Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
I heard the whole coast has changed dramatically. In the early 70,s we would go to Ship Bottom, Long Beach Island and Surf City to party and some swimming for us kids. I hope to see it again some day.

Still beautiful, but I bet you wont recognize half of it.
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Good luck Bordonaro at least you got a heads up. For what it's worth I believe you'll be alright the strides they have made in medicine are truly amazing.Just take it easy and develop a positive attitude.
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Welcome to the front side of 50 Bord. Had a close friend go thru the same surgery about a year ago, only they said he was 85% blocked. He came thru just fine. I think they turned his odometer back about 20 years with the procedure. Positive thoughts headed your way...

Thanks, hydrocodone and low dosage of xanax are my new friends!! Oh, I must not forget a beta blocker, a calcium channel blocker and a ace inhibitor to control my blood pressure.
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1978. breald
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks a million. I am feeling human again after feeling dizzy for 15 days.


Best of luck.
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Quoting ElConando:


That is according to the current pattern. If the pattern shifted to the way it was in the mid to late 19th century, Savannah would be hit more often. I remember edit (YOU) posting something about that as well.


lol, yea I have noted that before. I just hope the pattern doesn't change.

BTW, the last hurricane landfall, Category 1 or higher, in Savannah or Georgia will be 31 years ago this season... way overdue.
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1975. oakland
Excerpt from report written by Ed Rappaport on Feb. 7, 2005

Andrew was a small and ferocious Cape Verde hurricane that wrought unprecedented economic devastation along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and south-central Louisiana. Damage in the United States is estimated to be near 25 billion, making Andrew the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history1. The tropical cyclone struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a category 4 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew2. The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the destruction caused by this hurricane.


Addendum to NHC report on Andrew written by Ed Rappaport Feb. 7, 2005
In their 2004 paper, Landsea et al. (Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85 (11), 1699-1712 document a reanalysis of the intensity of Hurricane Andrew. Their paper discusses the reasons for the reanalysis, the process used, supporting references, and the resulting changes to the "Best Track" estimates of the hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. In particular, Hurricane Andrew is now indicated to have made landfall on the lower Florida east coast with Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The revised best track table for Hurricane Andrew appears below.


Go to this website to see the full report:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew_add.html

Sorry I don't know how to post links here.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!
Glad to here you feeling better.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1957. Hope all goes well :)
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Quoting unf97:


Bordonaro I was wondering what had happened to you. I hadn't seen you on the blog in quite some time and now we know why. I certainly wish for a speedy recovery for you. In my thoughts and prayers definitely!

Thanks a million. I am feeling human again after feeling dizzy for 15 days.
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1969. aquak9
Yo Bo!!! Prayers UP for you and the family, man! They must be worried sick.

You'd better get one of'm to learn how to sign on here, so they can tell us how you're doing.
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Quoting IKE:


Hope you get to feeling better. Glad they caught it in time.

Me too. I watched Bonnie go pfft, and watched CNN/FOX and drove my DR's and nurses crazy!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!
Welcome to the front side of 50 Bord. Had a close friend go thru the same surgery about a year ago, only they said he was 85% blocked. He came thru just fine. I think they turned his odometer back about 20 years with the procedure. Positive thoughts headed your way...
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All my thoughts and prayers Bordonaro. I am sure you will come through this in great shape and join us shortly to follow what promises to be a busy season.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
1965. aquak9
hi gambler!

Hey Ike? We're gonna recall those gauges so give it up.

Man we sell like 10-14 of those a week, sometimes more. But we've got the best price on the net, and a discount if you sign up for CoCoRAHS.
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1964. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!


Hope you get to feeling better. Glad they caught it in time.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1963. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!


Bordonaro I was wondering what had happened to you. I hadn't seen you on the blog in quite some time and now we know why. I certainly wish for a speedy recovery for you. In my thoughts and prayers definitely!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh ok, thanks. Guess we aren't due for one until 2025.


According to the chart if we don't get hit with a cat 1 this season, we will be overdue for one. LOL!
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Good evening water puppy
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1960. aquak9
RickWPB- if you are STILL here, they are using the pressure sprayer right now to clean it off.

Pretty cool to watch.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


500 years is just fine with me...


That is according to the current pattern. If the pattern shifted to the way it was in the mid to late 19th century, Savannah would be hit more often. I remember edit (YOU) posting something about that as well.
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Quoting ElConando:


Andrew was reevaluated in 2002 to have struck S Fla as a Cat 5.

From Wikipedia

In 2002, as part of an ongoing review of historical hurricane records, National Hurricane Center experts concluded that Andrew had sustained winds of 165 miles per hour (266 km/h) briefly before and during landfall, making it a Category 5.

Oh ok, thanks. Guess we aren't due for one until 2025.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!
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Afternoon everyone. I'm sure the bustness of Bonnie has already been overly discussed but from Navarre Beach FL, nothing, nada, zip, a nice day on the water actually...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not according to this.


The description there didn't even acknowledge Andrew's first Category 5 status.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
ElConan: That is a great reference on hurricanes. Thanks. Let's call the next "big boy" hurrican "O'Brien".
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Miami does not need a category 5 hurricane. When Katrina passed by as a weak cat. 1, Miami was damaged alot!
No we do not! Bonnie is enough for me, a good rain and a lil' bit of wind.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not according to this.


again the NHC officially classifies Andrew as a Category 5 landfall in S Florida

Andrew is one of only 3 hurricanes to make landfall in the US at CAT 5 intensity
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5 (since record keeping started in 1856), Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4.


Andrew was reevaluated in 2002 to have struck S Fla as a Cat 5.

From Wikipedia

In 2002, as part of an ongoing review of historical hurricane records, National Hurricane Center experts concluded that Andrew had sustained winds of 165 miles per hour (266 km/h) briefly before and during landfall, making it a Category 5.

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Quoting GBguy88:


In a post-analysis around a decade later.
I didn't know that. Do you have the link that states that?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5, Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4.


Miami does not need a category 5 hurricane. When Katrina passed by as a weak cat. 1, Miami was damaged alot!
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Where has the year gone? Only 5 months til Christmas. Hurricane season will be over before you know it.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida
Not according to this.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting GBguy88:


In a post-analysis around a decade later.


yea but the winds were verified
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1945. GBguy88
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida


In a post-analysis around a decade later.
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Quoting ElConando:


Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla.











500 years is just fine with me...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5, Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4.


Andrew was categorized as a Category 5 when it made landfall in South Florida
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Downtown Miami:

78.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Where Levi lives (Homer, Alaska):

57 °F
Mostly Cloudy


I'll stick with 78, 57 still a bit too cold for my bones :P.
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Quoting ElConando:


Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla.









I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5 (since record keeping started in 1856), Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ElConando:
Aventura, Fla

78.5 °F
Light Rain

Sorry for those who are in saunas right now.
Downtown Miami:

78.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy

Where Levi lives (Homer, Alaska):

57 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Yea, that 82F dewpoint will do it every time. :/


I bet! Dewpoint of 72F here. Just looked at your Excessive Heat Warning. 110-117 heat indices was the forecast? I think you need an entire new warning for 125+ cause that's just insane.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting 10Speed:


I don't tend to go by time periods. Florida can and has gone many, many years without anything major before. Just because we haven't had a major in 5 years it doesn't mean we're due. It could be 15 or more. I do concede that we're in a period where the possibility is enhanced though.


Return periods For Hurricanes Cat 1-5 the South East and Fla.









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1937. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
helloOOOooo! RickWPB, I did answer you...

geeez am I on everyone's iggy?


My rain gauge is getting another workout today. I've had .88 inches of rain today.

Total for July now 9.86 inches of rain without a tropical storm or cat 10 cane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1936. RickWPB
Quoting aquak9:
Rick- Thanks for the response. May I direct you to BeachFoxx's blog- she has been running it since the DamnRig caught on fire. She has many good links in her header.


Thanks. Bookmarked.
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look at the loop, anyone see something just offshore of mexico????
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


YIKES!! On weather.gov when I typed in savannah it gave me a heat index of 126!

Here in Macon it's at a nice cool 105 lol.


Yea, that 82F dewpoint will do it every time. :/
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
Actually, this is even worse:

Savannah Hunter, Georgia (Airport)
Updated: 51 min 37 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
99 �F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 82 �F
Wind: 14 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 125 �F


!!!


YIKES!! On weather.gov when I typed in savannah it gave me a heat index of 126!

Here in Macon it's at a nice cool 105 lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Aventura, Fla

78.5 °F
Light Rain

Sorry for those who are in saunas right now.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


E. The state of Confusion.


Or E. All the above
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.