Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2231. palmpt
There are some funny people on this blog... the best one over the last week was someone said they needed to train a monkey to hit the refresh key... lol
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2230. xcool
I stayed up all night and go right to work.haha
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2229. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe but its effect is minimal during a warm AMO.


Interesting, anyway. We certainly have not been lacking in subsidence.
Photobucket
Link
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Quoting Levi32:
Then again, something could always sneak up like that homegrown mischief off the SE coast, near Bermuda, or the northern gulf during the next 10 days. We have a couple shots at that from old fronts getting draped down there. The wave west of Africa also bears watching.



I see alot of dry air (dust?) in the E. Atlantic. Won't that crack-down on the chances of major development?
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Quoting WindynEYW:
your city or county government ofices should have a list of special needs people requiring assistance during evacuations, if you know anyone who requires special assistance, they can be registered with them & they contact them before storm & find out what their needs are ie: wheelchair, stretcher, oxygen, including pet friendly shelters.

A 93-year-old woman lives across the street from me. She's quite independent and gardens a lot. I just as soon put her on an airplane to her daughter's house in Colorado.
Anywhere else would stress her out too much.
My mother, 84, lives two doors down from her. She insists she won't leave. But my brother lives on the mainland so she'd probably go over there. We're on a barrier island less than 1/2 mile from the Atlantic Ocean. Nice and high, but we all know what can happen in a hurricane. Me I'll stay here with my pets and weather the storm. Downstairs, I've got quite a hefty hurricane shelter. And already have bought new blue tarps, etc., in case the roof goes.
They all think I'm crazy and nothing will ever happen.
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Hi StormW.

Last day of my summer vacation, will go through blog withdrawel tomorrow during the day :(. I have to work 10 hr days the first two weeks back, so I will only get my fix in for a little while each night.


This blog is addicting. I've been an addict lurking for years.

I go back to nursing school in two weeks. I keep thinking ugh activity will pick up then!

There were a few test grades this summer I probably could have done better on had I not been on here, lol.
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Quoting Levi32:


You'll be hearing that a lot from the northern hemisphere this winter too, including me....we here in Alaska are about to go through probably the worst winter in decades....we haven't seen a cold PDO like this coming on since the 70s.


Is there a map or chart of this because I would think parts of the N hemisphere would likely see record could while other areas might be warmer than normal or be just normal.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
2224. palmpt
You are right, 1900... we sleep between updates. Sane people really wonder about us. My wife moves my ipad thinking that will help... I just get up and find it in the dark...
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Quoting SLU:


Notice the large surge of moisture with the new tropical wave. That's very much unlike what we saw with the large wave which spawned Bonnie and the others before it. This could allow the wave to start to gain convection a bit earlier than the last few waves. Definitely a wave to cast an eye on as per the computer models.


I'm wondering if it can get past all that dry air and into the W Caribbean. May have a shot if it does. But we will have to see what happens. Maybe a single surprise in the Late July/Early August lull, or just another wave waiting to fizzle.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Well...we could always watch this in between:
Link


HAHA!!!! Hilarious!!!
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Quoting palmpt:
Do you guys feel the same as I do... when there is no threat, you sleep better. Actually I realize about 75% of you don't sleep. I go to bed late when there is a storm out there... Tampa, xcool, StormW, the TAZ man and so many of you are commenting. I get up at 2 and you guys are still commenting... I get up for good at 5 and many of you are still here. This blog would be a great place to study sleep deprivation. So many of us need a good sleep. When the heat of the season arrives, we will all be totally exhausted! and I have a day job!

Yeah, I know what you mean, When Alex was out there, I'd stay up past midnight, get a couple of hours of restless sleep, automatically get up (no alarm or anything) within about 10 minutes of 4 am for the latest advisory, get a couple more hours of restless sleep, and then get up at 6:30 for the morning shift at work. I then go all day, and then the cycle repeats itself.
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Ahhh 9 p.m. Sunday night. Great time to turn in early. Glad Bonnie didn't disrupt the oil spill clean up too much. I hope they can get things in place so if and when we have a real threat there won't be oil and methane spewing into the GOM again.
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2219. palmpt
Was not sure about you but wanted to give you credit for working what seems like 24 hours a day!
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2218. xcool
lmao
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Quoting Chicklit:
I was impressed by the maps posted earlier today showing the high SSTs in the MDR region between Africa and Us. We know something is going to spin up, it helps to be prepared and start talking to neighbors about getting medicines filled ahead of time and getting contact numbers in case the old folks need to evacuate.
Good info. I work in a hospital in FL and I agree...let's also not forget about the pets they need their shots update and meds and tags to identify.
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Quoting Chicklit:
I was impressed by the maps posted earlier today showing the high SSTs in the MDR region between Africa and Us. We know something is going to spin up, it helps to be prepared and start talking to neighbors about getting medicines filled ahead of time and getting contact numbers in case the old folks need to evacuate.
your city or county government ofices should have a list of special needs people requiring assistance during evacuations, if you know anyone who requires special assistance, they can be registered with them & they contact them before storm & find out what their needs are ie: wheelchair, stretcher, oxygen, including pet friendly shelters.
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2215. Levi32
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


All of my wife's family lives in Peru and they are staying that they can't remember a winter like this.....


You'll be hearing that a lot from the northern hemisphere this winter too, including me....we here in Alaska are about to go through probably the worst winter in decades....we haven't seen a cold PDO like this coming on since the 70s.
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2213. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Agreed. Be interesting to see what the Parallel is showing.


Same thing...been agreeing with the old GFS for the last couple weeks on the upper pattern. NRT told us yesterday that the parallel is taking over as the normal GFS on the 28th....so it's time to say bye to the old one.

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2212. palmpt
Do you guys feel the same as I do... when there is no threat, you sleep better. Actually I realize about 75% of you don't sleep. I go to bed late when there is a storm out there... Tampa, xcool, StormW, the TAZ man and so many of you are commenting. I get up at 2 and you guys are still commenting... I get up for good at 5 and many of you are still here. This blog would be a great place to study sleep deprivation. So many of us need a good sleep. When the heat of the season arrives, we will all be totally exhausted! and I have a day job!
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Quoting Levi32:
Peru Government Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions, 409 pneumonia and other cold-related deaths so far this winter


All of my wife's family lives in Peru and they are staying that they can't remember a winter like this.....
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I was impressed by the maps posted earlier today showing the high SSTs in the MDR region between Africa and Us. We know something is going to spin up; it helps to be prepared and start talking to neighbors about getting medicines filled ahead of time and getting contact numbers in case the old folks need to evacuate.
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2208. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, me either...it's one factor that explains July being slow. Did ya get a gander at the 200mb set up in a couple weeks?


Yup....GFS had that setting up around now 2 weeks ago but was too early apparently. However, it has started to change, with the TUTT weakening and fracturing into more cut-off upper lows, so the GFS wasn't totally off.
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2207. SLU


Notice the large surge of moisture with the new tropical wave. That's very much unlike what we saw with the large wave which spawned Bonnie and the others before it. This could allow the wave to start to gain convection a bit earlier than the last few waves. Definitely a wave to cast an eye on as per the computer models.
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In the meantime, have a nice evening everyone.
catloop
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Nothing in the next 14 days? Ya sure 'bout that?


It may look week but keep in mind, ECMWF showed Bonnie like this in long range. It also has been showing this for at least 4 runs, or two days. Its that wave emerging off Africa and yesterday's 12z run had a moderate TS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
Ladies and Gents, I'm out...Bord, positive thoughts already headed your way, 456 and Senior, looking forward to the adjusted forecast, Skye, you're just damn brilliant at this point so far, ACE, go figure, Dept of the Navy, good evening Sir, I stick to my original statement...
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2203. xcool
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Quoting Levi32:


Indeed. His remarks about the continental temps were enlightening....I never thought about that before. Kind of helps explain why September is almost always the peak month for the Atlantic hurricane season too.
i was trying to explain to our emergency manager during our last eoc meeting the need for our city to be extra prepared this season & put into place surge supplies, a.c.f & ccp & staffing for a mash unit, we are always on our own down here for upto 72 hours after a storm before we see fema or dmat teams
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, it is between 100/70 to 125/80 this afternoon. FINALLY, most of the dizziness has subsided and I can focus pretty good.


Good range!

Was just curious since on three BP meds need to monitor it doesn't get too low, especially before taking any. :)

I see you mentioned aspirin. Was going to ask if taking that or anything like warfarin.
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2199. xcool


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2198. Levi32
Then again, something could always sneak up like that homegrown mischief off the SE coast, near Bermuda, or the northern gulf during the next 10 days. We have a couple shots at that from old fronts getting draped down there. The wave west of Africa also bears watching.
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2197. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


That's about it...didn't like what Bastardi was pointing out on the maps.


Indeed. His remarks about the continental temps were enlightening....I never thought about that before. Kind of helps explain why September is almost always the peak month for the Atlantic hurricane season too.
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MoJo,Sal,Mel,Nato what does it all mean?

Double Clik on Storm W name and you will go to his blog he has a ton of abreviation's their.
and a pretty good explanation of any weather events in the tropics to.
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2195. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


It's nice, until August 15th hits. Be ready.


I'm always ready.


Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well then take a vacation like the Doc by all means.


Sorry...no vacation. I'll stay around and root for a blank.

Nice isn't it?
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Quoting Levi32:


It's nice, until August 10th hits. Be ready.

Really?
So that's about three weeks from now.
Good. That should give me time to get my year launched (I work on the school calendar.)
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Quoting IKE:


Oh...it'll last for awhile...maybe 10-14 days.

Ain't it nice?


Well then take a vacation like the Doc by all means. Its going to be storm after storm after storm once it starts going.. you should read StormW's update if you haven't already.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
With all of the planes that will be flying Aug 15 - Sep 30, hope for at least an average season in that timeframe. A G-IV, G-V, DC-8, WB-57, 2 P-3 and the Global Hawk.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11061
2188. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


Oh...it'll last for awhile...maybe 10-14 days.

Ain't it nice?


It's nice, until August 10th hits. Be ready.
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Quoting IKE:


Oh...it'll last for awhile...maybe 10-14 days.

Ain't it nice?

Yes, I'm looking forward to a productive two weeks getting work done that I am paid for doing.
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2186. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Ain't it nice...nothin.....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
yes
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2185. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wont last Ike.. enjoy it.


Oh...it'll last for awhile...maybe 10-14 days.

Ain't it nice?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

No, anxiety relief made possible by the letter "X" for xanax and "H" for hydrocodone, taken as prescribed, of course :o)


And don't forget they've got real good cutters there at JPS. That should lower anxiety as well.
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Wont last Ike.. enjoy it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
2182. IKE
Ain't it nice...nothin.....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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Quoting DestinJeff:


yeah. kind of get that feeling. whammmmmp whaaaaa, as Pat might say.


There are always real people out there to talk to DJ. Although in my experience, unless they can see it or feel it, they're not interested in discussing weather-related topics like invests and ULL's or even whether it's expected to be a busy hurricane season or not.
Frankly, my dear, they don't give a damn.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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