Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3631 - 3581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Quoting CybrTeddy:


And Danielle maybe too.. 12z ECMWF has a 1000 mb low in the Yucatan Channel and another system right behind it.




That's certainly a possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Based on the fact that the GFS has been steadily growing less robust with the current downward MJO pulse, in both its strength and longevity, we should begin to see activity ramp up again by the second week of August. At that point, we could see a parade of storms.

We'll have Colin soon. Don't worry.


And Danielle maybe too.. 12z ECMWF has a 1000 mb low in the Yucatan Channel and another system right behind it.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds at Campeche switched around to ESE, which would not support any evidence of a surface reflection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Couldn't have said it better myself! LOL.


Based on the fact that the GFS has been steadily growing less robust with the current downward MJO pulse, in both its strength and longevity, we should begin to see activity ramp up again by the second week of August. At that point, we could see a parade of storms.

We'll have Colin soon. Don't worry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3626. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
3624. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Here's the only evidence I could find of a ridge in the NW Caribbean:

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Thanks Storm for this map. So, it is a relatively small ridge in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because you're incredibly bored, and desperate to have something to track. :P


Couldn't have said it better myself! LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3622. xcool
WeatherNerdPR .time for new pc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Storm doesn't seem to be too impressed with it, so I shouldn't be either. However, I'm just being a little stubborn and giving it a little chance. :-)


Because you're incredibly bored, and desperate to have something to track. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Satellite presentation continues to improve.

My computer chose the wrong time to be slow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3619. xcool
move to NW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Will be interesting to see if it can survive the Yucatan.. we could see some 'mischief' once it gets into the BOC.


Storm doesn't seem to be too impressed with it, so I shouldn't be either. However, I'm just being a little stubborn and giving it a little chance. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Upper-level winds do not favor significant development of this disturbance, as per the 12z GFS wind shear forecast.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3615. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
I found this kinda interesting as well:

Forecast for Campeche, MX

Afternoon...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.
Evening...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph. Changing to rain and overcast skies with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.

The winds have been blowing out of the east northeast at 20-25mph this afternoon.


Well, based on that forecast, a Low pressure system would move either right over them or just to the north of Campeche. Another 1mb drop in barometric pressure this hour I see. As I stated in a few posts back, with such pressure readings, no doubt we have something trying to brew at the surface there for sure. We'll see if it happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3614. Levi32
Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 26th
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3613. KORBIN
Hey Storm,

If something were to form in the W. Carribean over the Yuct. would it continue west or could it be pulled N or NE?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3612. xcool
hmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.


Will be interesting to see if it can survive the Yucatan.. we could see some 'mischief' once it gets into the BOC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
I found this kinda interesting as well:

Forecast for Campeche, MX

Afternoon...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.
Evening...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph. Changing to rain and overcast skies with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.

The winds have been blowing out of the east northeast at 20-25mph this afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3609. xcool
nice spin shortwaveloop .imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3608. xcool
from 1011 to now 1009mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.


vehrry interestink
shortwaveloop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3605. xcool
MississippiWx i agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Satellite presentation continues to improve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gotta look at it on satellite, there is anticyclonic flow on the NE and E sides
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Thanks nrt.

Guy's, I still don't see an upper level ridge over it. I see a diffluent flow aloft.



2015Z


Just a thought...I compared the 850mb vorticity maps from that website to the normal CIMSS website and they were different with the vorticity over the Yucatan. With the one you just posted, there was hardly any vorticity with the Yucatan disturbance, which is definitely wrong by looking at satellite imagery. The info from the map you just posted may not be entirely accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sebastianflorida:
****Bolded Selections were modified by me****

MY GUESTIMATE ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 2010 SEASON:

We are nearing the end of July, with already having two weaker type storms; this puts us on the above average side of climatology (technically speaking). Although, with all the 2010 pre hype, it appears slow and boring, althogh boring is good to most during any storm season.

I put the odds of squeeking out one more weaker type storm in July at 40%, something probably close to home.

August, especially beginning after the 7th, should be a lot less "boring". We will easily see more than one named system at a time that is being tracked. We definately will see a lot more red circles from the NHC; seems mom through away the other colors. I expect no less than six named storms in August, and could be as high as seven or eight(my guess 7). This would put us at eight to ten named storms by the end of August at a minimum.
September will be, and usually is the month to watch and perhaps dread during a storm season, this year should be especially painful to some in the U.S.. I anticipate no less than seven named storms during September, where there could be three storms going at once at some point. The named storm total I guess would be seven but could be as high as nine. This puts us at between 13 and 16 named storms by the end of September 2010.

October is usually the time during most seasons where things really begin to unwind storm wise. I expect this year to NOT follow suite. I see no less than four named storms forming in October 2010, and feel we could easily see five named storms. By this time all those predicting high numbers will be saying "I told you so" those predicting or changing their predictions to numbers under 15 will slither back into their holes. By the end of October we will have seen between 18 and 22 storms.

November should quiet down a lot, however one or two storms could still pop up; I expect one.

December is always much quieter in the tropics, and after our 2010 season, quietness will be welcome; as far as totals for December, possibly one storm, I guess Zero.

This puts us at between 19 and 23 storms for the 2010 storm season. My guess, 20 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 5 intense Hurricanes.

To guess regarding landfall locations, is a laughing matter; my cone covers all of North America, Central America, and Some of South America, and parts of Europe. But seriously, do to early season indications I would guess all points south of a line from Upper Texas Coast to North Georgia Coast need to be extra prepared to protect life and property this year.


Reasonable forecast. I still think we may get a tad bit less than 20 named storms this year but still close, probably 15 to 18 which still makes it a very active season and 8 to 10 hurricanes of which 3 or 4 are intense. Something like 2008, 2004 or maybe 1995. Not exactly like 2005, but way closer to 2005 than last year was to '05.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3597. xcool
Pressure: 1009
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3596. unf97
Quoting StormW:


Thanks nrt.

Guy's, I still don't see an upper level ridge over it. I see a diffluent flow aloft.



Good evening Storm.

You think the upper ridge NHC analyzed in the NW Caribbean has yet to move over the Yucatan disturbance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3594. xcool
Guess we'll find out soon .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3593. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F


With that pressure reading, no question there is something over the Yucatan that's trying to brew that's for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3592. xcool
MississippiWx welcome..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F


If a surface center is truly trying to form, this site should start seeing more northeasterly winds, then north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


It's possible it may be trying to, however, upper level winds are out of the NW, and mid level shear is about 15 kts. Waiting for the 18Z run of the shear forecast to see if things may change.


If you use the PREDICT website, you can get hourly updates of CIMSS products such as shear. Under Satellite Products -> GOES. Since this is a very new product can't vouch for it's validity, but it is a CIMSS product.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
MississippiWx see .that why i posting itt


Yeah, thanks for the website. Good stuff!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3588. xcool
:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3587. xcool
MississippiWx see .that why i posting itt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3585. xcool



nice Lower Convergence 40w & gom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3584. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:


On visible, it actually appears to have an anticyclone over at least the northeastern/eastern part of the system.


There is a upper level ridge present over the NW Caribbean, as indicated on the TWD by NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3583. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3582. xcool
New GFS delayed by one day July 28
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


It's possible it may be trying to, however, upper level winds are out of the NW, and mid level shear is about 15 kts. Waiting for the 18Z run of the shear forecast to see if things may change.


On visible, it actually appears to have an anticyclone over at least the northeastern/eastern part of the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3631 - 3581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.