Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
2 "ayes" o "nays"..so far..

Um I pick maybe... hehe whats the question?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
2730. breald
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SST anomalies continue to moderate compared to a month ago in the MDR with most of the region <2°C. The GOM and areas around Florida have actually decreased. Big increases in the NorthEast, good to see ocean currents doing their job transporting heat out of the tropics.

June 19





July 24



The thing people don't realize is the NE, see's more hurricanes and storms than some parts of FL.

With the water temps being high in the NE, if a storm does come up this way, it could strengthen, instead of weaken
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Quoting StormW:


Morning Orca!


Morning Storm... it also shows a possible system in the S Caribbean in the next week.. on one model.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
2 "ayes" o "nays"..so far..
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2726. EtexJC
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Quoting Bordonaro:

For such a large and well equipped County Hospital, JPS is Tarrant counties (Ft Worth, TX) only Level 1 trauma hospital, they only have 2 vascular surgeons. AMAZING!! But there is nothing I can do as a human being to get them to speed up the process.

Believe me, I literally went off on the 5 doctors that took care of me.


Ha I can imagine! Can you go elsewhere or is it best to just wait it out? Seems like the meds you are on can help you hold out, if that makes sense.


Mother Francis and East Texas Medical Center in Tyler, are two of the best hospitals in all of Texas, check them out...
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Morning all :)
I see we have model consensus on a system coming off CV in 126-140 hours.

Models
Good morning Orca! Also notice the "home-grown mischief" Levi is referring to by the northern eastern seaboard.
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Well, It is only July and I'm not a forcaster and I know it isn't gonna be busy for a few more weeks. I don't think anything is on "snooze", just a normal season so far.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Vote! Who wants to see JB this morn?
Yes or No?
Warning! Not for the faint of heart!

Oh yeah, and whats that in Carrib?
*Thinks*...Joe Bastardi, eh...HECK YES! LOL!
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Morning all :)
I see we have model consensus on a system coming off CV in 126-140 hours.

Models
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Vote! Who wants to see JB this morn?
Yes or No?
Warning! Not for the faint of heart!

Oh yeah, and whats that in Carrib?
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Quoting whs2012:


Well, yes, if a TS doesn't cause any damage or destruction then yes it is sorry. Why couldn't just have been called a tropical wave? The effects still would have been the same. Miami, a few days ago, there was a squall of tropical moisture that came into the Houston area with 50+ mph winds! I think we should have gotten a TS warning before Florida did lol. And Dakster, to the point, we haven't seen anything, truly serious since Alex. And that was about a month ago, so mother nature didn't JUST go into snooze. She's been in snooze for a while.
LOL. It can't be called a tropical wave because it had a closed surface circulation, organized convection, and winds in excess of 39mph. And "mother nature being in a snooze", yeah, that's not true.
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Morning.
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2715. tkeith
Quoting tkeith:
StoneCrab if they ever do a poll on the best avatar on WU...yours has my vote...lol

That thing cracks me up :)
Dang Ike,StoneCrab has still got ya beat...but now you're a close second...lol.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
wow does the blob off Cancun have any type of Low Pressure with it? It looks like it has great outflow and no shear... or is it involved with a ULL... anybody? thanx
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2710. Dakster
Quoting whs2012:


It's been hit for a month now! Lol (minus the sorry for a TS, Bonnie)


Yeah, the "sorry TS" still made me have to get ready for a storm though... Even though it was nothing more than a strong afternoon thunderstorm it had the potential to be much worse.

Better to have it and not need it, then need it and not have it... Although the next get ready for a storm drill will be easier now.
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Quoting whs2012:


It's been hit for a month now! Lol (minus the sorry for a TS, Bonnie)
What's your point? Bonnie was a tropical storm however you put it. Just because it didn't cause destruction or damage doesn't mean it's a sorry excuse for a tropical storm.
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All's quiet on the eastern front.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
Quoting IKE:


Zeppelin...Link

In the days of my youth, I was told what it means to be a man,
Now I've reached that age, I've tried to do all those things the best I can.
No matter how I try, I find my way into the same old jam.
............................................






^^^^^^^


Already near 84 degrees at my location this morning.
Some of the best music every written. Just a few years before I could enjoy it as a teen but sure am enjoying it now
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SST anomalies continue to moderate compared to a month ago in the MDR with most of the region <2°C. The GOM and areas around Florida have actually decreased. Big increases in the NorthEast, good to see ocean currents doing their job transporting heat out of the tropics.

June 19





July 24

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
2702. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Whoa Ike! new avatar!


Zeppelin...Link

In the days of my youth, I was told what it means to be a man,
Now I've reached that age, I've tried to do all those things the best I can.
No matter how I try, I find my way into the same old jam.
............................................



Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Zepplin.....Circa 1969.



^^^^^^^


Already near 84 degrees at my location this morning.
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2701. Dakster
Good. Someone hit the snooze bar for mother nature. Maybe get a couple of weeks rest now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good morning.

Mornin' MH09.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Action:
Quote
| Ignore User



LOL
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Quoting aquak9:
Whoa Ike! new avatar!


Zepplin.....Circa 1969.
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2696. Hhunter
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Good morning.
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
Quoting IKE:


The entire planet is in snooze-mode.


Snooze-mode is good to those of us who are continuously being rocked & rolled ever so gently in southern California!
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Worst Season Ever

or maybe Best depending on how you look at it....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. As of Mon 26 Jul 2010 12:45:01Z


Good morning, everyone.
Certainly is calm although Western parts of the Caribbean are feeling it.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
2689. aquak9
Whoa Ike! new avatar!
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2688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Mon 26 Jul 2010 12:45:01Z
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2687. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
99L.INVEST
East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
(T.C.F.A.Cancelled)

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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2686. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
I slept well, but I see that Snoozefest 2010 continues.


The entire planet is in snooze-mode.
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2685. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.....


ya gotta have somthin', if ya wanna blog with me!!

good song, Ike.



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2684. aquak9
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing.....


ya gotta have somthin', if ya wanna blog with me!!

good song, Ike.
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With Stormw'S TEXT DISCUSSION and Levi32's video discussion on the future tropical activity you are well informed of what the next 3 months will be like!


Quoting StormW:


Yes, I do.

REMAINDER OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON ACTIVITY PREDICTOR / SIGNALS
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Good Morning.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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