......
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Quoting breald:


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.


No no no. I just said MOST of the year. The ridge tends to break down at times because of trofs and if a hurricane were to time it just right, it could sneak up the Eastern Seaboard without weakening too much due to all of the warm water. Of course, shear would probably increase due to a trof, but you never know.
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3533. Patrap


.."Tangerine,Tangerine, Living reflection of a dream"..




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
am watching a wave at 10N 35W

Link
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok I give up...Where's the "Directory Page"?
"member blogs"
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.