Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2631. xcool
,ECMWF,next
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2am discussion: dry and stable. Well, it is the lull in July. The ocean is continuing to get warm.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH
SATELLITE DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN
A BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD
OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ALSO...THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A REGION OF
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...NO DEEP CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 12N20W 10N30W 8N40W 9N50W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2629. xcool
yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2628. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
go page 40 to read


Yeah, the wave has a nice 850mb vort with a swirl, it just needs to shake off the SAL it has absorbed to get going.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2627. xcool
go page 40 to read
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2626. xcool
1985. Weather456 10:19 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Low level African wave

The wave is easily depicted on visible satellite imagery as cyclonic turning within the mid-low level dry and stable airmass associated with SAL. This is not the typical mid-level waves found near the axis of the AEJ further south. Rather, it is a complex association between a mid-level wave that interacted with the thermal trough over the Saharan Desert.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Just ITCZ right now.
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2624. JLPR2
What are you guys talking about, there's no convection with any of the waves, the ITCZ is trying to fire a little but it hasn't managed that much.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2623. xcool
2am no yellow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The last update at 8 had waves at 20 and 40, with nothing at 30. The next update is in about 17 minutes.
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2621. wxhatt


Also been marked for poss. TC formation.
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2620. xcool
cirrocumulus .Let's Wait and See & i hope nhc put yellow on wave to tomorrow.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
xcool saw the Atlantic wide view and it looked kind of quick to develop unnoticed. Saw the Middle Atlantic visible loop you posted also.
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2618. wxhatt
Quoting cirrocumulus:
wxhatt: There seems to be some organization in that wave and it seems like it is in a good spot for now. A little weak for the Eastern Caribbean and shear unless it gets organized a lot by 50.


For sure, I've seen them come all the way from Africa (as Levi said), fight shear, SAL, and still come to life in the west Atl.
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2617. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2616. xcool
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

go here..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


There was a lead up to it....I just didn't post it out of the blue. I took it off.


oh ok. Did not realize that. Like I said, no hard feelings. :)
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xcool: They're scarier when they're all alone like that. They seem to be ready to develop. Especially with the small areas of convection in different directions farther out from the wave.
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2613. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is that vort. off of Africa worth watching?


Certainly. If you remember it closely resembles what Bonnie looked like when she came off....a nearly cloudless swirl of low pressure but very well-defined and fairly high up in latitude. She remained that way until 60W when she interacted with the TUTT and blew up. This one will have to be watched for a similar increase in convection once it gets farther west.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


No hard feelings. I just know it is very upsetting to the people who saw it first hand. It is very different then just seeing it on TV I am sure.... I just didn't see the reason to be bringing it back up. We all remember and will never forget. Whether there is a video or not.


There was a lead up to it....I just didn't post it out of the blue. I took it off.
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wxhatt: There seems to be some organization in that wave and it seems like it is in a good spot for now. A little weak for the Eastern Caribbean and shear unless it gets organized a lot by 50.
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2610. xcool
wxhatt /keep eye on wave .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You cannot change history...no matter how painful it is...Thanks SSIG


No hard feelings. I just know it is very upsetting to the people who saw it first hand. It is very different then just seeing it on TV I am sure.... I just didn't see the reason to be bringing it back up. We all remember and will never forget. Whether there is a video or not.
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The Central Atlantic looks like a wave is getting more organized. It's in a good protected position from some of the SAL. Shear is lower also.
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2607. wxhatt
yea xcool, I see it has some convection firing also. Def 1 2 watch...

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Is that vort. off of Africa worth watching?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I like the video--thanks for putting it up GeoffreyWPB!

And wow, xcool, I see the Mali monster just at the edge....


You cannot change history...no matter how painful it is...Thanks SSIG
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2604. xcool



nice wave at 30w
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I took it off. This is not only a weather blog…but a news-breaking blog. I learned of Haiti’s earthquake on here….Michael Jackson’s death on here. If this blog was here on 9/11….do you think bloggers would have ignored what had happened?
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2602. wxhatt

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Y'all should remember this....Christmas Eve 1989. Lows of 5 degrees Fahrenheit in central Louisiana, 11 degrees near the mouth of the Mississippi south of New Orleans, 9 degrees in the west panhandle of Florida.

i remembe...that was the last time i saw snow here in tallahassee
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2600. xcool
JLPR2 oh i;m duck
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting PowEDier7:
ok, talk about opening up a can of worms. i cannot be on here, any longer for tonight, because of this. i'll be back on tomorrow at some point during the day. have a good night, everyone! levi, thanks for answering all of my questions.


Plz quit creating new usernames. Plz quit coming on the blog. See? Not going to happen, is it? Why should anyone do what you want them to do. Poof goes your 5 millionth name.
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2598. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ?


the one inland
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2597. xcool
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The video was fine. No harm to these eyes WPB, hiding from it and averting your eyes doesnt change it. You didnt have to click "play" either Janiel. As far as being off topic, your comments saying it was off topic were off topic. If you dont like it flag it or if you are nice, PM the OP to remove it.
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2594. xcool



just Little convection


We Are All
watch this wave .cmc ngp gfs

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2593. JLPR2
The next wave seems to be a little too high up, no?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Coming up next...the Zapruder film....I'll wait til JFV signs on again.
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Quoting PowEDier7:
why did you have to post that video, wpb? i was down there that morning, :(. was this called for?


So was I Janiel...It took me 14 days to get back down to Florida. I saw it first hand.
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2588. wxhatt
Quoting Levi32:


It hasn't even gotten down to the mid-levels.



Ok, I see, just something to watch...
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Quoting PowEDier7:
why did you have to post that video, wpb? i was down there that morning, :(. was this called for?


yeah, I was not there. But, we all remember it. We don't need videos. This is a weather blog.
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2586. wxhatt
It seems to be void of any more dry air and fully moistened up.

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2585. Levi32
Quoting wxhatt:
Has anyone noticed the ULL SW of Florida? It looks as though it may be working it's way down to the surface becoming a warm core.



It hasn't even gotten down to the mid-levels.

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My old avatar started to bug me.. figured 3 years of the same avatar was 'noff.
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2582. wxhatt
Has anyone noticed the ULL SW of Florida? It looks as though it may be working it's way down to the surface becoming a warm core.

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Quoting Levi32:


49 degrees here and raining lol.


49 degrees and rain does not exist in Miami.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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