Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3681 - 3631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

3681. xcool
July 2010
24th-27th. Scattered showers, then clearing. Showery Texas east.
28th-31st. Hot. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.


August 2010
1st-3rd. Gusty winds, showery New Mexico, Texas, parts of Oklahoma.
4th-7th. Mostly fair, hot.
8th-11th. Rain Texas. Gusty winds Southern Plains.
12th-15th. Fair, turning unsettled.
16th-19th. Pleasant.
20th-23rd. Fair, then showers Southern Rockies east.
24th-27th. Fair weather gives way to unsettled conditions over Southern Rockies. Hurricane threat along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Thunderstorms move through Texas east.


September 2010
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Mixed bag for holiday: Windy through New Mexico. Scattered showers from Texas east, then fair.
8th-11th. Severe thunderstorms extend from Southern Rockies through Southern Plains, tornadoes possible.
12th-15th. Clearing, pleasant.
16th-19th. Turning unsettled, showers over Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, then fair.
20th-23rd. Fair weather, then scattered showers, thunderstorms Southern Rockies.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3680. xcool
July 2010
24th-27th. Showery.
28th-31st. Hot, widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.


August 2010
1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Showers/thunderstorms, turning mostly fair.
8th-11th. Scattered thunderstorms, then fair.
12th-15th. Pleasant.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms Tennessee east to Carolinas, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Hurricane threat.
28th-31st. Scattered thunderstorms.


September 2010
1st-3rd. Thunderstorms clear Atlantic Coast, turning pleasant.
4th-7th. Potentially stormy Labor Day weekend, with a hurricane threat.
8th-11th. Pleasant.
12th-15th. Thunderstorms Tennessee east.
16th-19th. Rain showers.
20th-23rd. Mostly fair.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3678. xcool
1936 JUST LIKE 2010
IMOIMOIMO

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What does the old farmers almanac say about tropical systems in the coming weeks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am going to try and do this for all systems this year... that I am awake for :)


Vortex plots for Alex


Vortex Plots for Bonnie
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3675. xcool
earthlydragonfly YES 850 mb 5,000 feet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:
Guys I know this isn't weather related, but it is pretty important, and since nothing is going on this blog anyways, can I ask. What do you guys think about the 92,000 classified documents leaked from the military? The news said that some of the documents, can increase our risk of terrorist attacks significantly!
I read about this today. Pure irresponsibility or someone helping the terrorists to make it easier for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:




Now the yellows and the reds on this reflectivity show that there is more happening (lower pressure?) at the 850 mb or very close to the surface of the earth?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3672. xcool



anticyclone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3671. scCane
Well looks like the storm are done for my area moving east of me. I wonder if I'll get slammed again tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow.. the EPAC has not seen one named storm this month and last month had a Category 5.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23907
3669. xcool



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


Now the yellows and the reds on this reflectivity show that there is more happening (lower pressure?) at the 850 mb or very close to the surface of the earth?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3667. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Landcane over Texas!!! OH nooooo Kerry was right! LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3665. guygee
Global Tropics Hazards/Benefits Assessment - Climate Prediction Center - Issued: 7/26/2010 (pdf)
Week 1 Outlook – Valid: July 27 – August 2, 2010
1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for areas of the Indian Ocean. The progression of the MJO and numerical forecast guidance support drier-than-normal conditions in this area. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for from India to Southeast Asia to the western North Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO, developing La Nina conditions, and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: High
3. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for waters near the Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above-normal SSTs, and areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for parts of the western Pacific. Developing La Nina conditions and numerical weather forecast guidance support suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Pacific. Subseasonal variability and weak vertical wind shear should allow for an increased threat of tropical development. Confidence: Moderate

Week 2 Outlook – Valid: August 3 – 9, 2010
1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for areas of the Indian Ocean. The progression of the MJO and numerical forecast guidance support drier-than-normal conditions in this area. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for from India to Souteast Asia to the western North Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO, developing La Nina conditions, and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: High
3. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for waters near the Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above-normal SSTs, and areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Pacific. Subseasonal variability and weak vertical wind shear should allow for an increased threat of tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for parts of the eastern Pacific and Mexico. The progression of the enhanced phase of the MJO and numerical weather forecast guidance support suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3664. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening!


Good evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


LOL....

But, isn't he also your brother?

The CMC is rather aggressive in terms of predicting cyclogenesis.


Aye.

It can be good for track, though. In most cases.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3661. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3659. xcool
Yucatan Pressure: 29.82 Falling
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3658. Dakster
Quoting ElConando:


Yep it even developed my cousins son.


LOL....

But, isn't he also your brother?

The CMC is rather aggressive in terms of predicting cyclogenesis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3657. unf97
Thanks Storm for that map update. Looks as if an anticyclone indeed is trying to move in over the Yucatan disturbance from the east.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bjdsrq:


192 hours... um, ok.


ECMWF is pretty reliable even long range like that if it shows strong consistency. It nailed Alex, Bill, Fred, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23907
3655. xcool
keep eye AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3652. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
3651. unf97
Quoting scCane:

I haven't seen any damage but I've heard plenty of sirens going off and smelled smoke outside. So I'm assuming there's some damage somewhere around here.


Yeah, looking at satellite imagery, very impressive convective tops across South Carolina. Yeah, lots of severe weather today across that state.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3650. xcool
StormW yeah anticyclone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3649. bjdsrq
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)


192 hours... um, ok.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just checked in for the day...any potential for development in the GOM?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3646. scCane
Quoting unf97:


Apparently, that was a rather impressive downdraft burst from an intense thunderstorm cell. Hurricane force gusts! Hope there wsn't much damge in your area.

I haven't seen any damage but I've heard plenty of sirens going off and smelled smoke outside. So I'm assuming there's some damage somewhere around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3644. unf97
Quoting scCane:
Wow just some strong storms here in the midlands of SC. One storm just had an estimated wind gust of 80 mph in Irmo.


Apparently, that was a rather impressive downdraft burst from an intense thunderstorm cell. Hurricane force gusts! Wow. Hope there wasn't much damage in your area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3643. scCane
Wow just some strong storms here in the midlands of SC. One storm just had an estimated wind gust of 80 mph in Irmo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Meh. I'd wait on the GFS.


Like to point out, the ECMWF has been developing a Caribbean system since 12z the 24th.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23907
3641. Walshy
.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Alone the CMC is completely worthless, however its jumped on board with the ECMWF gives it a little more merit.


Meh. I'd wait on the GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


Yep it even developed my cousins son.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3638. unf97
Quoting ElConando:


Wouldn't it techinally be better for it not to develop a surface circulation until it gets into the BOC?


Well, for the obvious reasoning that once it gets over the open waters of the BOC, the odds of it developing would be better for it. However, the upper level environment overall certainly isn't exactly perfect for the system either, so any development would be slow. But, the pressure reading at 1009 mb at Campeche is respectable, so whatever is there at the mid-levels is trying very hard to reflect at the surface. This is simply a feature out there we can observe rather than be bored during this temporary lull we are in at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS para 18z 'kinda' shows the ECMWF's systems.. weaker however.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23907
Quoting unf97:


Yep. For now, it's just a surface trough. But, we at least can watch it and see what this feature does if it remains intact once it enters the BOC.


Wouldn't it techinally be better for it not to develop a surface circulation until it gets into the BOC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.


Alone the CMC is completely worthless, however its jumped on board with the ECMWF gives it a little more merit.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23907
3634. xcool
interesting to see soon get in water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.


Yep it even developed my cousins son.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3632. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
Winds at Campeche switched around to ESE, which would not support any evidence of a surface reflection.


Yep. For now, it's just a surface trough. But, we at least can watch it and see what this feature does if it remains intact once it enters the BOC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And Danielle maybe too.. 12z ECMWF has a 1000 mb low in the Yucatan Channel and another system right behind it.




That's certainly a possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3681 - 3631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy