Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2780. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update July 26th. 2010


Quiet for awhile in the ATL.
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Quoting A4Guy:


2004 - the year that produced Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne....had charley named on August 9. "Quiet" June and July does not mean quiet season - 2005 is an extreme anomaly.

2005 really was an anomaly. Mother nature was furious and merciless. 2005 was probably a once in a century event.
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Quoting StormW:


Still doing analysis on and off. But, if it's there, it'll be in my synopsis.


FWIW, we're getting more wind and more rain from this current blob than we did from the blob that eventually became Bonnie.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

3 cyclones. 2 storms. 1 hurricane. $1.29+ billion in damages. 53 people dead. Not a really slow start if you ask most bloggers.
Best post of the week. +5.
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JB this morn. part2


MONDAY 8:30 AM
TOP 5 JULY SOI IN THE WORKS!

Not since the days of the cold PDO have we seen a July SOI reading as high as what we are going to have this month. The ultimate La Nina of 1950 had a reading of 19.6, 1955 had 16.6, 1975 had 19.6 all cold PDO years. In fact if one looks when the PDO was warm, it cant compete with the years of the cold PDO. The current running 30 day number is 16.98. This is on pace to be a top 5 obviously and the biggest June to July rise in at least 60 years!

Now, we have NOAA, with all their warmest ever, which if we simply look t objective satellite measurements can see is not true, though if you do what they are doing.. trying to line up what is going on now with the way they adjust temps, is true, telling us we are in a La Nina watch. Well this private sector forecaster has had the La Nina watch from Feb and the warning it was coming from March, okay. I cant believe they cant see what the heck is coming.

In addition this will show the folly of their hurricane idea being based upon the La Nina. First of all there should have been no doubt by May it was coming on, and yet they said there was. Secondly there was no La Nina in 2005, there was in 1975. How do you explain 28 storms in 2005 and only 9 in 1975? They scream about how warm it is globally and in the US, yet how did they not even see summer would be warm? How is it the guy who is screaming we are going the other way overall ( me) sees the warm summer, and they dont.

Why am I doing this. Well first of all I believe most of the people that work in government are great hard working people. But look at history, especially war, which can teach a great lesson. How many people died because of the errant leadership that sent them into battle with a misguided idea. There seems to be a great move afoot, and you can look at their press releases, to make the public believe they are all knowing and all powerful. And of course the danger, is that people point that out. With the collapse of the East Anglia CRU unit, which by the way does not see this as warmest ever, as a source, and the ignoring of objective satellite data, it has left NOAA as the main source with the bullhorn for trying to convince the public that they are the source for information. So as another source, I am going to fight that.

But how many of you out there, didnt know the La Nina was coming by the time they issued that watch. And now, you would have to be pretty dogmatic not to see this global temp crash that is coming. And my mission is to forecast this stuff before other people do, and to hammer away at NOAA when they dont, and then proceed to issued edicts from on high declaring ideas that are at best debatable, and at worst, border on despicable. If you see the facts in front of you, and are exposed to the information, then you ARE SMART ENOUGH TO JUDGE FOR YOURSELF.


You know, there is a movement afoot to wipe out the past not only in government, but I see it here with my alma mater.. While I have stayed above board on the AGW situation at PSU, I believe what is front of us will end the AGW debate.. for after the nina driven collapse, the cold PDO and the start of the erosion of the warm amo means global temps will drop overall for the coming decades. The argument will be blown away like a cheap set of lawn furniture in an F5 tornado. You cant keep screaming natural variation, when your forecast from 10 years ago, or 20..said it would be consistently warmer. The fact is the coming drop in temps will exceed the rise from before the nino and we will watch this happen. So the simplistic view of many of us old timers, is going to win out. This I believe. But its like this all over. I see it in the PSU athletic dept too, and it has personally affected me with my wifes job. 25 years coach and athlete, blown away for "new blood". One sees it with NOAA, rewriting data and then telling you this, an of course revisionist history, the height of arrogance ( assuming that you would have done different 100 years ago, so let me tell you why they were such scoundrels) runs rampant too. But in the weather, those of us in love with the weather, should stand for what we believe is true. And that is what I mean to do, in every forecast I have a hand in, and if proven wrong, then I will admit it and correct my error.

There is nothing wrong with using the past to advance into the future, there is no future though in trashing the past to advance ones agenda.

Call me old , or whatever, but certain truths dont change, not matter who wants to change them.
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JB this morn. part1



MONDAY 7 AM


Blame George Bush!


He has to be the cause for Al Gore and John Kerry making outrageous statements about the state of the arctic ice cap. Seriously, what else can it be. Both of them totally go off the deep end on the melting ice cap, dont seem to look at anything that is going on now, or for that matter have anyone advising them that the global temp drop ( I notice NOAA, still in their La nina "watch" is not saying boo about that.) that is coming is going to not only increase the ice cap up here in the north, but have temps bottom out perhaps as low as where they were after Pinatubo back in the early to mid 90s. Now how are you going to justify the drop in temps to levels as low or lower than the late 90s, perhaps back to the early 90s, with the 7% increase in c02 since then ( .35% caused by humans) if co2 is the cause of the problem?

In any case, here is the article link:

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845

I always laughed at the idea of Bush Derangement syndrome. However both these guys make outrageous climate statements and both of them lost to the former president in the last election. Perhaps this needs to be looked into more.

In all seriousness, what Sen Kerry ought to do is look more closely at the data and what is coming. It diminishes the good he can do in the public arena when he makes statements like that without any plausible defense ( see how nice I am about giving the benefit of the doubt) In any case the free site will have the Monday global sea ice/temp report on it, so that the actual data is on it. That link is :

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi

ciao for now
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like we might see something by the 31st or so. Looks interesting. Thoughts MH09? Senior chief bud sir?
Definitely got model support for our first CV system. I would like to see the eastern Atlantic moisten up a bit to really get the CV action going. What we are seeing now is impressively well-defined low level easterly waves emerge off of Africa, lose all their convection due to the dry and stable air that surrounds it, make its trek across the Atlantic, and then blow up when it makes it into a moist environment. Now that SAL should begin to subside as we make it into August I wouldn't be surprised to see our first CV system in the next 14-21 days the latest.
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Quoting whs2012:


Uggh... Yeah I do! 1 TD (that some people are questioning), 1 worthless TS, and 1 Hurricane is not an all active season! And don't compare this year to 2009, because 2009 was extremely quiet!


May I mention that Alex was the second deepest hurricane on record in the month of June? How about the fact it killed more people than Hurricane Dean did and the entire 2009 and 2006 hurricane seasons combined? How about the fact it caused more damage than the entire 2009 and 2006 hurricane seasons? If anything slow, its you.
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2772. 7544
morning all watching the blob in north carb. is the ull in the gulf pulling ti north ward if so could it try to develope when in the northern gom tia
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JB last eve.


SUNDAY 10:30 PM

AMAZING IGNORANCE FROM A US SENATOR.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845

In it, John Kerry, Massachusetts Senator, says the arctic will be ice free in 5-10 years.

Astounding. Truly Amazing. I wonder if he moved his yacht from Mass to Rhode Island to escape faster rising waters in the Mass bays, or perhaps because its due to the taxes he had to pay if docked in Massachusetts. It better not be docked in Newport, me and another climate realist are golfing there Saturday and a few errant shots could wander at the boat.

In any case, given some of his statements, that could be a plausible reason.. fear of arctic ice melt raising sea levels. After all Newport is more like Scotland, probably would take more melt to get the boat up.

Earth to sen Kerry. You can take the boat back to your state and help the tax base. The Ice cap will increase the next 2 years, and overall it is starting its recovery with the descent of the global temps. A look at the difference between 07 and now would tell you that.

When is someone going to hold guys that make statements like this to account?

Looks like I wont be invited on to that yacht for a 19th hole event.

By the way, someone mail the good senator this link http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

In his world, and increase is a decrease anyway, but to the rationale you can see how much more ice there is now than in 2007 and both next year and the year after will have even more..that is my forecast ciao for now ****


SUNDAY 7:30 PM

SHADES OF THINGS TO COME?

Amazing story about Peruvian cold

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361111&CategoryId=14095

I have never seen such a thing. Looks a bit extreme to me
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Tropical Update July 26th. 2010
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

3 cyclones. 2 storms. 1 hurricane. $1.29+ billion in damages. 53 people dead. Not a really slow start if you ask most bloggers.


+1
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6-1 for. Democracy in action! Stand by!
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Quoting whs2012:


Uggh... Yeah I do! 1 TD (that some people are questioning), 1 worthless TS, and 1 Hurricane is not an all active season! And don't compare this year to 2009, because 2009 was extremely quiet!
But it's July, we aren't even half way, so you can't consider it a bust (which it won't be) or an active season, YET. I don't know why you would question TD #2 when it was obviously a TD. I also don't know why Bonnie was worthless. I also think that in post-season analysis 92L will be classified as a tropical storm.
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2765. A4Guy
Quoting whs2012:


Uggh... Yeah I do! 1 TD (that some people are questioning), 1 worthless TS, and 1 Hurricane is not an all active season! And don't compare this year to 2009, because 2009 was extremely quiet!


2004 - the year that produced Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne....had charley named on August 9. "Quiet" June and July does not mean quiet season - 2005 is an extreme anomaly.
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Quoting whs2012:


Uggh... Yeah I do! 1 TD (that some people are questioning), 1 worthless TS, and 1 Hurricane is not an all active season! And don't compare this year to 2009, because 2009 was extremely quiet!

3 cyclones. 2 storms. 1 hurricane. $1.29+ billion in damages. 53 people dead. Not a really slow start if you ask most bloggers.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alright, this is what we're looking at this morning.

00z ECMWF shows a strong tropical wave off Africa 120 hours out, doesn't really do anything with it but shows it.

GFS operational shows a strong wave/weak TD off Africa at 168 hours.

GFS para shows a strong wave with a 1010 mb low by 132 hours.

NOGAPS has a TD by Central America and off Africa by 84 hours

CMC shows some sort of low/wave thats pretty strong by 144 hours.


Looks like we might see something by the 31st or so. Looks interesting. Thoughts MH09? Senior chief bud sir?
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah!
But Doug, before you do, I would like the "Doubting Thomas's" to tell me what this indicates?



To put it simply. Guess where this isn't going?

Boy look at that! GFS has backed off significantly with the strength of the downward motion. And that upward motion ain't going anywhere past Octant 3, look at it meandering try to get back to Octant 1 or 2.
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Mornin Ike! You forgot 4) All of the above!
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2759. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
3-1 for...we gotta put a time limit on this thing say 10 more mins?


Oh...he'll say August 1oth on....watch out!


DUH!

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Alright, this is what we're looking at this morning.

00z ECMWF shows a strong tropical wave off Africa 120 hours out, doesn't really do anything with it but shows it.

GFS operational shows a strong wave/weak TD off Africa at 168 hours.

GFS para shows a strong wave with a 1010 mb low by 132 hours.

NOGAPS has a TD by Central America and off Africa by 84 hours

CMC shows some sort of low/wave thats pretty strong by 144 hours.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We've actually have had a category 2 hurricane that was 1mb shy of be the strongest June hurricane in history. We've also had tropical depression #2 and Bonnie. Also, if anything the NHC should bump up the wind speeds of Bonnie instead of degenerating it to a tropical depression. I remember seeing countless SFMR observation reporting tropical storm winds, there also was a vortex message suggesting winds of 50mph, but the NHC went conservative and only bumped it up to 40mph (it was 35mph previously).

If you call that a snooze...wow.

Post season upgrade?
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2755. tkeith
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
5-1 for...
make it 6...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
3-1 for...we gotta put a time limit on this thing say 10 more mins?
We got 6 now.

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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5-1 for...
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Okay notice The difference between now and Aug 20. The storms will come. We just aren't into the meat of the season yet. Enjoy the calm before the storms.
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Quoting StormW:


Still doing analysis on and off. But, if it's there, it'll be in my synopsis.


Check the one south of it also... Bobbsey twins.
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3-1 for...we gotta put a time limit on this thing say 10 more mins?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning trouble :)
Wow, nobody usually calls me by my middle name here....LOL
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2747. breald
Quoting A4Guy:


YES


Yes bring on JB!! I like him
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2746. IKE
I'll guess with Joe....

(1)He's either bashing someone.
(2)Downplaying GW.
(3)Building up the rest of the 2010 Atlantic season...as if climatology doesn't tell all of us Colon will be here before September.
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Quoting Orcasystems:

When the blog is slow.. I would rather see JFV then JB :) he has a tendency of lighting things up pretty quick.
LOL!
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Quoting msgambler:
Morning Orca


Morning trouble :)
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2742. A4Guy
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Vote! Who wants to see JB this morn?
Yes or No?
Warning! Not for the faint of heart!

Oh yeah, and whats that in Carrib?


YES
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Noooooooooo! Pick yes! Pick yes! LOL.

When the blog is slow.. I would rather see JFV then JB :) he has a tendency of lighting things up pretty quick.
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OK!! anybody noticing the blob off Cozumel?? is it involovedwith any type of low pressure or what? ULL? just curious.. StormW - You got any insight on this little blob?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


JB is that weather guy I assume..
I pick no :)
Noooooooooo! Pick yes! Pick yes! LOL.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
check post 2719


JB is that weather guy I assume..
I pick no :)
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Quoting whs2012:


Okay. Well, we've only had 2 storms (really just 1), and next Sunday will be august 1! SO FAR, she has been in snooze mode. And there probably still won't be any development through the first week of august! So if that's not enough for you, then I don't know what is. And as for TS Bonnie, the NHC needs to really do some re-examination on her, and she should be downgraded to a TD.
We've actually have had a category 2 hurricane that was 1mb shy of be the strongest June hurricane in history. We've also had tropical depression #2 and Bonnie. Also, if anything the NHC should bump up the wind speeds of Bonnie instead of degenerating it to a tropical depression. I remember seeing countless SFMR observation reporting tropical storm winds, there also was a vortex message suggesting winds of 50mph, but the NHC went conservative and only bumped it up to 40mph (it was 35mph previously).

If you call that a snooze...wow.
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Morning Orca
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check post 2719
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A lot of people on here are going to be singing a different tune shortly, enjoy the week of quiet instead of bragging about the season being slow and or you being right about the season being slow because whatever forms, I assure you it won't stop. Not this season. We're already ahead of 2009 with 2-1-0 compared to 0-0-0.

GFS para 240 hours out.. looks like a tropical cyclone similar to Ivan riding the ITCZ.


We're going to see Colin eventually.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
2 "ayes" o "nays"..so far..

Um I pick maybe... hehe whats the question?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.