Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1881. Hurricanes12
9:12 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Do they expect the "land" invest to maybe go back out over the water?


I was reading on how the NHC classifies Invest and even if the Invest wont develop, they do this for other purposes such as research. On visible, it looks like a hefty Invest.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
1880. TexasHurricane
9:10 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Do they expect the "land" invest to maybe go back out over the water?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1878. mfaria101
9:07 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
It was getting nasty just as I was leaving. Hurricane Gloria was approaching when caught a flight out of Newark to go to work.

Funny Gloria was when I became fascinated by hurricanes, I was in the fire dept. then and we were out for about 2 days in the middle of it, between evac. of sea bright and hundreds of wires down it was a real eye opener about emergency response to weather
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1877. RickWPB
9:05 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
BP is supposed to be getting back on site today. I noticed something that doesn't look too good on ROV-1 camera. Is this freezing or crystallized oil?

Live feed from ROV 1
Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 340
1876. hydrus
9:04 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101:


Its been dry for weeks, all the storms moved north or south of us, I literally just sat with a glass of wine and a cigar through a beautiful little boomer, really welcome
It was getting nasty just as I was leaving. Hurricane Gloria was approaching when caught a flight out of Newark to go to work. Glad you finally got some rain..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
1875. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting thewindman:
Such a dud season they actually have an ON LAND INVEST!!! Wow NOAA is scraping the bottom now hoping for something to salvage their overhyped season
better than scraping you from the bottom of some hurricane flooded impact zone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
1874. xcool
9:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
99L .signs active season is come
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1873. xcool
9:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
StormW.HEY did YOU read joe-b about mjo..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1872. Hurricanes12
8:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Why was Invest 99L deemed an Invest if it's already inland and had 0%? Did they anticipate it moving into the BOC or GOM?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
1871. xcool
8:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
lol 99L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1869. OGal
8:54 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
What a good point Levi. I thought the same thing. A land invest...hummm.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
1867. breald
8:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


A and C in recent decades/years have been hit.

B (The Carolinas)havent recieved a hurricane in a while

D High wont allow it and Least risk.


Doesn't the high move? I was told it does not stay in one place.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1865. hurricane556
8:52 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
huge plume of moisture pushing out all of the dry air as it moves west across the atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1864. OracleDeAtlantis
8:51 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting StormW:
This thing just keeps skyrocketing:





I love being educated by this brain we have here. He makes me look things up.

Southern Oscillation

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the pressure at Tahiti is relatively low compared to Darwin.

Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because deep convection over the warm water acts to transport air. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
1863. Levi32
8:49 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Odd....they actually designated the disturbance over Mexico an Invest? Shouldn't that have been done 2 days ago when it was over water?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1862. stillwaiting
8:48 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
we need a new blog,this ones starting to smell a bit musty;)
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1861. thewindman
8:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Such a dud season they actually have an ON LAND INVEST!!! Wow NOAA is scraping the bottom now hoping for something to salvage their overhyped season
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1860. Levi32
8:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
Tracks of Alex/TD2 and Bonnie were all dictated by the SE ridge that has been firmly in place since early JUL. that pattern is expected to change for AUG/SEP with the ridge more favored over Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic....which would protect the East Coast somewhat, but open up the N. Gulf and FL for opportunity. ENSO 3.4 down to -1.25 C in the daily and SOI strongly positive still supports ridge more in the Ohio Valley/ Mid Atlantic. Things should start rolling in around 2 weeks or so.
Quoting StormW:


?????
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Huh?


It does....but pretty far to the north this year which probably opens up the SE coast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1859. stormlvr
8:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting unf97:


So far indeed that is the current pattern with unusually strong High pressure that has been parked over the Southern CONUS for much of July. Sure should this type of pattern continue then the pattern we have currently will definitely keep everyone in the Carribean and GOM on high alert.

This pattern though will shift and we will get back into the typical scenario in the Tropical Atlantic where the orientation of the A/B ridge will eventually move cyclones more west-west/northwest. Also, we will begin to see more weaknesses in the western extension of the ridge over the Eastern US and then all bets will be off when this set-up occurs.


I agree. The natural progression of the pattern as the seasons change should allow for an increased risk further north along the SE Coast while the risk remains high in the Gulf and Florida with the highest risk for the Northern Caribbean Islands.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
1858. blsealevel
8:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2010


can ya'll tell me what type of formation that is behind the ULL that is entering the GOM on water vapor. Thanks
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1856. mfaria101
8:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Toms River. Theres a name I have not heard in a while. I went there in 1985 to see relatives.


Its been dry for weeks, all the storms moved north or south of us, I literally just sat with a glass of wine and a cigar through a beautiful little boomer, really welcome
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1855. hydrus
8:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting mfaria101:
finally some much needed rain on toms river, long string of boomers and free water from the sky, I and my garden thank you
Toms River. Theres a name I have not heard in a while. I went there in 1985 to see relatives.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
1854. rmbjoe1954
8:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
StormW

What is the average rate of change from a positive NAO to a negative; that is, can this happen overnight or does it 'evolve'?
Thank you in advance.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015
1853. MiamiHurricanes09
8:37 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Oh...understand...well, kinda think we're in the positive with around a 1030-1032 high. For right now, anyway.
For now, might not last for long.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting StormW:


Ya lost me a little in your last sentence.
I'm just not liking what we are in (negative NAO, record SSTs, etc...)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting reedzone:
TORNADO WARNING
NYC103-252015-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0007.100725T1940Z-100725T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BAY
SHORE...OR NEAR BABYLON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CAPTREE STATE PARK...ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK...ISLIP...
RONKONKOMA...SAYVILLE...HOLBROOK...PATCHOGUE...DAVIS PARK AND
MASTIC BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 7335 4067 7326 4065 7320 4067 7306
4074 7288 4076 7291 4074 7293 4075 7301
4073 7303 4073 7313 4070 7314 4071 7323
4069 7326 4066 7341 4083 7338 4078 7280
4077 7279 4078 7271 4068 7299 4063 7318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 278DEG 42KT 4072 7327

$$

MALOIT

I used to live in Mastic Beach.. I hope my friends and family are indoors right now..

central and southern NJ getting hit now too.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
NJ and NY getting hammered right now, nice t-storms and better wind than Bonnie
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
Quoting ackee:
which area of the US do u think will be most at risk this seasons ?

A SE COAST
B EAST COAST
C GULF State
D NE COAST
With everything presented to me I'm split up between A and C.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1841. ackee
which area of the US do u think will be most at risk this seasons ?

A SE COAST
B EAST COAST
C GULF State
D NE COAST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1840. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ughhh, not what I like to hear.


Yeah I know. But unfortunately my fear is that the typical pattern set-up will eventually be evolving I think in the next couple of weeks.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting StormW:
Excerpt from the following:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance


Only the NAO is available back to 1851. U.S. hurricane landfalls tend to be more
abundant when the NAO is low and when Atlantic SST are warm.


The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall.
We are forecasted to remain with a negative NAO for the most part of the season along with record breaking SSTs. Not liking how this is going...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting unf97:


So far indeed that is the current pattern with unusually strong High pressure that has been parked over the Southern CONUS for much of July. Sure should this type of pattern continue then the pattern we have currently will definitely keep everyone in the Carribean and GOM on high alert.

This pattern though will shift and we will get back into the typical scenario in the Tropical Atlantic where the orientation of the A/B ridge will eventually move cyclones more west-west/northwest. Also, we will begin to see more weaknesses in the western extension of the ride over the Eastern US and then all bets will be off when this set-up occurs.
Ughhh, not what I like to hear.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting sammywammybamy:


So your saying South east florida not at high risk.


Unfortunatly on my side of things SFL is at above average risk of seeing tropical activity this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
finally some much needed rain on toms river, long string of boomers and free water from the sky, I and my garden thank you
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1834. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/99/L
MARK
21.1N/98.3W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
1833. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep.


So far indeed that is the current pattern with unusually strong High pressure that has been parked over the Southern CONUS for much of July. Sure should this type of pattern continue then the pattern we have currently will definitely keep everyone in the Carribean and GOM on high alert.

This pattern though will shift and we will get back into the typical scenario in the Tropical Atlantic where the orientation of the A/B ridge will eventually move cyclones more west-west/northwest. Also, we will begin to see more weaknesses in the western extension of the ridge over the Eastern US and then all bets will be off when this set-up occurs.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
I was in Baytown, Texas on Saturday for NHRA Texas Drag Racing. For those not familiar, Baytown is about 20 miles East of Houston.

There was only a very light breeze from the East, very little cloud cover but mostly clear, sunny and hot. Thank goodness for T.S. Bonnie and the light breeze or it would have been almost stifling hot sitting on those reflective aluminum bleachers that act like a solar mirror (or frying pan).

For the fashion conscious, Mohawks are definitely in style amongst the 6-14 year old crowd. This year, I noticed less lip, nose, eyelid and tongue jewelry, but an increased number of 1/2 finished tattoos. Every tattoo I saw was spelled correctly, which was a nice change from last year.

Anyway, Thank you T.S. Bonnie for saturating the New Orleans area and creating a slight breeze across S.E. Texas. It helped make the NHRA Drags bearable. The weather today is gorgeous too.

Also, I want to say a special thank you to Tropical Storm Alex, without whom I wouldn't have had several nice cucumbers and squash to harvest. The rains brought by Alex were a bonus.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.