Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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RJT185....WU Mail
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Quoting StormW:


That had a lot of good info in it.


It's a great resource for the Carribean....I wish they did one for the Cenrtal Atlantic but they cover that area really well when viable waves start approaching the area that have model support for development....They will probably be very busy come late-August into September.
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2678. RJT185
Good Morning Yinz! Hoping it stasy quiet long enough for the folks at the Deep Horizon site to once and for-all cap that sucker.

In other news, on Saturday it was warmer in my current hometown (Pittsburgh, PA) than in my birthplace (Ponce, PR) I was highly amused.
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2677. tkeith
Quoting StonedCrab:
Morning fellow lurkers
StoneCrab if they ever do a poll on the best avatar on WU...yours has my vote...lol

That thing cracks me up :)
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2676. SLU
Quoting sebastianflorida:
THE BLog Today...
NO SIGNIFICANT Blogging IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE Blog. SURFACE
insults DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A Few Knuckle Heads
HIGHLY Likely To See OVER Hyping The WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR AND Far Can Be Found Across The BOARD
1028 Bloggers Might Be HIGH NORTH OF Post 1000 NEAR PROVIDING FAIR Entertainment
ACROSS THE AREA.


lol
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5355
Morning fellow lurkers
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2672. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Exactly. They need to in the next 14-20 days. And the outlook is good in the GOM...if you believe the GFS, through Aug. 11th.
by my count that's 17 days Ike...Go GFS!
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2671. tkeith
mornin...back at work... *sighs* :)
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2670. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Good news in the tropics...for now.

Hopefully BP and the Coast Gaurd will get the DWH well killed during this window of opprotunity.



Exactly. They need to in the next 14-20 days. And the outlook is good in the GOM...if you believe the GFS, through Aug. 11th.
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morning tkeith
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2668. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD
1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

This is some really good news over one's first cup of coffee.... lol.

Now if it could only last until the end of the first week in August, life would be good...


There's a decent chance it will make it.


Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Storm, Ike, wwb, hope all are well this am.


Morning!
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2667. tkeith
Good news in the tropics...for now.

Hopefully BP and the Coast Gaurd will get the DWH well killed during this window of opprotunity.

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THE BLog Today...
NO SIGNIFICANT Blogging IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE Blog. SURFACE
insults DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A Few Knuckle Heads
HIGHLY Likely To See OVER Hyping The WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR AND Far Can Be Found Across The BOARD
1028 Bloggers Might Be HIGH NORTH OF Post 1000 NEAR PROVIDING FAIR Entertainment
ACROSS THE AREA.
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2665. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


Yep. That would be Senior Chief. (GMCS)


Sorry, SENIOR Chief... Or in Miami, Señor Chief... Thanks for the update, regardless.
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2660. StormW 7:48 AM EDT on July 26, 2010

Thanks Senior Chief......I won't be posting too much analysis on here anymore but I figure that posting factual data from official sources from time to time should keep me out of trouble.....I really don't need the aggravation...... :)
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Good morning all.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD
1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

This is some really good news over one's first cup of coffee.... lol.

Now if it could only last until the end of the first week in August, life would be good...
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Terrible day for Cozumel

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Good morning Storm, Ike, wwb, hope all are well this am.
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00z ECMWF has a strong wave arriving at the Leewards by day 10.

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Good Morning...Carribean discussion from NCEP:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
626 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES AREA NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF 60W. THIS IS STEERING SHORT WAVE VORTICES TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH PERTURBATIONS
PROPAGATING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS GENERATING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN FORMATION OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION OVER AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THROUGH 54-60 HRS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW TROUGH ALOFT TO REPOSITION OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES...MANIFESTING AS A NARROW SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 60-66 HRS...INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A PERTURBATION IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ENTERS
THE BASIN AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THEY ARE TO REMAIN ABOVE 50MM THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN BRIEFLY DROP THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN.

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS SHOW A TYPICAL WET SEASON PATTERN...WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE USVI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTION OF PR. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES. THE GFS IS THE MOST ACTIVE/OPTIMISTIC...WITH
ONSET OF CONVECTION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NAM AND
EXPERIMENTAL/PARALLEL GFS SHOW MOST ACTIVE ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE DRIEST...TAKING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. ESTABLISHING THE TIMING IS GOING TO BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER NAM/PARALLEL GFS SOLUTIONS...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SHOWN A WET BIAS WITH RESPECT TO ONSET OF ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION FROM JUL 23/0000 UTC. NOT ISSUED.
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2656. IKE
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

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2654. SQUAWK
Quoting Dakster:
GOOD Morning Master Chief StormW!

Still think this will be a very active August coming up?


Hey Storm, aren't you going to correct him and tell him you are only a Senior Chief.
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2653. IKE
Glad to read you're getting cooler weather up there. I'm looking forward to it here in about 2 months.
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THE BIG COLD FRONT HIT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THE TEMP WAS 84F ON SUNDAY NIGHT NOW THE TEMP IS A VERY COOL 62f at 7am in the morning.. wow that was a big cold front for us this time a year..
Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
2651. IKE
How often do you see this on a tropical weather discussion?

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD
1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N27W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
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Quoting JLPR2:
The next wave seems to be a little too high up, no?
its will start to move to the wsw later.
Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
morningan area of disturbed weather is trying to gel on a tropical wave at 37W. there is a mid level cyclonic turning at 11N 37W. the area is south of an area of dry air to its north, the developing area is within a shield of moisture which will help in further development. SST in the area is about 29 degC and shear values are within conducive ranges. the wave is moving west at 15mph and bears watching the next few days.
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2647. Dakster
GOOD Morning Master Chief StormW!

Still think this will be a very active August coming up?
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2645. msphar
Peace in the tropics. Sweet! I got three days to get this phase of boat project wrapped up. Then back to the desert. Life is good.
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Morning Homeless
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Bordanaro, you have no medical insurance and you say you get medical care for next to nothing, then why are you going off on the doctors who took care of you? Beggers can't be choosers, holmes.

I know you are right. I did apologize to everyone, just real scared and very frustrated.

WOW! I can't believe someone would say something so crass. Funny bread I can't find your post to quote. Hopefully you had a twinge of conscience and removed it. Oh, and Bread, it's beggars not beggers, Genius! Don't worry about the jerks out there Bob. Take care. I hope it all goes well for you.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Highest heat index values that I can remember off of the top of my head here in SETX was shortly after the passage of Hurricane Rita. It was late September (after the equinox even!), but just prior to Rita's passage on the 24th to almost to the end of the month, the temps exceeded 100*F, but the humidity was extreme. The heat index was well over 120*F for most of the area.


That was killing heat. Much cooler after Ike. So before you decide to stay home remember weeks on end with no electricity and hellish heat can kill you as surely as the winds and water. Just slower.
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looks like the 1st atlantic born storm could be forming ... over the last 6hrs... on the leading edge of moist air rolling off africa....
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2640. xcool
yeah
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Quoting xcool:


Is it north of PR in that image, XCool?
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2638. xcool
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2637. xcool
yepECMWF shows cv 240hr
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Since we're in a temporary lull in the Atlantic, I decided to resume my entries on Louisiana's hurricane history. Here's the next entry, detailing the second in a series of three hurricanes that made landfall in southeast Louisiana during 1860
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The long range ECM is showing a CV storm as well.
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Quoting truecajun:
when i left the house this afternoon, i saw service master trucks in one of the neighborhoods near my home. i was shocked, but the local met said bonnie dropped 7 inches of rain here. our local sheriff says he's not looking forward to what the rest of hurricane season has to bring. his home was flooded sunday morning. many of the homes in his neighborhood had four inches of rain inside.


Somehow I doubt Bonnie produced anywhere near 7 inches of rain. 3 if we're lucky. More likely 1 to 2, and only in isolated areas.
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when i left the house this afternoon, i saw service master trucks in one of the neighborhoods near my home. i was shocked, but the local met said bonnie dropped 7 inches of rain here. our local sheriff says he's not looking forward to what the rest of hurricane season has to bring. his home was flooded sunday morning. many of the homes in his neighborhood had four inches of rain inside.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
2632. xcool
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2631. xcool
,ECMWF,next
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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