Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2481. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, I guess so, in Alaska.

What if you started sweating while drying off after a shower, inside, in the AC? Go outside and play tennis? I don't think so...


Lol, I guess not, but I'd find a way :) They should have indoor courts down there, no?
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Quoting PowEDier7:
but you're still human.


From everything I have read on here...Palm Beach County is out of the mix of a major hit. Good News!
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2479. Levi32
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.

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Quoting SouthALWX:

How much is the devil paying you? Attorney fees must be .. hellish?
Snark!

Sry, just pointing out the possibilities in the absence of hard data, of which we have little.
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but you're still human.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Bordanaro, you have no medical insurance and you say you get medical care for next to nothing, then why are you going off on the doctors who took care of you? Beggers can't be choosers, holmes.

I know you are right. I did apologize to everyone, just real scared and very frustrated.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
And/or could be related to downbursts...

Just sayin'

How much is the devil paying you? Attorney fees must be .. hellish?
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Quoting Levi32:


I love Tennis.
Well, I guess so, in Alaska.

What if you started sweating while drying off after a shower, inside, in the AC? Go outside and play tennis? I don't think so...
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Still want to interject that we don't really know much about typical eyewall-vicinity tornado numbers...

I have a sneaking suspicion that they may be higher than is currently accepted but that's not important. we do know they happen and we do know thay they increase windspeeds in the eyewall. Thats all I was saying :)
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i see something in the p.ocean here to watch


The CMC was indicating tropical cyclogenesis south of Baja California in about six days yesterday.
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Quoting chicotman:
I believe it was an eyewall split? leveled a path from st landry parish to glenmora.snapped dozens of powerpoles and brought down the highline.
You talking Gustav? Or Andrew?
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2470. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:
levi, how can you even survive in temps that cold?


I'm an Alaskan.
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2469. xcool
RedStickCasterette/ no..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting SouthALWX:
A piece of an article on mesovortices ... no mention of a tornado but I wouldnt be surprised if that's what was occuring as this station reported from australia was automated.
http://www.onepetro.org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=OTC-10792-MS&soc=OTC

during a mesovortex event, gusts achieved gust factors of 2.27-2.75.
And/or could be related to downbursts...

Just sayin'
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2467. beell
Alrighty, it's troll time!
Later and g'night to mostly all and thanks to those that contribute to the Q&A.
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2466. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, for movement, I go do an indoor activity. Racquetball. Not sure how those tennis freaks survive it...


I love Tennis.
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2465. viman
Good night everyone, as always, thanks for info.
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I believe it was an eyewall split? leveled a path from st landry parish to glenmora.snapped dozens of powerpoles and brought down the highline.
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A piece of an article on mesovortices ... no mention of a tornado but I wouldnt be surprised if that's what was occuring as this station reported from australia was automated.
http://www.onepetro.org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=OTC-10792-MS&soc=OTC

during a mesovortex event, gusts achieved gust factors of 2.27-2.75.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Oh absolutely. Outer bands produce more, and more powerful tornados(though not as powerful I wouldnt expect as the combined effects of mesovorticy tornados and the eyewall itself)
Still want to interject that we don't really know much about typical eyewall-vicinity tornado numbers...
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Well, I have the early shift at work in the morning, so I should probably be going to sleep pretty soon here. See y'all later! This is probably the most enjoyable stint that I have been on this blog in a while.
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Quoting xcool:
MechEngMet I USE STAY ON Downman rd

I was on Houma Blvd. through junior high. Is that in the same area?
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Quoting Levi32:


That's simply....hellish, for lack of a better word.


Ha it is hellish. Thats why I stay inside, and get fatter lol from no activity outside, while I take my college break.

Its a nightmare!
Yeah, for movement, I go do an indoor activity. Racquetball. Not sure how those tennis freaks survive it...
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2457. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


Well don't visit this winter then lol....likely to be very very bad. I'll be having to walk to school on many -50F mornings, guaranteed.


I need a jacket when it gets to lower 70s, mid 60s I dont want to imagine -50*F
O.o
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I know they occur but I meant rarely compared to the outer bands of the storm, which produce them in much greater numbers.

Oh absolutely. Outer bands produce more, and more powerful tornados(though not as powerful I wouldnt expect as the combined effects of mesovorticy tornados and the eyewall itself)
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2453. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:
is it likely to pan out, in your view?


Maybe. Cape Verde season starts in August.
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2452. JLPR2
I'm feeling some Deja Vu 0.o

A TW's moisture is pushing the dry air forward, didn't we see this like two weeks ago?

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Levi32:


Good to know you folks in NOLA have at least seen the stuff that I have to live with 7 months of the year :)
Ehh, but not really...our temps just hovered around freezing. Any colder has to mean very dry, for us.

Though I have gone skiing with a high temp of 2, once. But that was UP Michigan.
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2450. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:


with your love towards tropical meteorology, you def. need to. were you born up there?


Yes and haven't left the same town lol. Only been out of state once for a week in rural ohio during the winter when it was snowing....not exactly different lol. I've never been in a city larger than Anchorage either.
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2449. xcool


nice
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JLPR2:


*high five*
XD
We share the same addiction. -.-


:D
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is it likely to pan out, in your view?
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i see something in the p.ocean here to watch
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2445. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


haha!
I would probably freeze up there. XD


Well don't visit this winter then lol....likely to be very very bad. I'll be having to walk to school on many -50F mornings, guaranteed.
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Quoting Levi32:


No clue. I'd probably melt lol, but I would like to experience tropical weather someday. At least a thunderstorm, or a tropical system.


with your love towards tropical meteorology, you def. need to. were you born up there?
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2443. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:
levi, did you notice how towards the end of the GFS 18z run, it shows two CV storms forming by the start of the second week of august, were you surprised by this?


Nope.
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2442. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


No clue. I'd probably melt lol, but I would like to experience tropical weather someday. At least a thunderstorm, or a tropical system.


haha!
I would probably freeze up there. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2441. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
I can promise you that there are infact tornados in the eyewall sometimes levi. I saw one in Ivan ... they can move incredibly fast, are hard to see, and the destruction is masked (as Atmo pointed out as I was typing the same thing a moment ago) The only difference in the aftermath is a swath of greater damage ... and thats assuming it doesnt get covered with water... These tornados are different than those associated with Cb. in fact, they more resemble suction vortices and waterspouts.


Yeah I know they occur but I meant rarely compared to the outer bands of the storm, which produce them in much greater numbers.
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For those that are interested, here is a great paper on Beulah and her 115+ tornadoes.

Link
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Quoting chicotman:
thanks to all for the input,seems more outer bands and stronger storms will be the worst.I lost a home to hurricane lili in oct.2002 when the train came through.scary stuff


Oh, so you're another Louisiana resident? Awesome! I didn't realize there were so many of you here. The more the merrier. :)

Lili was nothing for me. Some 50 kt gusts, but other than that, nothing to write home about. And those 50 kt gusts were confined to only the heaviest squalls. Generally, winds were less than that. I only lost power very briefly. Isidore was worse for my area.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Quoting Bordonaro:

For such a large and well equipped County Hospital, JPS is Tarrant counties (Ft Worth, TX) only Level 1 trauma hospital, they only have 2 vascular surgeons. AMAZING!! But there is nothing I can do as a human being to get them to speed up the process.

Believe me, I literally went off on the 5 doctors that took care of me.


Ha I can imagine! Can you go elsewhere or is it best to just wait it out? Seems like the meds you are on can help you hold out, if that makes sense.

Without medical insurance I sincerely doubt any for profit hospital will do anything but tell me," You are stabilized, patiently wait your turn at JPS for surgery"!!

To top things off, the 3 coronary arteries that supply the main blood supply to my heart are 20,30 and 40% blocked. They stated that it was not necessary to install stints in those blood vessels in my heart, stating the blockages were not critical.

And I asked the doctor's WHY I have tingling and sharp pains in my head and my left arm, and pressure in my chest for 15 days non-stop. Of course, they did NOT have an answer!!!
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I can promise you that there are infact tornados in the eyewall sometimes levi. I saw one in Ivan ... they can move incredibly fast, are hard to see, and the destruction is masked (as Atmo pointed out as I was typing the same thing a moment ago) The only difference in the aftermath is a swath of greater damage ... and thats assuming it doesnt get covered with water... These tornados are different than those associated with Cb. in fact, they more resemble suction vortices and waterspouts.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's simply....hellish, for lack of a better word.


Ha it is hellish. Thats why I stay inside, and get fatter lol from no activity outside, while I take my college break.

Its a nightmare!
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2435. Levi32
Quoting PowEDier7:


would you like to,? or do you perfer your cold climate instead? ^_^.


No clue. I'd probably melt lol, but I would like to experience tropical weather someday. At least a thunderstorm, or a tropical system.
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2433. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


The fact that I'm a heavy soda drinker only adds fuel to the fire. I know I know, that's not the smartest thing to do, but an addiction is an addiction.


*high five*
XD
We share the same addiction. -.-
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting PowEDier7:


would you like to,? or do you perfer your cold climate instead? ^_^.


Janiel...You would invite Levi to stay with you? I find that very kind of you.
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2431. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Over here, in Covington, we had a solid 6 inches in Dec 08. Stuck around for 48 hours, too.

Visible satellite image showed snow cover the next day for us, Hammond, and parts of S central MS.

That, I had only seen in the mountains and upper midwest.


Good to know you folks in NOLA have at least seen the stuff that I have to live with 7 months of the year :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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