Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
what the heck is PGI20L?
navy experimental areas of invest there is two actual 19l and 20l
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Keeper, who was it on the blog that said they broke in and took all the crayons from the NHC a couple of weeks back? Maybe they should give them back!
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what the heck is PGI20L?
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Although void of convection PGI20L has pretty well defined cyclonic curvature.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

when the MOJO changes it should also change the SAL one follows the other right?
if this is correct then dosn't this change start around mid Aug.?
Are am i just looking at this wrong?
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Quoting oakland:


This is the message I got when searching. I hope this helps.

Unfortunately your search didn't return any results.
Try broadening the search parameters by searching by different keywords or altering the format of your search.
Remember to use the wildcard '*' to increase the number of matches. Apple* will match 'apple' and 'apples'.


And when I opened one of your blogs it says:

Removed_Member_Snowlover123_*


Thank you. :')
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Quoting StormW:


Second.


All right. I'm personally waiting on a clearing out of the SAL and for some Cape Verde waves to persist. Then we'll have our foundation for predictions for the rest of the season.

Also, if you're correct, that makes me a rushcaster, right? ;-)
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2124. scibrad
Quoting Weather456:


Dry air is very typical for July as it marks the peak of SAL outbreaks. It becomes more pronounce if the MJO is in a downward phase over the tropical Atlantic.

This was not the case however as the MJO was upward from 0W - 60W from July 1-present as shown below. This suggest, it could of been alot worst/drier.



Now from the time series above notice, the area of brown is inching closer to 60W from the east. This is the agreement of the long-range and climate models that downward motion is entering the Atlantic and could last anywhere from 1.5 weeks to 3 weeks. We have proven before however, that the 200 mb (upper air) downward effects of the MJO has been retarded by the upward force of continued above normal ssts. Therefore the exact effects of what is to come, is rather uncertain.



Cool, thanks!
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2123. xcool
StormW:
nailed Bonnie good job ;)
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2122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Congrats Storm on an accurate forecast of Bonnie!
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Good Evening Senior Chief!
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Evening Senior...repeating an earlier comment: looking forward to the analysis from those who know on how July was/is a bust with all indicators showing otherwise except ACE, a relatively new indicator, in the basement...
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2117. xcool



kind old
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Without convection the cyclonic curvature of PGI20L (Cape Verde area) shows up well on low level winds




The ECMWF attempts to pull this together in the Eastern Caribbean and trucks it Westward.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Hi StormW.

Last day of my summer vacation, will go through blog withdrawel tomorrow during the day :(. I have to work 10 hr days the first two weeks back, so I will only get my fix in for a little while each night.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
What a long week this will be here on the blog. Back and forth, back and forth between hyper-active and hyper-bustive.


Well...we could always watch this in between:
Link
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2111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
evening storm
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Senior Chief!

When is our best chance for some real activity in the tropics? I'm guessing first week of August.
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I'm back from the movies. Seems the tropics are leaning towards the quiet side, for now...
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Without convection the cyclonic curvature of PGI20L (Cape Verde area) shows up well on low level winds


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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Good evening Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2106. K8eCane
Being from Southeast NC, I'm afraid I have become a HotCaster
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2104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:
What a long week this will be here on the blog. Back and forth, back and forth between hyper-active and hyper-bustive.
we can always watch ice melt

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Quoting DestinJeff:
What a long week this will be here on the blog. Back and forth, back and forth between hyper-active and hyper-bustive.
OMG! Thank Gog you survived...the blog was worried about you
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seems like it might take a while for that to moisten up eh KOTG? on the other hand close to home, if UL conditions improve it might focus development close by allowing AEWs to stay undeveloped until too far west to curve to sea
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


cough cough cough


It is not as thick as it looks in the picture. We had blue skies (not yellow) all day today.
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2099. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:
What a long week this will be here on the blog. Back and forth, back and forth between hyper-active and hyper-bustive.
might be closer too a long two weeks on the blog
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
PGI20L maintaining good low level vorticity despite no convection.




Could be something in the W Caribbean if there is good moisture there.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
2097. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
PGI20L maintaining good low level vorticity despite no convection.


Impressive.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
PGI20L maintaining good low level vorticity despite no convection.


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2093. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


dry air traverses across carb and eventually gom closing the basin down
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Quoting stormpetrol:

check out that link i posted owen roberts recorded wind gusts 57.2mph , I watched a waterspout come directly from that area awhile ago cross right over my house, something definitely brewing in this area I think.
I always go on that . I tried to post it too but don't know what happened it didn't show up. East End had 48 mph.
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2090. EtexJC
Does anyone know where that ULL that was in the GOM, that's now in texas, is going? I think the poor little guy is lost....
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

check out that link i posted owen roberts recorded wind gusts 57.2mph , I watched a waterspout come directly from that area awhile ago cross right over my house, something definitely brewing in this area I think.
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2087. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Does anyone remember what the MJO was like in 2005? It couldn%u2019t of been upward the entire season. Is there a breakdown available during in which months it was up, down or neutral (If there is such a thing)?


Was fairly undefined in 2005 with an even split between the Atlantic and Pacific because the water was warm over there too.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698


we have worse weather now than when bonnie was coming by us
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Link
Check this out, my estimation is about right, the direction the waterspout was coming from was directly over the airport, they recorded windgusts at 57 mph.
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Does anyone remember what the MJO was like in 2005? It couldn’t of been upward the entire season. Is there a breakdown available during in which months it was up, down or neutral (If there is such a thing)?
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2083. bakers
did anyone notice when tracking bonnie, computer models were consistently about 100 miles to far south in the short term. examble models tracking over keywest when adviseries were first issued. ended up over miami to exit naples. nhc disscusions spoke of tight clustering and high confidence and acted like they were correct all along. good thing this was a week storm.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Xanax does come in handy!

Wow, lots of BP meds. Are you monitoring your BP at home?

Glad to hear you are ok!

Yes, it is between 100/70 to 125/80 this afternoon. FINALLY, most of the dizziness has subsided and I can focus pretty good.
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FIMZ
192hrs (Strong Azores High "1036MB")
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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