Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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FIMZ
192hrs (Strong Azores High "1036MB")
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the east-PAC may see some action in about a week according to HPC. All clear in the Atlantic.....from what I see.........on their maps....

7 day HPC...



Tell you what Ike, we're in for some real rough times shortly with the tropics. Your going to be wishing it was this quiet, I'm trying to enjoy it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, hydrocodone and low dosage of xanax are my new friends!! Oh, I must not forget a beta blocker, a calcium channel blocker and a ace inhibitor to control my blood pressure.


Xanax does come in handy!

Wow, lots of BP meds. Are you monitoring your BP at home?

Glad to hear you are ok!
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2078. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Need to look at their Hemispheric View

Low attached to a tropical wave day 5





Just a wave day 7




I see what you're saying.
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Quoting Weather456:



That's another thing, trades were weaker than normal. In fact, trades were so weak that the anomaly produce more cyclonic flow than usual. This has been illustrated by the countless waves with vigorous low level circulations (turning)


I was referring to more recently, but I digress. As far as the lack of activity goes Im pretty confident in the reasoning. Dry air/sal and the ULL train recently ... I think it's far more important to look at the last half of july as compared to the first half.
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Quoting IKE:


Looking at the GFS...both operational and parallel....I would agree.

I read on Crown Weather that the parallel GFS becomes operational this Tuesday(July 27th).


GFS changed to Wed July 28th, providing there is not a critical weather day.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
WOW, A waterspout just went over our house I look out the window and saw it coming had a distinct roar, I estimate the winds at 55-65mph easy lasted only about 2-3 minutes, everything was up in the air flying and swirling around, so excited I even forgot to try and capture it on my blacberry!
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the east-PAC may see some action in about a week according to HPC. All clear in the Atlantic.....from what I see.........on their maps....

7 day HPC...



Need to look at their Hemispheric View

Low attached to a tropical wave day 5





Just a wave day 7


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
Quoting stormpetrol:
Yellow circle at 8pm for the SW Caribbean?


No.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
I mentioned it back in June and will do so again ... while the strong high in the atlantic has caused faster trades, we still sit in a rough spot. We had limited TC activity in the early season that would have served to trim down those SST anomalies. While our overall storm count is lower than we may have expected ... Im afraid it wont save us in the ACE category if you follow....



That's another thing, trades were weaker than normal. In fact, trades were so weak that the anomaly produce more cyclonic flow than usual. This has been illustrated by the countless waves with vigorous low level circulations (turning)

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Quoting IKE:


Looking at the GFS...both operational and parallel....I would agree.

I read on Crown Weather that the parallel GFS becomes operational this Tuesday(July 27th).

first run is at 12z I believe
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Quoting Fl30258713:


MJO?
Yep. Upward motion increases shower and thunderstorm activity while downward motion suppresses it. It can be noted quite well on those large scale satellite images.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting stormpetrol:

I know what you're going through, I have some health issues myself, I had major surgery back in 93 to remove my gallbladder, It was done the conventional way 8" scar, had over 400+ stones , it nearly killed me, not the surgery , I made a speedy recovery and was back to work in 6 weeks, I worked at the Hospital for over 18years until I had to be retired in 2003 due a Ankylosing Spondylitis, it tends to flare up though its not a life threatening problem, just a lifelong tormenting painful condition. I also have HTN which is very controlled with beta blocker (atenolol, cozaar and HCTZ), I'm also a mild diabetic controlled also with just one metformin, I also take aspirin daily for inflammation and heart health in general , so far I don't have CAD, almost forget, also on lexapro and clonazepam for anxiety disorder which has been a life saver and given me back my life so to speak, despite my medical issues I'm fairly otherwise healthy according to my doctors. Hang in you'll be fine, keep us posted!

I will, and with my luck, -our first CAT 3 hurricane will develop on 8-11-10 while I am in surgery!!
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anyone ever seen 5 ULLs affecting the Atlantic basin at once? (New one just starting to rotate around the base of the TUTT) http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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2067. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
pattern may hold till aug 8th or 9th which is going to stress out a lot that are expecting activity unforseen things are at play at the moment window is closing on systems but when it reopens that may be a whole different story


Looking at the GFS...both operational and parallel....I would agree.

I read on Crown Weather that the parallel GFS becomes operational this Tuesday(July 27th).
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Yellow circle at 8pm for the SW Caribbean?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


MJO?
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2064. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.
pattern may hold till aug 8th or 9th which is going to stress out a lot that are expecting activity unforseen things are at play at the moment window is closing on systems but when it reopens that may be a whole different story
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
I mentioned it back in June and will do so again ... while the strong high in the atlantic has caused faster trades, we still sit in a rough spot. We had limited TC activity in the early season that would have served to trim down those SST anomalies. While our overall storm count is lower than we may have expected ... Im afraid it wont save us in the ACE category if you follow....
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2062. xcool


you can see African wave
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Quoting Weather456:
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.
Yep. You still have 6 days for your forecast to verify.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting scibrad:


Wow looks like it may have been impressive if not for the stable air. Any ideas when things will get more moist? Is dry air like this typical for mid/late July?


Dry air is very typical for July as it marks the peak of SAL outbreaks. It becomes more pronounce if the MJO is in a downward phase over the tropical Atlantic.

This was not the case however as the MJO was upward from 0W - 60W from July 1-present as shown below. This suggest, it could of been alot worst/drier.



Now from the time series above notice, the area of brown is inching closer to 60W from the east. This is the agreement of the long-range and climate models that downward motion is entering the Atlantic and could last anywhere from 1.5 weeks to 3 weeks. We have proven before however, that the 200 mb (upper air) downward effects of the MJO has been retarded by the upward force of continued above normal ssts. Therefore the exact effects of what is to come, is rather uncertain.

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Quoting Bordonaro:

No, anxiety relief made possible by the letter "X" for xanax and "H" for hydrocodone, taken as prescribed, of course :o)

I know what you're going through, I have some health issues myself, I had major surgery back in 93 to remove my gallbladder, It was done the conventional way 8" scar, had over 400+ stones , it nearly killed me, not the surgery , I made a speedy recovery and was back to work in 6 weeks, I worked at the Hospital for over 18years until I had to be retired in 2003 due a Ankylosing Spondylitis, it tends to flare up though its not a life threatening problem, just a lifelong tormenting painful condition. I also have HTN which is very controlled with beta blocker (atenolol, cozaar and HCTZ), I'm also a mild diabetic controlled also with just one metformin, I also take aspirin daily for inflammation and heart health in general , so far I don't have CAD, almost forget, also on lexapro and clonazepam for anxiety disorder which has been a life saver and given me back my life so to speak, despite my medical issues I'm fairly otherwise healthy according to my doctors. Hang in you'll be fine, keep us posted!
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Quoting Weather456:
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.
Looking forward to your analysis of why July was/is a bust. Lot of time to go but I'll be interested to see the analysis on how all pre-season indicators can point towards one prediction with ACE, an fairly recent indicator, in the basement...
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Quoting Weather456:
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.

well when you see the tutt ejecting all those ULL, it's pretty clear I think. I imagine and Im sure you agree, that the constant train of ULL will slow down and shrink as we head into August. Im still quite confident we have an above average season :)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It has been kind of overcast all day but just got real dark and started blowing like mad.
Yep.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Weather456:
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.


I agree, we have had upward motion and pretty decent conditions overall in the Atlantic this month; yet only were able to get 1 TD and 1 TS out of it
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just a lil' bit breezy. Lol, watch out you can get some twigs and small objects flying around in those winds.
It has been kind of overcast all day but just got real dark and started blowing like mad.
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2052. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


cough cough cough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
July marks the peak of the African dust outbreaks. With the conditions observed during the month, it is puzzling why we did not had more than one named storm which I expected.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just a lil' bit breezy. Lol, watch out you can get some twigs and small objects flying around in those winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2049. xcool
KEEPEROFTHEGATE .THANKS.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



big picture
That's cool!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Winds blowing here 35 mph gusting over 40.
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2046. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
SO nextinvest 90L
yep looks that way
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
2045. scibrad
Quoting Weather456:
That wave in in post 1985, is the 4th wave this month with a vigorous low level circulation void of significant deep convection due to the dry and stable airmass they were embedded.

The others included a wave that emerged around July 17-18



The wave that became 97L (far right)



and a wave near 40W


Wow looks like it may have been impressive if not for the stable air. Any ideas when things will get more moist? Is dry air like this typical for mid/late July?
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2044. IKE
Looks like the east-PAC may see some action in about a week according to HPC. All clear in the Atlantic.....from what I see.........on their maps....

7 day HPC...

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2043. xcool
SO nextinvest 90L
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Likely. The dry stable air just suppresses that convection to a point that all you see is a swirl. Then when it gets into a moist environment it ramps up. Bonnie did the same thing, the only exception this time is that Bonnie went north of the Caribbean islands, this one will likely go south of them and in through the Caribbean. Gonna be an interesting lil' guy to track and watch.
Winds blowing here 35 mph gusting over 40.
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2041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



big picture
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
Quoting beell:
Glad you're still with us, Bordo. Rest up and laugh alot. Especially at the trolls!

Yes, numerous incarnation of the dreaded one, I cleared my banned list, as they have appeared to have gone "POOF" forever!!
Quoting aquak9:


bord!! no way! really? WAY!! oh that's great. Man I wish I had that kinda control.

It was easy! The DRS said you will either quit smoking, or you will die of a major stroke!! I took the easy road! Believe me, I want to smoke, but it is not worth it, period!!
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2039. xcool
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 21W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL
INDICATE THE WAVE PASSING AROUND 25/0000 UTC. LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE
DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE.
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This should not have happened until the last week though, since for much of July, the tropical Atlantic remained more unstable than normal. The last increase in stability (noted by the drop) marks the last African dust outbreak.

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2037. oakland
Yes, Congrats on quitting the cigarettes.
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2036. aquak9
could you imagine if our computers had a cigarette smoke detector that made'm shut down?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Will have my daughter Tina give updates on surgery day. And I have not smoked any cigarettes since 7-19

BORDO,If you stopped smoking than the rest should be easy. Thats one of the hardest things to do.My congrads
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2034. aquak9
Quoting Bordonaro:

Will have my daughter Tina give updates on surgery day. And I have not smoked any cigarettes since 7-19


bord!! no way! really? WAY!! oh that's great. Man I wish I had that kinda control.
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Quoting beell:
Glad you're still with us, Bordo. Rest up and laugh alot. Especially at the trolls!

Yes, numerous incarnation of the dreaded one, I cleared my banned list, as they have appeared to have gone "POOF" forever!!
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2032. xcool
btwntx08 i think African wave watch now...
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, they actually make an incision in my neck, clamp off the artery, open it up, clean it out and re-sew up my neck. Thankfully on 5MM is blocked, but I will have a nice 1 to 2 inch scar on my neck.

I am not sure if I will be running a 20 mile race, maybe a nice 2 mile walk, without running out of breath!
Remember, pain goes away and chicks dig scars (even if you're married to them or they are your daughters). Machines, like the human body, operate much more effeciently when the pipes aren't blocked. You will a. feel a MAJOR difference and b. lose about 10 of those 12 or so pills they have you on. Again, welcome to the front side of 50...it only gets worse from here...LOL (except for those that get re-plumbed, like you...double LOL!!)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.