Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


E. The state of Confusion.


Or E. All the above
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1930. 10Speed
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Fay took a Very Similar track in 2008.

South Florida Hasent Seen a Major in 5 years..

I belive we will get one soon.


I don't tend to go by time frames. Florida can and has gone many, many years without anything major before. Just because we haven't had a major in 5 years it doesn't mean we're due. It could be 15 or more. I do concede that we're in a period where the possibility is enhanced though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Power was out for 12 days. Made a Campfire in my Back Yard.

It was like camping except in your house.

No AC, No Power.

After 2005 my family bought a generator.. And its been sitting in my garage for 5 years.


Yeah a lot of people did that after 2005 lol. People hit by Rita, Katrina, Wilma, and Dennis immediately bought generators but haven't really used them yet. Exception would be Ike landfalled pretty close to where Rita did. Gustav landfalled like right in the middle of Katrina and Rita, not sure if it was big enough to cause Rita hit people or Katrina hit people to lose power.
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Quoting Levi32:


Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it.


Something tells me he will lol I dunno I just feel it.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Actually, this is even worse:

Savannah Hunter, Georgia (Airport)
Updated: 51 min 37 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
99 F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 82 F
Wind: 14 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 125 F


!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
which state will have the most tropical cyclones this year?
A. LOUISIANA
B. TEXAS
C. FLORIDA
D. N. CAROLINA


E. The state of Confusion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Statement as of 5:18 PM EDT on July 25, 2010

... Prolonged heat continues across the coastal Empire and
the low country...

The following are unofficial maximum heat index values through
515 PM EDT as observed by automated surface observation systems
/ASOS/... fire weather remote automated weather stations /RAWS/ and
National Weather Service supported observation sensors from across
southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia.

... Southeast South Carolina...
Bluffton... ... ... ... ... ... Beaufort County... . 117
Smoaks... ... ... ... ... ... ..Colleton County... . 117
Beaufort mcas /knbc/... ... Beaufort County... . 116
west Ashley... ... ... ... ... Charleston County.. 116
Goose Creek... ... ... ... ... Berkeley County... . 114
Hilton Head /khxd/... ... ..Beaufort County... . 114
Summerville /kdyb/... ... ..Dorchester County.. 113
Walterboro /krbw/... ... ... Colleton County... . 113
Moncks Corner /kmks/... ... Berkeley County... . 110
North Charleston /kchs/... Charleston County.. 109

... Southeast Georgia...
hunter aaf... ... ... ... ... .Chatham County... .. 118
Coffee Bluff... ... ... ... ..Chatham County... .. 117
Metter... ... ... ... ... ... ..Candler County... .. 115
midway... ... ... ... ... ... ..Liberty County... .. 114
Elim... ... ... ... ... ... ... .Long County... ... .. 114
Sapelo Island... ... ... ... .McIntosh County... . 111
Sylvania /Fire Dept/... ... Screven County... .. 111
Fort Stewart /klhw/... ... .Liberty County... .. 108
Statesboro /ktbr/... ... ... Bulloch County... .. 108
Savannah Airport... ... ... .Chatham County... .. 107



The station in bold is closest to me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport
Lat: 37.14 Lon: -76.5 Elev: 43
Last Update on Jul 25, 4:54 pm EDT

Fair

104 °F
(40 °C)
Humidity: 22 %
Wind Speed: W 17 G 28 MPH
Barometer: 29.80" (1007.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 58 °F (14 °C)
Heat Index: 104 °F (40 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

thanks god only 22% humidity...


Why is that dewpoint showing 58?...our dewpoints up near Richmond have been 66-70 the last few days...got to 106.7 here yesterday...and up 105.8 today ...everyone has been hiding inside...lol...heat index has fluctuated between 106-115 during the afternoons...miserable...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
E
Quoting victoria780:
Texas has had 2-tropical systems this year which put our annual rain rate above 7-inches for the year.Anything else this year can go elsewhere.Thank You



E. All the above.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Here's Hugo. Check out Lake Okeechobee for eye size reference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1919. aquak9
Rick- Thanks for the response. May I direct you to BeachFoxx's blog- she has been running it since the DamnRig caught on fire. She has many good links in her header.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1918. aquak9
well hiya unf. Trying to load Levi's video right now.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I am not sure why they designated this an invest, maybe they were bored lol
I agree, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it.


yea I am not sure why they designated this an invest, maybe they were bored lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1915. RickWPB
Quoting aquak9:
RickWPB- I don't think you're still here, but here's a link to all 12 cams:

Link

Most of the ships and ROV's left because of Bonnie; I see they are returning to the area. I think maybe that is methane hydrate buildup, but it does not LOOK like methane hydrate buildup.

Unfortunately we can not get a full swing-around of the cap right now to see how bad that buildup is. It's happened before and they used some kinda spray washer to clean it off.



Yes, I'm still here - and thanx.

I have that link of for all cameras, but for some reason my browser (Mozilla FF - just updated yesterday to 3.6.8) crashes when going there. If I go there, and quickly click 'stop', I can view a few of the cameras.

Hopefully this buildup is not going to be another setback... especially when we're FINALLY seeing a possible end in sight.
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1914. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you...

geeez am I on everyone's iggy?


Good afternoon aquak.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Hurricane Donna:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
which state will have the most tropical cyclones this year?
A. LOUISIANA
B. TEXAS
C. FLORIDA
D. N. CAROLINA



C. Florida, of course LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1910. aquak9
helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you...

geeez am I on everyone's iggy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW, thanks so much for the table showing average NAO.
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1908. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Bastardi will probally have a field day with this.


Nah lol. I don't think he'll mention it. Invests can be designated whenever so it's not a criteria thing....just odd, that's all. What's the point of running models on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Odd....they actually designated the disturbance over Mexico an Invest? Shouldn't that have been done 2 days ago when it was over water?


Bastardi will probally have a field day with this.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
better than scraping you from the bottom of some hurricane flooded impact zone


KOTG ignore him.. thewindman's not our brightest poster, probably one of the least imo.
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1903. RickWPB
Quoting unf97:
Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded:



1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2
2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2
3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3
3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3
4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4
5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4
6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4
7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3



I forgot about Donna having over a 100 nmi eye when it hit NY.

From the video posted above of Wilma in 2005 (by sammywammybamy), as soon as Wilma exited the coast the eye grew even bigger! I never knew that as I was pretty busy for the next week or so living here in West Palm Beach. Wilma was the worst I experienced since living here in West Palm Beach (1959).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
which area of the US do u think will be most at risk this seasons ?

A SE COAST
B EAST COAST
C GULF State
D NE COAST
Texas has had 2-tropical systems this year which put our annual rain rate above 7-inches for the year.Anything else this year can go elsewhere.Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unf97:



Yeah, Frances had a huge eye. What a troublemaker Frances was even here in Jax. I had wind gusts to near 60mph and lost power for 4 days due to that storm.


Lol all the way up here in Macon, GA we had a state of emergency declared because of the flooding she gave us in central GA. I specifically remember we got out of school for a week here. Didn't have anything that bad until Mothers Day Tornado Outbreak 08. I can only imagine the damage Frances caused where it actually landfalled..
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Evening Friends.......


Looks like the CMC, GFS, and the NGP all are pointing to the Cape Verde Storm at 144 hr.
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1898. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here is a radar loop of Frances making landfall in central Florida, you can see how large her eye is.




Yeah, Frances had a huge eye. What a troublemaker Frances was even here in Jax. I had sustained winds of 40mph constantly with wind gusts to near 60mph for a full 24 hours or so and lost power for 4 days due to that storm.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
look at a long loop of the invest 99l, and it looks like to me like maybe its stationary, and also the main convection seems to be just offshore.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Wilma





Gigantic eye.. Everglades City, Naples, Belle Glade, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach all got a taste of that eye. Miami, Fort Myers, and Fort Pierce were all very close, so they get honorable mentions :P
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1894. Patrap
BP CEO Tony Hayward To RESIGN Before Tuesday:

BP CEO Tony Hawyard, who's quickly become the public face of the Gulf Oil spill, will be stepping down within days, according to reports in the British press.

The move is expected to come in anticipation of the company's announcement of its first-half results on Tuesday. BP will announce that it has made approximately $10 billion this year, even while contending with the largest oil spill in history, the U.K.'s Telegraph reports. Here's Telegraph :

The chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward, is finalising the details of his imminent exit from BP this weekend as the oil giant prepares to make an announcement on the chief executive's future possibly within the next 48 hours.


After a weekend of detailed negotiations over Mr Hayward's severance package, it now appears almost certain that he will announce his departure ahead of BP's half year results on Tuesday.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1893. aquak9
RickWPB- I don't think you're still here, but here's a link to all 12 cams:

Link

Most of the ships and ROV's left because of Bonnie; I see they are returning to the area. I think maybe that is methane hydrate buildup, but it does not LOOK like methane hydrate buildup.

Unfortunately we can not get a full swing-around of the cap right now to see how bad that buildup is. It's happenend before and they used some kinda spray washer to clean it off.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1892. hydrus
Quoting mfaria101:

right down the street..but very built up now with retirement villages
I heard the whole coast has changed dramatically. In the early 70,s we would go to Ship Bottom, Long Beach Island and Surf City to party and some swimming for us kids. I hope to see it again some day.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
Quoting unf97:
Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded:



1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2
2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2
3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3
3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3
4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4
5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4
6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4
7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3

Here is a radar loop of Frances making landfall in central Florida, you can see how large her eye was.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting breald:


Doesn't the high move? I was told it does not stay in one place.
I have seen High Pressure Systems sit over Texas during the Summer for a long period of time. Looks like the East Coast is getting our Summer this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1889. unf97
Largest hurricane eyes upon U.S. Atlantic landfalls ever recorded:



1. 1960 (Donna) - 100 mi/87 nmi (Long Island, NY) at Cat 2
2. 2004 (Frances) - 69 mi/60 nmi (Sewall's Point, FL) at Cat 2
3. 2005 (Wilma) - 52 mi/45 nmi (Cape Romano, SW FL) at Cat 3
3. 2005 (Katrina) - 35 mi/30 nmi (Buras, LA) at Cat 3
4. 1989 (Hugo) - 32 mi/28 nmi (Bulls Bay, SC) at Cat 4
5. 1926 (Storm 6) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Coral Gables, FL) at Cat 4
6. 1928 (Storm 4) - 25 mi/22 nmi (Palm Beach Shores, FL) at Cat 4
7. 2004 (Jeanne) - 25 mi/30 nmi (South Hutchinson Island, FL) at Cat 3

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting hydrus:
My Grandparents lived in Waretown, near Forked River. They were in there 80,s back then and were not doing well. They lived right by Barnegat Bay, with flooded them very bad on several occasions.

right down the street..but very built up now with retirement villages
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1885. aquak9
Quoting RickWPB:
BP is supposed to be getting back on site today. I noticed something that doesn't look too good on ROV-1 camera. Is this freezing or crystallized oil?

Live feed from ROV 1


if you are still here, hold on a sec. I'm gonna go look at the other ROV's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1884. hydrus
Quoting mfaria101:

Funny Gloria was when I became fascinated by hurricanes, I was in the fire dept. then and we were out for about 2 days in the middle of it, between evac. of sea bright and hundreds of wires down it was a real eye opener about emergency response to weather
My Grandparents lived in Waretown, near Forked River. They were in there 80,s back then and were not doing well. They lived right by Barnegat Bay, with flooded them very bad on several occasions.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport
Lat: 37.14 Lon: -76.5 Elev: 43
Last Update on Jul 25, 4:54 pm EDT

Fair

104 °F
(40 °C)
Humidity: 22 %
Wind Speed: W 17 G 28 MPH
Barometer: 29.80" (1007.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 58 °F (14 °C)
Heat Index: 104 °F (40 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

thanks god only 22% humidity...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Do they expect the "land" invest to maybe go back out over the water?


I was reading on how the NHC classifies Invest and even if the Invest wont develop, they do this for other purposes such as research. On visible, it looks like a hefty Invest.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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