Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, they actually make an incision in my neck, clamp off the artery, open it up, clean it out and re-sew up my neck. Thankfully on 5MM is blocked, but I will have a nice 1 to 2 inch scar on my neck.

I am not sure if I will be running a 20 mile race, maybe a nice 2 mile walk, without running out of breath!
Remember, pain goes away and chicks dig scars (even if you're married to them or they are your daughters). Machines, like the human body, operate much more effeciently when the pipes aren't blocked. You will a. feel a MAJOR difference and b. lose about 10 of those 12 or so pills they have you on. Again, welcome to the front side of 50...it only gets worse from here...LOL (except for those that get re-plumbed, like you...double LOL!!)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its probably going to be a big massive spiral with absolutely NO convection identical to Bonnie. That's why the ECMWF isn't showing it.
Likely. The dry stable air just suppresses that convection to a point that all you see is a swirl. Then when it gets into a moist environment it ramps up. Bonnie did the same thing, the only exception this time is that Bonnie went north of the Caribbean islands, this one will likely go south of them and in through the Caribbean. Gonna be an interesting lil' guy to track and watch.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
That wave in in post 1985, is the 4th wave this month with a vigorous low level circulation void of significant deep convection due to the dry and stable airmass they were embedded.

The others included a wave that emerged around July 17-18



The wave that became 97L (far right)



and a wave near 40W
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Quoting btwntx08:
18z gfs 228 hrs out lol shows a cv storm??


Yessir.. a CV storm. Starts hinting at it earlier.. could be something to watch.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
2027. xcool
African wave




40w to




500mb
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2026. oakland
Quoting Snowlover123:
Good evening!

I have a favor to ask you all here,

I tried to access the Accuweather.com forums, and I couldn't. (forums.accuweather.com) Could someone check the Climate Change forum and look in "Florida Winters getting more extreme" and look for my name (Snowlover123) and see if it says "removed member" next to my name? I would sincerely appreciate it.

-Snowlover123


This is the message I got when searching. I hope this helps.

Unfortunately your search didn't return any results.
Try broadening the search parameters by searching by different keywords or altering the format of your search.
Remember to use the wildcard '*' to increase the number of matches. Apple* will match 'apple' and 'apples'.


And when I opened one of your blogs it says:

Removed_Member_Snowlover123_*
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was having a tough time tracking the tropical wave on the ECMWF as it made its trek across the Atlantic because the kinks in the isobars were very minor (weak wave). But as soon as it made it to the Caribbean (a more moist environment) it was evident that it began to ramp up.


Its probably going to be a big massive spiral with absolutely NO convection identical to Bonnie. That's why the ECMWF isn't showing it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
Quoting TexasGulf:
I was in Baytown, Texas on Saturday for NHRA Texas Drag Racing. For those not familiar, Baytown is about 20 miles East of Houston.

There was only a very light breeze from the East, very little cloud cover but mostly clear, sunny and hot. Thank goodness for T.S. Bonnie and the light breeze or it would have been almost stifling hot sitting on those reflective aluminum bleachers that act like a solar mirror (or frying pan).

For the fashion conscious, Mohawks are definitely in style amongst the 6-14 year old crowd. This year, I noticed less lip, nose, eyelid and tongue jewelry, but an increased number of 1/2 finished tattoos. Every tattoo I saw was spelled correctly, which was a nice change from last year.

Anyway, Thank you T.S. Bonnie for saturating the New Orleans area and creating a slight breeze across S.E. Texas. It helped make the NHRA Drags bearable. The weather today is gorgeous too.

Also, I want to say a special thank you to Tropical Storm Alex, without whom I wouldn't have had several nice cucumbers and squash to harvest. The rains brought by Alex were a bonus.


Awww you're making me homesick, lol. I lived in Baytown for many, many years. Still have family and friends there.

I make a trip usually every six months or so. Was supposed to go today but had canceled plans due to not knowing what Bonnie would do. I may still go tomorrow.

Craving real brisket and real Mexican food, lol.
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Quoting aquak9:


make sure you show one of'm how to log on here, so thay can give us an update!

Will have my daughter Tina give updates on surgery day. And I have not smoked any cigarettes since 7-19
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
456.. ECMWF attempts to develop that wave in the Caribbean. Keep in mind this far out the ECMWF hasn't good resolution so this might be stronger than shown.. remember Bonnie?


I was having a tough time tracking the tropical wave on the ECMWF as it made its trek across the Atlantic because the kinks in the isobars were very minor (weak wave). But as soon as it made it to the Caribbean (a more moist environment) it was evident that it began to ramp up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Huh.. interesting tweet from Astronaut Clay Anderson. We should send 456 and StormW on a shuttle solely for meteorology with a IR camera to find dat pesky LLC ya know.


@mikeinyyz Most sig sight from space? Probably Hurricanes Dean and Felix...both category 5's; beautiful yet deadly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
Quoting severstorm:

Hey best of Luck and speedy recovery. How do you remember when to take all that stuff? LOL

Take Xanax morning, noon and night. 3 Blood pressure meds, hyudrocodone at 9am and 9pm, and Plavix and aspirin in the morning.
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Quoting unf97:


The core of the broad low pressure area is well inland now. Those are some of the convective feeders rotating in from the BOC into the dying Low pressure area


thanks unf97, i was just hoping for something to watch,lol its too quiet
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2017. aquak9
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am, God is in control, I am calm, my kids are all freaking out, but I believe I will be ok.


make sure you show one of'm how to log on here, so thay can give us an update!
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2016. xcool
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Quoting Weather456:


It will struggle with dry air, even though upper winds should remain low across the entire trek. It should reach the Caribbean in 1 week, actually pretty fast due to the speed of the deep layer flow south of the subtropical ridge. Once in the Caribbean, it will be monitored for development.

I am also interested in a wave near 40W. The islands can expect a repeat of 97L in terms of interaction with the TUTT.


good eye, I saw this yesterday, all it needs is some convection, and we could see a td if that happens
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2014. beell
Glad you're still with us, Bordo. Rest up and laugh alot. Especially at the trolls!
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Keep an eye on 12.5N/77W
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Quoting stormpetrol:

You're in my thoughts and prayers . I'm sure everything will go just fine. Best wishes on a successfull procedure/surgery and to a speedy and full recovery. Take care and try not to be anxious, I know easier said than done.

No, anxiety relief made possible by the letter "X" for xanax and "H" for hydrocodone, taken as prescribed, of course :o)
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Good evening!

I have a favor to ask you all here,

I tried to access the Accuweather.com forums, and I couldn't. (forums.accuweather.com) Could someone check the Climate Change forum and look in "Florida Winters getting more extreme" and look for my name (Snowlover123) and see if it says "removed member" next to my name? I would sincerely appreciate it.

-Snowlover123
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2010. oakland
Bordonaro- You are definitely in my prayers. I hope the surgery goes well and you're up and about soon.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, hydrocodone and low dosage of xanax are my new friends!! Oh, I must not forget a beta blocker, a calcium channel blocker and a ace inhibitor to control my blood pressure.

Hey best of Luck and speedy recovery. How do you remember when to take all that stuff? LOL
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2008. unf97
Quoting jacechase:




I am wondering the same thing, it looks like its still over water, or some part of it looks to trying to relocate over the water


The core of the broad low pressure area is well inland now. Those are some of the convective feeders rotating in from the BOC into the dying Low pressure area
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Quoting ElConando:
1985. Looks good, any chance at development with this?


It will struggle with dry air, even though upper winds should remain low across the entire trek across the Atlantic. It should reach the Caribbean in 1 week, actually pretty fast due to the speed of the deep layer flow south of the subtropical ridge. Once in the Caribbean, it will be monitored for development.

I am also interested in a wave near 40W. The islands can expect a repeat of 97L in terms of interaction with the TUTT.
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Welcome. I predict on the afternoon of 8/11 you're gonna be thinking "holy crap, that hurts!" followed by "WOW, I didn't know they had drugs that make you see purple dots" and about 48 hours later, you'll be challenging us all to a 10 mile run...

Yes, they actually make an incision in my neck, clamp off the artery, open it up, clean it out and re-sew up my neck. Thankfully on 5MM is blocked, but I will have a nice 1 to 2 inch scar on my neck.

I am not sure if I will be running a 20 mile race, maybe a nice 2 mile walk, without running out of breath!
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Good Luck Bordonaro - prayers outbound!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, how is the area of disturbed weather off of the Mexican coast, off the BOC Has that moved inland yet?




I am wondering the same thing, it looks like its still over water, or some part of it looks to trying to relocate over the water
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2003. xcool
African wave keep eye on
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Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!

You're in my thoughts and prayers . I'm sure everything will go just fine. Best wishes on a successfull procedure/surgery and to a speedy and full recovery. Take care and try not to be anxious, I know easier said than done.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:
To all my dear friends on WU. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, please.

On Monday, July 19, I was admitted to JPS Hospital in Ft Worth, TX.

After an angiogram of my heart and kidneys, 2 cat scans of my head and neck, plus a sonogram on my heart & neck, they found a blocked cataroid artery in the right side of my neck. I just got home at 12 NOON CDT today.

I have surgery on 8-11-2010 at 8AM to unblock that artery, it's 80% blocked. I am on Plavix, painkillers, 3 different blood pressure medications anti-anxiety medications and Lipitor. I am finally feeling decent after 10 days of misery. Man I turned 49 on 7-16-2010 and all heck broke loose!!


Glad you're back home feeling better. Will include you in our Friends prayers.
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I have a poll about how many named systems will form in August. Go to my blog and participate.

Link
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1997. NCWatch
Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport
Lat: 35.86 Lon: -77.88 Elev: 164
Last Update on Jul 25, 5:53 pm EDT


Fair

99 °F
(37 °C) Humidity: 45 %
Wind Speed: SW 13 G 21 MPH
Barometer: 29.88" (1011.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 74 °F (23 °C)
Heat Index: 111 °F (44 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History
It is hot in NC too!

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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, how is the area of disturbed weather off of the Mexican coast, off the BOC Has that moved inland yet?

All the "caters" must have been out in full force :O)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, hydrocodone and low dosage of xanax are my new friends!! Oh, I must not forget a beta blocker, a calcium channel blocker and a ace inhibitor to control my blood pressure.
Welcome. I predict on the afternoon of 8/11 you're gonna be thinking "holy crap, that hurts!" followed by "WOW, I didn't know they had drugs that make you see purple dots" and about 48 hours later, you'll be challenging us all to a 10 mile run...
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1994. oakland
Quoting cntrclckwiseSpenn:


Miami was "grazed". It would of been disasterous had it made a direct hit.

Tampa (Bay) has not been hit since 1921...and I think it carved out new islands, that storm was so strong.


The city of Miami was grazed thank heavens but Andrew was still devastating on a number of levels. Thanks to Andrew our schools in Broward County maxed out for several years due to families with nothing left and moved north.
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1993. unf97
Quoting unf97:


Yep. Hurricane David 1979. That storm rode all the way up the east coast of FL staying offshore only 30-50 miles the entire time after landfall near West Palm Beach right on up to landfall in Savannah. I remembered tracking David. We stayed on the weaker side of the circulation in Jax but still had wind gust well over tropical storm force and heavy rain squalls as he passed by offshore.
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456.. ECMWF attempts to develop that wave in the Caribbean. Keep in mind this far out the ECMWF hasn't good resolution so this might be stronger than shown.. remember Bonnie?


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
1985. Looks good, any chance at development with this?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think Miami has ever been hit by a category 5 (since record keeping started in 1856), Andrew was a category 4. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was also a category 4.


Miami was "grazed". It would of been disasterous had it made a direct hit.

Tampa (Bay) has not been hit since 1921...and I think it carved out new islands, that storm was so strong.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, I was also going through WU withdrawls this week. It was BAD!!


If you were on here during Bonnie, you would have needed xanax anyway!
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Quoting breald:


Best of luck.

Thanks, how is the area of disturbed weather off of the Mexican coast, off the BOC Has that moved inland yet?
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Wow, so quiet right now in the tropics.Is anything even showing it will develop in the near future?
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Here are some recon passes of Andrew, I seriously have no clue how they comprehended these.





If your interested in looking at things like the advisories, recon missions, radar fixes, etc... you can access them here in Andrew's "wallet".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Low level African wave

The wave is easily depicted on visible satellite imagery as cyclonic turning within the mid-low level dry and stable airmass associated with SAL. This is not the typical mid-level waves found near the axis of the AEJ further south. Rather, it is a complex association between a mid-level wave that interacted with the thermal trough over the Saharan Desert.



During the passage of the wave near Dakar, Senegal just shortly before 12Z today, classic wind shifts were noted. First, actually wind obs depict winds turning abruptly from the northeast to southeast, almost in a cyclonic fashion. The wave was accompanied by a jet max at 500-600 mb (AEJ) and below the wave at the surface, monsoon south-westerlies dominated.

The second image depicts the northerly (blue) and southerly (red) component of winds. It helps because we can assess whether a wind has a northerly component to it (NE - blue) or a southerly component to it (SE - red).






Other depictions include - mid-level infrared winds suggest cyclonic turning

Strong 850 mb vort

Pronounce turning on TPW

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1984. unf97
Quoting SavannahStorm:


lol, yea I have noted that before. I just hope the pattern doesn't change.

BTW, the last hurricane landfall, Category 1 or higher, in Savannah or Georgia will be 31 years ago this season... way overdue.


Yep. Hurricane David 1979. That storm rode all the way up the east coast of FL staying offshore only 30-50 miles the entire time right on up to landfall in Savannah. I rememebered tracking David. We stayed on the weaker side of the circulation in Jax but still had wind gust well over tropical storm force and heavy rain squalls as he passed by offshore.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good luck Bordonaro at least you got a heads up. For what it's worth I believe you'll be alright the strides they have made in medicine are truly amazing.Just take it easy and develop a positive attitude.

I am, God is in control, I am calm, my kids are all freaking out, but I believe I will be ok.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Glad to here you feeling better.

Thanks, I was also going through WU withdrawls this week. It was BAD!!
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Quoting hydrus:
I heard the whole coast has changed dramatically. In the early 70,s we would go to Ship Bottom, Long Beach Island and Surf City to party and some swimming for us kids. I hope to see it again some day.

Still beautiful, but I bet you wont recognize half of it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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