Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DestinJeff:


yeah. kind of get that feeling. whammmmmp whaaaaa, as Pat might say.


There are always real people out there to talk to DJ. Although in my experience, unless they can see it or feel it, they're not interested in discussing weather-related topics like invests and ULL's or even whether it's expected to be a busy hurricane season or not.
Frankly, my dear, they don't give a damn.
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susnet after a rain squall in key west
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2179. xcool
sammywammybamy maybe next week
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lol red stick ... pretty much any spinning you are seeing on WV imagery right now is an ULL ... I counted 5 influencing the basin today
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There's some faint 850 mb vorticity showing up there too StormPetrol.
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2175. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09
yayy
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2174. pottery
Quoting ElConando:


Whats it stand for?

Get Ready In Time, Son.
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Quoting ElConando:


Whats even more incredible that they got PREDICT to be an acronym.


Not to be confused with GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) although they will share data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11153
Quoting SouthALWX:
anyone ever seen 5 ULLs affecting the Atlantic basin at once? (New one just starting to rotate around the base of the TUTT) http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Is that a ULL I see coming into the gulf by Florida?
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Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes (GrITs)
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Quoting stormpetrol:
TW around 10N/40W has a nice spin though void of convection, though it seems to be developing just a slight more this evening.

There is still a lot of SAL in the area.
That's really been a factor in suppressing some of the strong waves we've seen so far this season. That and the ULL's.
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20 PGI20L 100725 0000 15.8N 18.4W ATL 15 1010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting StormW:


I haven't done a thorough analysis, and probably won't have the time. However, I would venture to say, thinking about it for a short time, one of the main culprits is the SAL. Granted, the SAL is pretty much noted in any season, some stronger than others. I feel a lot of the interference with the SAL has been mainly timing, as well as the alignment of the Upper Level Lows we've witnessed. I think another factor, even though it is favorable, is that the development we have been having, has been mainly monsoonal, causing very slow development of systems. Can't get multiple systems from that pattern as you can in the Pacific, due to how much smaller the Caribbean is in size. Other than that, the MJO is working just as it should. We've seen it enter into Octant 2, twice now, and each time, have seen a storm develop (Alex; Bonnie). Other than those factors mentioned, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.
Thank you Senior...Skye was the first to present ACE as an overall factor but I look forward to the 4 forecasters observations on how this season can be what it will be...
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Lol I still like Huntville's GRITS better ... =P


Whats it stand for?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
Quoting blsealevel:

when the MOJO changes it should also change the SAL one follows the other right?
if this is correct then dosn't this change start around mid Aug.?
Are am i just looking at this wrong?
MoJo,Sal,Mel,Nato what does it all mean?
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Quoting ElConando:


Whats even more incredible that they got PREDICT to be an acronym.

Lol I still like Huntville's GRITS better ... =P
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TW around 10N/40W has a nice spin though void of convection, though it seems to be developing just a slight more this evening.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Naval Postgraduate School pouch tracking. It will be a part of this summer's PREDICT (PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics) that starts Aug 15. Mainly will be used to identify systems to fly into using the National Science Foundations G-V plane. NASA will also take part.


Whats even more incredible that they got PREDICT to be an acronym.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
Since the GOM seems to be a hotbed for future storms, I was wondering what areas along the Gulf of mexico will most likely feel the effects of a landfall during Aug-Sept-Oct possibly?
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2160. xcool
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2159. xcool
Link

go here...
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I love the relative lack of activity compared to what could have been thus far this year. While the bulk of the hurricane season is still ahead, each day without a destructive hurricane raging near land is a blessing.

A hopefully calm period for the remainder of this week which will bring us to the beginning of August with no more than normal activity for the hurricane so far. It would be nice if some strong troughs can come down prematurely from Canada to the eastern seaboard and keep anything away from the east coast of the U.S. That may be asking too much, but who knows what may transpire.
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2157. xcool



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Off-topic but is there anyone from the Pascagoula area? My fiance is working over there and needs to take a vehicle in to be fixed. I dread that since we do not know any reliable/honest mechanics in that area.

So, if anyone knows, please let me know, I guess mail on here?

Thanks in advance!
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Quoting ElConando:


Don't tell me were gonna have these on the site now too.
Yep! Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting xcool:
19 PGI19L 100725 0000 10.9N 37.7W ATL 15 1010mb
Can I have the link for those? I can't find them...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Thought if they put a couple more little circles on the map it might keep the blog busy, lol! All we have now is little swirls streaking across the water.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Makes me think like they declared an Invest or something...LOL


Don't tell me were gonna have these on the site now too.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
2150. aquak9
I stole all the crayons, and I bought out all the surrounding Kmarts and WalMarts, too.

And no, I ain't givin'm back!
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2149. Levi32
Quoting beell:


negative QBO


Maybe but its effect is minimal during a warm AMO.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646
2148. xcool
WeatherNerdPR .nooInvest
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Quoting xcool:
19 PGI19L 100725 0000 10.9N 37.7W ATL 15 1010mb

Makes me think like they declared an Invest or something...LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5680
2146. xcool
StormW .welcome.
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Quoting ElConando:


LOL
LMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting stormpetrol:

I know what you're going through, I have some health issues myself, I had major surgery back in 93 to remove my gallbladder, It was done the conventional way 8" scar, had over 400+ stones , it nearly killed me, not the surgery , I made a speedy recovery and was back to work in 6 weeks, I worked at the Hospital for over 18years until I had to be retired in 2003 due a Ankylosing Spondylitis, it tends to flare up though its not a life threatening problem, just a lifelong tormenting painful condition. I also have HTN which is very controlled with beta blocker (atenolol, cozaar and HCTZ), I'm also a mild diabetic controlled also with just one metformin, I also take aspirin daily for inflammation and heart health in general , so far I don't have CAD, almost forget, also on lexapro and clonazepam for anxiety disorder which has been a life saver and given me back my life so to speak, despite my medical issues I'm fairly otherwise healthy according to my doctors. Hang in you'll be fine, keep us posted!


Ativan has been my life-saver for anxiety attacks/disorder. Couldn't handle the SSRIs.

Good to hear you have the diabetes under control. I see so much non-compliance with diabetes and its a shame since the damage is awful (kidneys, amputations, etc).
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2142. xcool
19 PGI19L 100725 0000 10.9N 37.7W ATL 15 1010mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2141. beell
Quoting StormW:


I haven't done a thorough analysis, and probably won't have the time. However, I would venture to say, thinking about it for a short time, one of the main culprits is the SAL. Granted, the SAL is pretty much noted in any season, some stronger than others. I feel a lot of the interference with the SAL has been mainly timing, as well as the alignment of the Upper Level Lows we've witnessed. I think another factor, even though it is favorable, is that the development we have been having, has been mainly monsoonal, causing very slow development of systems. Can't get multiple systems from that pattern as you can in the Pacific, due to how much smaller the Caribbean is in size. Other than that, the MJO is working just as it should. We've seen it enter into Octant 2, twice now, and each time, have seen a storm develop (Alex; Bonnie). Other than those factors mentioned, I can't think of anything off the top of my head.


negative QBO
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Evening Storm you called Bonnie right on, evening everyone, looks pretty quiet right now, still in the learning phase and I learned quite a bit with Bonnie. Particularly how an upper low affects tropical systems that time. The second low also sheared any development on the "Bonnie2" system over and near DR and PR. Pretty cool stuff to watch.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
what the heck is PGI20L?


Naval Postgraduate School pouch tracking. It will be a part of this summer's PREDICT (PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics) that starts Aug 15. Mainly will be used to identify systems to fly into using the National Science Foundations G-V plane. NASA will also take part.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11153
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wave-pouch tracking. Contact Nrt for a better explanation. Here's the link if you're interested:

Current Wave-Pouches


LOL
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
2134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cloudy0day:
Keeper, who was it on the blog that said they broke in and took all the crayons from the NHC a couple of weeks back? Maybe they should give them back!
can't remember but there not gonna need them for a bit it seems anyway
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
Any mets ever feel like this on the blog? LOL
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
Quoting Hurricanes101:
what the heck is PGI20L?
Wave-pouch tracking. Contact Nrt for a better explanation. Here's the link if you're interested:

Current Wave-Pouches
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
what the heck is PGI20L?
navy experimental areas of invest there is two actual 19l and 20l
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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