Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2381 - 2331

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

2381. beell
Quoting chicotman:
levi32,will we have more tornadoes involved with the tropical storms this year?


But to get back to the original question, lol...I'd have to say, "I don't know!"

So, MH09 had a good answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2380. JLPR2
An interesting fact:

Carolina, PR has seen: 53.79in / 1366.3mm of rain until July 25, 2010

Carolina, PR during the entire year of 2009 got up to: 52.92in / 1344.2mm

So we have surpassed last year's precipitation in just 7 months. O.o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PowEDier7:
Good evening, all! Hey Levi, will the tropics come alive by the time that my B-Day comes rolling around?


What a coinkidink...That's about the b-day time of....never mind. Boy, it was hot and humid today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Which is when? Within 2-3 weeks they will start rolling fast yes.


August 11th. It falls on a Wednesday, if I'm not mistaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2377. xcool
MechEngMet .pines village
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually didn't know that about foreign dignitaries. Interesting. I'm not at all surprised, though.
Ehh, something I heard once. Could be bull...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2375. viman
Good evening everyone, whats going on except the heat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


I got up to 85*f a few times in my area.

If you average out in my area, it would be 78*F most of the time.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2373. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
not quite complete, levi. Eyewall mesovorticies are common spawning grounds of tornadoes near the core of a landfalling storm where friction can cause the mesovorticies to lend themselves to the ground and trigger outbreaks in a localised area.... per Andrew if I recall correctly


That also makes sense, though in the core of a hurricane the winds in the tornado would likely be no faster than the winds of the hurricane itself lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2372. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:
Good evening, all! Hey Levi, will the tropics come alive by the time that my B-Day comes rolling around?


Which is when? Within 2-3 weeks they will start rolling fast yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MechEngMet:
2337 KorieTM: Yes, you may ask. Zip 70002. Roughly south base of the Causeway. Was in 70122 for 19 years, 3 blocks from the London Av. canal break pre-Katrina. Grew up in 70126 across from the Bunny Bread on Downman rd. Lived most of my life within 6 mi area.


Ah, so you're in Metairie? I've been there before, though it's been four years. Assuming a hurricane doesn't interfere, I'm going to be there again on August 22.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, all! Hey Levi, will the tropics come alive by the time that my B-Day comes rolling around?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not quite complete, levi. Eyewall mesovorticies are common spawning grounds of tornadoes near the core of a landfalling storm where friction can cause the mesovorticies to lend themselves to the ground and trigger outbreaks in a localised area.... per Andrew if I recall correctly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2368. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The highest temperature during the entire week was only 81*F, compared to 90*F in February.
O_o


I got up to 85*f a few times in my area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good news here
Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not hardly.

So bad that foreign dignitaries get hazard pay in the summer. For being here.

How many of us wouldn't have a college degree and inside job if the weather was more comfortable more of the year? I can say I was motivated...


I actually didn't know that about foreign dignitaries. Interesting. I'm not at all surprised, though.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol..Wouldn't Fring be considered winter?


I believe that's his entire point. In southeast Louisiana, we don't often get winters, at least in the sense it is colloquially referred to (bitterly cold and snowy, and even during most of the cold winters here, the latter is almost always entirely exempt). Our typical transition period is around late October. Then it persists until about the middle of January. That's about it, on average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2365. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm more "tropics influenced" (LOL) that's why I was waiting for a correction. What you said makes sense though.


So am I lol. I rarely have to apply what I know to a severe weather outbreak because I don't usually cover them, so I'm a little fuzzy on some things in that area. Those gaps will hopefully get filled in during those technical college classes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2350 Xcool: What part of Downman Rd? Just give me landmarks (for obvious reasons)...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol..Wouldn't Fring be considered winter?


In Florida, is "winter" really "winter" as we know it? "Fring" might indeed be a more appropriate term... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2362. Ossqss
Howdy, good to see nothing major happening.

If your bored try this >>>

On the Science Channel as I type and interesting stuff :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Now that would have been really strange LOL, 70s in the summer? O.o

The highest temperature during the entire week was only 81*F, compared to 90*F in February.
O_o
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2360. Levi32
Quoting beell:


And a little more...
Normally found in the right front quadrant (with respect to forward motion) where PVA and helicity (counterclock-wise spin) is greatest.

They can also occur long after landfall-as long as there is an identifiable spin with the remnant low.


Ok thanks, makes sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MechEngMet:
2337 KorieTM: Yes, you may ask. Zip 70002. Roughly south base of the Causeway. Was in 70122 for 19 years, 3 blocks from the London Av. canal break pre-Katrina. Grew up in 70126 across from the Bunny Bread on Downman rd. Lived most of my life within 6 mi area.
Cool. My parents grew up in 70122.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2358. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Severe weather is one of my weaker spots, but tornadoes require a certain amount of wind shear and rotation of an individual supercell thunderstorm to form. That is why hurricanes typically do not have many because there is little wind shear near the core of the storm and the fast rotation of the storm does not allow individual cells to rotate much on their own.

I could be wrong but I believe tornadoes are generally more likely with the outer spiral bands of a hurricane if it is coming ashore under the influence of an upper trough that is recurving it, shearing it, and creating an unstable environment ahead of the storm where the outer bands are encountering upper divergence and colder air aloft from the trough, supporting supercell development.

That's just a guess...


And a little more...
Normally found in the right front quadrant (with respect to forward motion) where PVA and helicity (counterclock-wise spin) is greatest.

They can also occur long after landfall-as long as there is an identifiable spin with the remnant low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone! Not much in the tropics and have to wake up early. Buenas Noches!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


o_O

That is surprising, and a sharp contrast to what I was experiencing at the time. I was freezing my tail off in the midst of an unseasonably strong winter, the coldest in probably over a decade (though 2000 might have come close).

Actually, it was possibly hotter than I said. It was searing before I recorded the 90*F, and it cooled off slightly when I recorded it on a thermometer.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting JLPR2:


Well that is if you live close to the coast, you would have to drive quite a bit if you live in the mountains, but living in the mountains itself is good, since the higher you live the colder the temps, I live just 10 minutes form the beach, LOL! :D


Exactly. It's pretty much a win win situation for residents there, no matter where they live. Here, unless you have a swimming pool (which I don't, living in an apartment and all :/), you really can't keep cool unless the AC is on like 65F or lower.

And even swimming pools don't help if the water is too hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
doing research in the Lull .... anyon know where I can get a complete 2005 water vapor loop? All I can find is IR and that's not telling me enough about the UL in '05.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Always my favorite time of year, too! Fring is between Fall and Spring, right. (Sorry hydrus, couldn't let that one go)You gave us all a good laugh.


lol..Wouldn't Fring be considered winter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't even think that does it justice. :/
Not hardly.

So bad that foreign dignitaries get hazard pay in the summer. For being here.

How many of us wouldn't have a college degree and inside job if the weather was more comfortable more of the year? I can say I was motivated...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2351. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It would have been nice to feel those mild temps if there wasn't all of that storminess at my house.


Now that would have been really strange LOL, 70s in the summer? O.o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2350. xcool
MechEngMet I USE STAY ON Downman rd
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2349. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


o_O

That is surprising, and a sharp contrast to what I was experiencing at the time. I was freezing my tail off in the midst of an unseasonably strong winter, the coldest in probably over a decade (though 2000 might have come close).



Not to mention that you guys can dive into the ocean if you have to, which assists in cooling your body.


Well that is if you live close to the coast, you would have to drive quite a bit if you live in the mountains, but living in the mountains itself is good, since the higher you live the colder the temps, I live just 10 minutes from the beach, LOL! :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2337 KorieTM: Yes, you may ask. Zip 70002. Roughly south base of the Causeway. Was in 70122 for 19 years, 3 blocks from the London Av. canal break pre-Katrina. Grew up in 70126 across from the Bunny Bread on Downman rd. Lived most of my life within 6 mi area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, the cloud cover helped with that, since it blocked out most of the rays of the sun.

It would have been nice to feel those mild temps if there wasn't all of that storminess at my house.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2346. SLU
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I can't help but think if a storm tracked like that today (parallel to the northern Gulf for a time period), the Northcasters would go crazy on this blog. Just my gut feeling. Lol...


lol ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Severe weather is one of my weaker spots, but tornadoes require a certain amount of wind shear and rotation of an individual supercell thunderstorm to form. That is why hurricanes typically do not have many because there is little wind shear near the core of the storm and the fast rotation of the storm does not allow individual cells to rotate much on their own.

I could be wrong but I believe tornadoes are generally more likely with the outer spiral bands of a hurricane if it is coming ashore under the influence of an upper trough that is recurving it, shearing it, and creating an unstable environment ahead of the storm where the outer bands are encountering upper divergence and colder air aloft from the trough, supporting supercell development.

That's just a guess...
I'm more "tropics influenced" (LOL) that's why I was waiting for a correction. What you said makes sense though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2344. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'm with you. I hate all 10.5 months of summer. But that 1.5 months of Fring is awfully nice around here.


Always my favorite time of year, too! Fring is between Fall and Spring, right. (Sorry hydrus, couldn't let that one go)You gave us all a good laugh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hard to believe the first time this year the thermometer hit 90*F here was in February!


o_O

That is surprising, and a sharp contrast to what I was experiencing at the time. I was freezing my tail off in the midst of an unseasonably strong winter, the coldest in probably over a decade (though 2000 might have come close).

Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, ugly, we get to those index too, but being in an island helps, the sea breeze brings the temps down a little.
But heat index in the 100+ is my life from July-September LOL!


Not to mention that you guys can dive into the ocean if you have to, which assists in cooling your body.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thank you miami,I know some storms can really spin up,but others not so much.imo thats the worst part of a storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
1900


I can't help but think if a storm tracked like that today (parallel to the northern Gulf for a time period), the Northcasters would go crazy on this blog. Just my gut feeling. Lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2340. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, ugly, we get to those index too, but being in an island helps, the sea breeze brings the temps down a little.
But heat index in the 100 is my life from July-September LOL!



True that. I live in the tropics and I have no idea what even 95F feels like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2339. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

JLPR, Is it just me or did temps drop quite obviously last week in PR?


Yep, the cloud cover helped with that, since it blocked out most of the rays of the sun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2338. Levi32
Quoting chicotman:
levi32,will we have more tornadoes involved with the tropical storms this year?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not Levi... but I want to try and answer your question and then have Levi correct me, lol.

I believe that the amount of tornadoes matters solely on the tropical cyclone and can not be predicted. Of course with intense cyclones your bound to see tornadoes, but it can not be predicted.


Severe weather is one of my weaker spots, but tornadoes require a certain amount of wind shear and rotation of an individual supercell thunderstorm to form. That is why hurricanes typically do not have many because there is little wind shear near the core of the storm and the fast rotation of the storm does not allow individual cells to rotate much on their own.

I could be wrong but I believe tornadoes are generally more likely with the outer spiral bands of a hurricane if it is coming ashore under the influence of an upper trough that is recurving it, shearing it, and creating an unstable environment ahead of the storm where the outer bands are encountering upper divergence and colder air aloft from the trough, supporting supercell development.

That's just a guess...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MechEngMet:
Yes Atmo. Snow in NewOrleans two years in a row. Who would have ever believed it!? Growing up in this area we only saw snow every 8 to 12 years or so. NOW we get it two years in a row??!???

Darn that global Gore-ball warming. LOL


You live in Louisiana, too? Where, if I may ask? I'm in Prairieville, near Baton Rouge. Northern Ascension Parish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2336. xcool
i be suprised to seeing Snow again in LA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, ugly, we get to those index too, but being in an island helps, the sea breeze brings the temps down a little.
But heat index in the 100+ is my life from July-September LOL!

JLPR, Is it just me or did temps drop quite obviously last week in PR?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Levi32:


That's simply....hellish, for lack of a better word.


I don't even think that does it justice. :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2333. SLU
1900

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


That's simply....hellish, for lack of a better word.

Highest heat index values that I can remember off of the top of my head here in SETX was shortly after the passage of Hurricane Rita. It was late September (after the equinox even!), but just prior to Rita's passage on the 24th to almost to the end of the month, the temps exceeded 100*F, but the humidity was extreme. The heat index was well over 120*F for most of the area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Really?
So that's about three weeks from now.
Good. That should give me time to get my year launched (I work on the school calendar.)


Yeah, the summer is almost over for me too. I figure since the kids come back on the 23, things will really break loose in the tropice that week...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2381 - 2331

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.