Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


49 degrees here and raining lol.


49 degrees and rain does not exist in Miami.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Met Service of Jamaica website

July 25, 2010 at 5:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the northern Caribbean. Weak Tropical Wave east of of Jamaica. C

CommentHigh Pressure Ridge is expected to build across the central Caribbean and Jamaica.
Trough across the western Caribbean.

24-HOURS FORECAST
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
Tomorrow… Mainly sunny morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorm
over western parishes. Windy along the south coast.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tues… Mostly sunny mornings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
mainly across western parishes and hilly inland areas elsewhere.
Wed/Thurs…Partly cloudy mornings over northern parishes.
Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms especially
over western parishes.

Regionally…Tropical wave to move rapidly across Jamaica.
High Pressure Ridge to dominate until late Tuesday.


pef
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Looks to be a busy season.
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2578. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


What setting did you use for the Daily climate composites?


Um there's a lot of settings lol. Play around with them.
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2577. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I know you said you've never experienced 80F weather. Well, it's 11:15pm and it's 79F, heat index of 83F and a dew point of 77F! LOL. In the dog days of summer, it's never comfortable outside here.


49 degrees here and raining lol.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's what happens with reversing El Ninos, and wow, that is dang cold for the gulf coast!


What setting did you use for the Daily climate composites?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
2575. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
2574. JLPR2
Oh noes I killed the blog!
XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
2573. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I know you said you've never experienced 80F weather. Well, it's 11:15pm and it's 79F, heat index of 83F and a dew point of 77F! LOL. In the dog days of summer, it's never comfortable outside here.


I can top that XD
Its: 81.8°F
Heat Index: 90°F
Dew Point: 77 °F

Our dew points are the same! XD
Ah... summer ...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I was a junior in HS when the Challenger blew up. No one told us anything, but there were rumors. Found out the whole deal when I got home.


I was born almost exactly a month after Challenger, my dad did tell me stories about it though. Said people where crying who didn't even know the crew.
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2571. xcool
RedStickCasterette .i don't remember sorry
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course. Only time I ever walked on a sizable body of water down here. The LSU lakes froze well enough around the edges.

Also, refineries built in SE LA around 1910 did not have pipes intended for those temps...boom.


Hmm think we got snow that year in Houston. Not much but was nice.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
2569. Levi32
Quoting AussieStorm:
Did anyone notice we have 99L?


Yeah but we don't care because, well, it's over land lol. Odd that they designated it this morning after it was already inland. They could have at any other time over the last 2 days when it was over water. Yet more rain for Mexico which is very bad for them.
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Did anyone notice we have 99L?


Why has this been designated as an invest. Talk about pumping the numbers up, gesh.
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Quoting xcool:
RedStickCasterette/ no..


no, what?
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
Quoting Levi32:


That's what happens with reversing El Ninos, and wow, that is dang cold for the gulf coast!


Yeah, I know you said you've never experienced 80F weather. Well, it's 11:15pm and it's 79F, heat index of 83F and a dew point of 77F! LOL. In the dog days of summer, it's never comfortable outside here.
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One of those days we will all remember where we were when it happened:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Challenger very darn near made it, the O-Rings failed as soon as the boosters ignited but aluminum got stuck in one of the failing booster rings called 'O-rings', it got knocked out when Challenger hit a sharp area of shear about 30,000 in the air. Several airline pilots reported high turbulence at that altitude flying near the launch pad and noted Challenger still on the pad thinking that the wind shear was the reason Challenger was still grounded.

Almost wasnt close enough sadly =( I dont know enough about the event to speak much about it but I do know there were alot of irate indivuals who were angry about the go ahead with the less than optimal weather.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Quoting Bordonaro:

Without medical insurance I sincerely doubt any for profit hospital will do anything but tell me," You are stabilized, patiently wait your turn at JPS for surgery"!!

To top things off, the 3 coronary arteries that supply the main blood supply to my heart are 20,30 and 40% blocked. They stated that it was not necessary to install stints in those blood vessels in my heart, stating the blockages were not critical.

And I asked the doctor's WHY I have tingling and sharp pains in my head and my left arm, and pressure in my chest for 15 days non-stop. Of course, they did NOT have an answer!!!


Oh that's scary but I think you will do okay and come through it. I just wonder what they are thinking? Perhaps better to wait than the risks of surgery or stents on the others?

The DR at JPS said the protocol states any blockages <60% are not stinted. He also checked the renal arteries feeding the kidneys and they are clear.

The chest pressure and tingling in my left arm may be related to the catoroid blockage, but they're not real sure. They believe I will be ok as long as I take my meds and remain calm.

So far, so good, BP is where they want it and I am pretty relaxed.
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2559. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
Hey, Levi.

That cold outbreak you mentioned in 1989 was incredible. It actually froze part of the marsh areas of Mississippi and Louisiana and killed a lot of fish.

This past winter was very cold for our standards and half of my lake froze over. Really amazing that we have gone from so cold to so hot.


That's what happens with reversing El Ninos, and wow, that is dang cold for the gulf coast!
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2558. JLPR2
September PR Hurricanes:
Notice the pattern? XD

Hugo 18th
Georges 21st
Jeanne(TS) 15th
Marylin 16th
Hortense 10th
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
2557. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi the day before was one of the few times we had a convincing imitation of south Alaska weather during the winter.

The snowy day.


LOL 1027mb pressure? What the heck was going on that day. Otherwise, perfect! Average winter day for me :D
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Quoting SouthALWX:

NASA: note to self, icicles plus space shuttle = boom. got it. I still dont understand how they could see that and still go through with it. We learned alot that day .. the biggest thing being that it's easier for something to go wrong than everything to go right.


Challenger very darn near made it, the O-Rings failed as soon as the boosters ignited but aluminum got stuck in one of the failing booster rings called 'O-rings', it got knocked out when Challenger hit a sharp area of shear about 30,000 in the air. Several airline pilots reported high turbulence at that altitude flying near the launch pad and noted Challenger still on the pad thinking that the wind shear was the reason Challenger was still grounded.
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2554. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
Hey Levi. Have you ever seen a raindrop? It's like snow. Except melted. You'll know it when you see it.


Lol, plenty....I've been through flooding, which is rare here :P
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I think N-G introduced that one to us...or maybe Bowman.

I've seen N-G use it before, but I don't think he's given out the link while I was there. Either that, or I wasn't paying attention. Did you know he has a blog on the Houston Chronicle website? You should check it out sometime if you haven't already. If anyone is interested, here it is!

Wow, I'm really bad at leaving when I say that I am..... XP
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Hey, Levi.

That cold outbreak you mentioned in 1989 was incredible. It actually froze part of the marsh areas of Mississippi and Louisiana and killed a lot of fish.

This past winter was very cold for our standards and half of my lake froze over. Really amazing that we have gone from so cold to so hot.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, temps got very low that night in Florida too. This formed on the space shuttle launch pad. The rest of course, is history

NASA: note to self, icicles plus space shuttle = boom. got it. I still dont understand how they could see that and still go through with it. We learned alot that day .. the biggest thing being that it's easier for something to go wrong than everything to go right.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Without medical insurance I sincerely doubt any for profit hospital will do anything but tell me," You are stabilized, patiently wait your turn at JPS for surgery"!!

To top things off, the 3 coronary arteries that supply the main blood supply to my heart are 20,30 and 40% blocked. They stated that it was not necessary to install stints in those blood vessels in my heart, stating the blockages were not critical.

And I asked the doctor's WHY I have tingling and sharp pains in my head and my left arm, and pressure in my chest for 15 days non-stop. Of course, they did NOT have an answer!!!


Oh that's scary but I think you will do okay and come through it. I just wonder what they are thinking? Perhaps better to wait than the risks of surgery or stents on the others?
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We had snow flurries the day before the Space shuttle blew up. At 11 am.


Yea, temps got very low that night in Florida too. This formed on the space shuttle launch pad. The rest of course, is history. I've never seen so many icicles in Florida, at least not this big.

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Hey Levi. Have you ever seen a raindrop? It's like snow. Except melted. You'll know it when you see it.
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2545. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


My old house, Christmas Eve morning, 1989. On St. Simons.





Wow, awesome! =)
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>Quoting Levi32:


Good to know you folks in NOLA have at least seen the stuff that I have to live with 7 months of the year :)


Would do anything to live in that!!!!!!
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
Let me see ....
Snow talk ... in the south ... in July .... must be a slow period in the hurricane season amirite?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Thanks for that link! And on that note, I think I'm going to go for good now. Catch y'all later! :)
I think N-G introduced that one to us...or maybe Bowman.
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Quoting Levi32:


Pretty cold there too...



Wow, that's astonishing. Thanks for posting, I've always wanted to see the temps for that day. One of the saddest days in American history and one of the main reasons was because of those temps..
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Over here, in Covington, we had a solid 6 inches in Dec 08. Stuck around for 48 hours, too.

Visible satellite image showed snow cover the next day for us, Hammond, and parts of S central MS.

That, I had only seen in the mountains and upper midwest.


Oh and yes, in '08 we had a ton in Baton Rouge. Stayed on the ground for a couple days. Again, it was strange, Texas got flurries and we got inches. Seems to work the opposite with them.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
2536. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Was that the day of the Challenger?


Yeah..
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Quoting Levi32:


That one came from here

Thanks for that link! And on that note, I think I'm going to go for good now. Catch y'all later! :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


28th.

Was that the day of the Challenger?
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2533. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


28th.


Pretty cold there too...

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Over here, in Covington, we had a solid 6 inches in Dec 08. Stuck around for 48 hours, too.

Visible satellite image showed snow cover the next day for us, Hammond, and parts of S central MS.

That, I had only seen in the mountains and upper midwest.


It was funny because right before a good snowfall here, I think in January?. family had gotten heavy snowfall in Houston. I was jealous because we just got a few flurries here. Maybe it was Dec.

Anyway, later, we had a big snowfall in like Jan or Feb and it was the opposite for them. Same thing the prior year.

Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
Goodnight all. I had an enjoyable and educational evening here (until YKH showed up).

I'll check back in a few days to see what's up.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.