Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Goodnight all. I had an enjoyable and educational evening here (until YKH showed up).

I'll check back in a few days to see what's up.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Keith B. is a friend.

(And a former Aggie)

He's a brilliant tropical analyst, but Im sure you know that ^_^
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On WV it looks like all the ULLs are simultaneously weakening? Must be an illusion?
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Quoting Levi32:


What day....lol.



28th.
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2526. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Levi, this might seem random.. could you post one of Jan, '86 for the same region.. particularly Florida.


What day....lol.

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2525. JLPR2
Quoting ElConando:


I'm sure he just wants to miss the beginning of school. I remember fay canceled the first two days of school of my senior year of high school.


That's interesting, I dont remember closed first day school days, yes in the middle, but never at the start.

Well PR usually sees storms in September, not that much in August.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Running joke. It used to be you had to be holding a fish to have an avatar without a shirt on.
Dude, I know...
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2523. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Nope, that was before I was born. I do know of that one though. One of the cold snaps we had this winter was the coldest one since then.

By the way, where do you get all of those cool anomaly maps?


That outbreak happened in November and was non-tropical. However, it did produce a high-end F4 that leveled Channelview and was rated the 7th biggest weather event of the 1900s by the NWS and the 3rd biggest weather event during Bill Read's tenure at the NWS HGX. As I mentioned earlier, the most intense tornado that I have ever seen from a tropical cyclone was the F4 that Hurricane Carla spawned on Galveston Island in 1961.


That one came from here
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Quoting SouthALWX:
my schedulae is kind of crummy this year come fall .... I did manage to fit in Dr. Blackwell's tropical discussion class in on Fridays though .... Will be great!
Keith B. is a friend.

(And a former Aggie)
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Quoting Levi32:
Lol, Miami isn't going to get leveled on August 23rd. Let's just wait and see.


I'm sure he just wants to miss the beginning of school. I remember fay canceled the first two days of school of my senior year of high school.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting atmoaggie:
Please?
Hmm, deja vu.


Running joke. It used to be you had to be holding a fish to have an avatar without a shirt on.
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Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.



Levi, this might seem random.. could you post one of Jan, '86 for the same region.. particularly Florida.
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my schedulae is kind of crummy this year come fall .... I did manage to fit in Dr. Blackwell's tropical discussion class in on Fridays though .... Will be great!
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Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.

Nope, that was before I was born. I do know of that one though. One of the cold snaps we had this winter was the coldest one since then.

By the way, where do you get all of those cool anomaly maps?

Quoting RedStickCasterette:


That happened in the Houston area in the 90's. Several tornadoes wiped out a subdivision in Channelview, which is east of Houston.

Crazy!

That outbreak happened in November and was non-tropical. However, it did produce a high-end F4 that leveled Channelview and was rated the 7th biggest weather event of the 1900s by the NWS and the 3rd biggest weather event during Bill Read's tenure at the NWS HGX. As I mentioned earlier, the most intense tornado that I have ever seen from a tropical cyclone was the F4 that Hurricane Carla spawned on Galveston Island in 1961.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yup that's what happens for you guys in the southeast during a cold PDO. Alaska is often the opposite of the SE US during the winter. We were very much warmer than normal this past winter, for example.


In Tallahassee there was a four month period where the temperature did not crack 80. That almost never happens. Miami-Dade county had snow flurries this past winter.

Funny thing is the Fall of 09 was not that cold in Tallahassee then all of a sudden I come back up from winter break and its freezing (for me at least).
From what I've been told in La nina years the fall is colder than normal while the winter is warmer and only slightly cooler than the fall.

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting Levi32:


For sure....a cold flow in Anchorage comes from the interior mainland, and sometimes means downsloping off the mountains which results in a much drier cold, while the same cold flow comes off the water into Kenai, resulting in more moisture in the air.


Well I just know I want to go back, if not to live there, but just to see more.

Breathtaking!!! Almost claustrophobic since I am use to flat, open areas. The drive from Anchorage to Kenai was incredible but felt closed.

Then saw "grizzly adams" lol walking through the wilderness and a small building that said "bar", like an outhouse. We got lost in the wilderness and about out of gas. Crazy!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I was responding to JFV. He moved his cone of disaster from Miami to West Palm.


No, don't tell me he's near me now!!!!!!!!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For God's Sake...Put a shirt on!!!!
Please?
Hmm, deja vu.
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2509. JLPR2
Quoting PowEDier7:
you too, jp? cool, but, bad timming, :(


XD Tell me about it and my 1pm-7pm schedule is torturing LOL, at least I got Fridays free. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well until after Thanksgiving anyway ;)


For God's Sake...Put a shirt on!!!!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
your doing the right thing for yourself bordanaro,maybe some action in the west carib next weekend IMO

That area keeps looking healthy. Although we are in a downward MJO, for the moment, the W Caribbean region keeps firing up some real healthy convective outbursts. By Aug 5th, things are going to get real, real interesting off of Africa. Enjoy the break, it will not last forever :o)
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay.

Yeah, sounds like mesovortecies, with the inner eyewall passage.

But, this part bugs me, a little.

"Additional evidence for the mesovortex theory was seen in the relative humidity measurements. A sudden dip occurred in the near-saturated relative humidity at Barrow at the time of the lull between the two sets of extreme gusts. This may have been caused by a sudden subsidence such as would be expected to occur within the core of a mesovortex."

Wouldn't that also support downbursts, possibly more so than mesovorticies?

taken alone, yes. But as a group of evidence I think it helps the mesovortex argument ... circumstantial evidence if you will.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I'm not so sure about that.


I was responding to JFV. He moved his cone of disaster from Miami to West Palm.
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Quoting MechEngMet:
2479 Levi: I do recall that cold snap. In town we didn't get lower than the low 20'sF. I stated earlier that the lake keeps the south shore much warmer than the north shore.

If the north shore saw 12F then New Orleans saw ~22F.

Yeah. We do almost always have a low about 10 F cooler than you guys when in a cold snap. Closer to 5 F cooler during the summer nights, but not always.

But, during the day, we sometimes are a little warmer than y'all, too.

Big difference from 30 miles away...thanks to Lake Heatsink.
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Quoting Levi32:
Lol, Miami isn't going to get leveled on August 23rd. Let's just wait and see.

I hope your right ... the flush model thinks otherwise... No amount of shower curtains can save you if it turns out right ... run for teh hills ... (which are a long away away and running at average human speed .... *pulls out a calculator* ..... leave .. in 47 seconds and you will make it to south georgia in time)
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2498. JLPR2
Quoting PowEDier7:
levi, I know that you arent a physic or anything like that, but do you think that i'll be able to start off my fall 2010 term on august 23rd?


You start on the 23rd too? Cool XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
your doing the right thing for yourself bordanaro,maybe some action in the west carib next weekend IMO
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Quoting SouthALWX:

well you could atleast read the article first =P the things that are fun to talk and learn about are the things we dont already know right?
Okay.

Yeah, sounds like mesovorticies, with the inner eyewall passage.

But, this part bugs me, a little.

"Additional evidence for the mesovortex theory was seen in the relative humidity measurements. A sudden dip occurred in the near-saturated relative humidity at Barrow at the time of the lull between the two sets of extreme gusts. This may have been caused by a sudden subsidence such as would be expected to occur within the core of a mesovortex."

Wouldn't that also support downbursts, possibly more so than mesovorticies?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From everything I have read on here...Palm Beach County is out of the mix of a major hit. Good News!


I'm not so sure about that.
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2493. Levi32
Lol, Miami isn't going to get leveled on August 23rd. Let's just wait and see.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
whats up bordanaro???,you can quote me on it,lol....

Sorry, I am on meds that make me "a space cadet".
I am thankful for their awesome service and help, just scared. Well, I quit smoking on Monday, cold turkey, got my meds and going to stick with my cardiac diet!
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2479 Levi: I do recall that cold snap. In town we didn't get lower than the low 20'sF. I stated earlier that the lake keeps the south shore much warmer than the north shore.

If the north shore saw 12F then New Orleans saw ~22F.
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These are pretty vigorous. Constant rumble, here, and I'm 20 miles away from the nearest cell.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
A few. I know of a couple in Baton Rouge, anyway.


There's one in Gonzales, as well. Not sure how often you visit that area, though.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting MechEngMet:
Regarding Tornadoes and TCs: An otherwise relatively benign storm came through some time in the 90's. Not much damage to speak of, except it spawned a rather large tornado. I think it might have been an F-3 by the damage it did. It (the 'nado) took out almost a complete subdivision of fairly nice homes. I think it hit in St.John parish somewhere West of Kenner. I wish I could recall more.

Perhaps some others on this blog could shed more light from their memories of that event.

The above just to let you know that some TCs can and have shed some awful tornadoes.


That happened in the Houston area in the 90's. Several tornadoes wiped out a subdivision in Channelview, which is east of Houston.

Crazy!
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Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.

Of course. Only time I ever walked on a sizable body of water down here. The LSU lakes froze well enough around the edges.

Also, refineries built in SE LA around 1910 did not have pipes intended for those temps...boom.
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hurricane lili oct2002.cat4 dropped to cat 2 100 miles offshore.came in over pecan island se of me.
Im not real good at the blogging
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Snark!

Sry, just pointing out the possibilities in the absence of hard data, of which we have little.

well you could atleast read the article first =P the things that are fun to talk and learn about are the things we dont already know right?
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whats up bordanaro???,you can quote me on it,lol....
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol, I guess not, but I'd find a way :) They should have indoor courts down there, no?
A few. I know of a couple in Baton Rouge, anyway.
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2481. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, I guess so, in Alaska.

What if you started sweating while drying off after a shower, inside, in the AC? Go outside and play tennis? I don't think so...


Lol, I guess not, but I'd find a way :) They should have indoor courts down there, no?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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