Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


Usually...if you're at least 75-100 miles from where the center crosses a coast...you'll be safe from a hurricane. You may/should get tropical storm conditions(35-50 mph winds), but you'll be okay. The problem is...it may be too late sometimes before you know.

I can jump in my car and get that far away from any storm.

I've done it for Opal...Ivan....Dennis.....with no problems at all.


I was at my parent's house in Ocala when Frances came by and a tree nearly fell on their house a little nerving to say the least, of course after 2004 folks in Ocala learned that they can be effected by tropical systems.
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2830. Times2
I am assuming the activity around the Yucatan is nothing? Any comments.
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2828. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it was a tropical storm, most weak tropical storms can be considered "worthless" as it doesn't do much more than bring some rain and a couple gusts. As for me, I didn't consider Bonnie worthless whatsoever.

With what I put in bold I do agree 100%.
I am glad it was weak, if it had been a major hurricane, a lot of South Florida and coastal Louisiana would be having serious problems right now. The oil disaster recovery efforts would have been sidelined for a longer period of time also. That Florida-Louisiana track can be a devastating one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20520
2827. IKE
To any and all....ask yourself this question....how many so called experts predicted an average start to the season? June and July? If most of these experts had said that, the uproar over the "slow start" wouldn't be near as loud.

And yes...it's loud from what I've read and heard.
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Quoting whs2012:


In 2008, there were 2 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes by this time! In 2006, we had 4 tropical storms by this time! In 2005, we had 4 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes by this time! In 2003, we had 2 tropical depressions, 2 tropical storms, and 2 hurricanes by now! Must I go on? We had 1 depression, 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane right! Not really in comparison to past years. So, how is this NOT a slow year thus far? Thanks!


Sorry this is very late but these kinds of posts annoy me greatly. And by this time in other years 2009 had one tropical depression, 2007 had two tropical storms, 2004 had NOTHING, 2002 had one tropical storm, 2001 had one tropical storm, 2000 had NOTHING, 1999 had one tropical storm, and 1998 acquired its first tropical cyclone on this day. I also must add these are all in an upward phase of the AMO. So with 2010 already ahead of all these years how is this a slow year? Besides the most important part of the season is still to come.
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2825. 7544
could the yucatan system develope ??
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Quoting IKE:


Most of ZEP's songs sound better in studio vs. live anyway. Just my opinion. Yeah, I would have loved to have seen them live.

Another hot, sultry day, here in the Florida panhandle.


Ike…yes indeed…heat indexes on the coast of 98 to 103…110 inland…low level moister…great…

I certainly agree with you 100 percent on studio vs. live…very few can replicate studio work without tapes/CD’s/samples…I ought to know…I am a musician…

v/r

Jon
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Yes some of Zep best work was very subtle hard to here in a concert.
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Quoting claire4385:
If I saw there was a Cat. 3 heading my way...I would be long gone. And I live about 50 mi. inland :-/


Same here. We stayed for Dennis (my first storm here in Florida) here in Panama City and he scared the heck out of me. I was caregiving for my Mom who was paralyzed from a stroke and bedridden at the time. Trying to evacuate would have been a nightmare.
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2820. IKE
Quoting Eagle101:
Good Morning WU, Ike, Senior Chief, Patrick…

All’s quite in the ATL…that is good to see…hopefully…BP will surprise us all and get this job done…ASAP…
Excellent new avatar Ike…sadly, I was never able to see them live, my wife was however…I was/still am most envious for sure…
Thanks for the excellent blog Senior Chief…you are quite amazing for sure…I know you have heard it a million times…but thank you for your insight…

v/r

Jon



Most of ZEP's songs sound better in studio vs. live anyway. Just my opinion. Yeah, I would have loved to have seen them live.

Another hot, sultry day, here in the Florida panhandle.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I presume you mean our explosion on Xmas eve.

It was a design miss. We didnt have a safety valve on a line between the refinery and a unit across the river. It is called a thermal safety. I forget the order but someone blocked the line across the river a day before, we blocked it the night before. It was cold enough that you didnt get more vapor that the pipe pressure could hold.

The minute it started to warm, vapor formed. That morning caboom happened.

The complex was in a lot of trouble before that.

But you are right - USGC plants arent designed with temps that cold in mind.

Never fear, no BR XOM engr is allowed to work without studding the '89 explosion so we understand how important it is to think outside the box when a design is settled on to make sure it is covered on any sort of issue.

Aha. Someone very familiar.

My pop is a ME at Chems, but had a unit in the refinery near the blast at the time.
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2818. 900MB
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update July 26th. 2010


Good stuff, dude! Thanks!
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Did anyone notice a pattern that started in 2004? Because the pattern seems to go active, active, inactive, active, active, inactive and so on with 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. If so, shouldn't 2010 be active?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course. Only time I ever walked on a sizable body of water down here. The LSU lakes froze well enough around the edges.

Also, refineries built in SE LA around 1910 did not have pipes intended for those temps...boom.


I presume you mean our explosion on Xmas eve.

It was a design miss. We didnt have a safety valve on a line between the refinery and a unit across the river. It is called a thermal safety. I forget the order but someone blocked the line across the river a day before, we blocked it the night before. It was cold enough that you didnt get more vapor that the pipe pressure could hold.

The minute it started to warm, vapor formed. That morning caboom happened.

The complex was in a lot of trouble before that.

But you are right - USGC plants arent designed with temps that cold in mind.

Never fear, no BR XOM engr is allowed to work without studding the '89 explosion so we understand how important it is to think outside the box when a design is settled on to make sure it is covered on any sort of issue.
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Good Morning WU, Ike, Senior Chief, Patrick…

All’s quite in the ATL…that is good to see…hopefully…BP will surprise us all and get this job done…ASAP…
Excellent new avatar Ike…sadly, I was never able to see them live, my wife was however…I was/still am most envious for sure…
Thanks for the excellent blog Senior Chief…you are quite amazing for sure…I know you have heard it a million times…but thank you for your insight…

v/r

Jon

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If I saw there was a Cat. 3 heading my way...I would be long gone. And I live about 50 mi. inland :-/
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I was going to tell Patrap yesterday to notify his governor that some weather had pasted by S. Fl. to call out the national guard. But I see looks like the same part of Mexico is stuck in groundhog weather year. Joe B. will see GW only when it starts between his ears. I see he needs something to talk about other than the tropics. Say it ain't so Joe.
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Quoting Chucktown:


I agree with what your saying on the meteorological side of things side of things, but to the guy that just moved to New Orleans last year or someone that hasn't been through a "tropical situation", the local mets really need to make sure there isn't any false sense of security. Hugo hit here in 1989, (I was still in high school living in Jersey), but with all the transplants, including myself, now here in the Lowcountry, a survey was done. The local paper asked if you would leave if a Cat 3 was headed to Charleston. "Only" 64% said they would. That is scary.
Wow, that's pretty sad. Here in Miami, the local mets are hypers, and I mean they will hype the situation way too much. But I would prefer a met that hypes the situation, rather than one that underestimates the situation.
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Whs, it's their job to make sure everyone stays safe. In your eyes, Bonnie wasn't what you expected. It was mainly disorganized, weak, and many people thought it would be another Katrina. That wasn't the case and I think it's time for you to move on from Bonnie.
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Mornin' all!

If anyone hasn't read StormW's last blog, you really should. It contains some fantastic information. Especially all my fellow lurkers.

Love the new avatar Ike. Maybe I should change mine to a pic of my Swan Song angel tattoo?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it was a tropical storm, most weak tropical storms can be considered "worthless" as it doesn't do much more than bring some rain and a couple gusts. As for me, I didn't consider Bonnie worthless whatsoever.

With what I put in bold I do agree 100%.


I agree with what your saying on the meteorological side of things side of things, but to the guy that just moved to New Orleans last year or someone that hasn't been through a "tropical situation", the local mets really need to make sure there isn't any false sense of security. Hugo hit here in 1989, (I was still in high school living in Jersey), but with all the transplants, including myself, now here in the Lowcountry, a survey was done. The local paper asked if you would leave if a Cat 3 was headed to Charleston. "Only" 64% said they would. That is scary.
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Quoting whs2012:


My point is historically, within the past decade, this is a slow year!
2004 was in the past decade. And "historically" would be since 1856 not the past decade. End of discussion, please.
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2801. IKE
Quoting whs2012:


Yeah like Rita! The NHC making calls like that and we getting nothin is bad! A hefty number of ppl didn't evacuate for Ike, why, because everyone evacuated for Rita and nothing really happened in the Houston area!


Usually...if you're at least 75-100 miles from where the center crosses a coast...you'll be safe from a hurricane. You may/should get tropical storm conditions(35-50 mph winds), but you'll be okay. The problem is...it may be too late sometimes before you know.

I can jump in my car and get that far away from any storm.

I've done it for Opal...Ivan....Dennis.....with no problems at all.
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Quoting whs2012:


In 2008, there were 2 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes by this time! In 2006, we had 4 tropical storms by this time! In 2005, we had 4 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes by this time! In 2003, we had 2 tropical depressions, 2 tropical storms, and 2 hurricanes by now! Must I go on? We had 1 depression, 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane right! Not really in comparison to past years. So, how is this NOT a slow year thus far? Thanks!
Ya' point? 2004 had much more ACE than all those seasons you listed and we didn't have NOTHING until July 31st. 1995 (even more ACE than 2004) by now had a category 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms, which is about the same as this year. 1950 has the second most ACE on record and started on August 12th. 1998 was hyperactive and started on July 27th. I could just keep on going, and going, and going. You seem to forget that early season activity does not determine whether the season will be a "bust" or "hyperactive".
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Quoting IKE:


That is an excellent point and this is an excellent post.

+1


I would have to agree with that. Even though Bonnie didn't bring the force that some people were expecting, it still was a tropical storm that should be respected. However, many news stations, (as well as the blog) did hype up the system too much. It brought a few showers to the mainly Miami area and it was very very hyped up. News coverage would not stop! Now, when and if the next system hits the S.FL area, residents will be less aggressive because they expect what "Bonnie" had to bring.
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Just give up on whs, ignore him. He's thick, we all know that. He obviously has no respect for human life and damages which is what this season has proven so far its good at doing, and that is what matters in the end, not the number of storms.
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2794. 7544
so the blob by the yucatan could it develope
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But it's July, we aren't even half way, so you can't consider it a bust (which it won't be) or an active season, YET. I don't know why you would question TD #2 when it was obviously a TD. I also don't know why Bonnie was worthless. I also think that in post-season analysis 92L will be classified as a tropical storm.

+1
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.
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2791. IKE
Quoting Chucktown:


Bonnie was kind of worthless in the whole scheme of things. Granted the Gulf is broiling and one would think that Bonnie would regenerate some before making a second landfall, but none of the models were picking up on this and the NHC knew by Friday night that this wasn't going to be a big deal. You've got to think in terms of sensible weather, at least thats how I have to think. You can't blow the whistle too loud or else when it does matter, no one is going to listen. Bonnie was nothing more than a summer thunderstorm and it still cost quite a bit of money even though it didn't do any damage due to the cost of interuption of the oil well capping.


That is an excellent point and this is an excellent post.

+1
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Quoting Chucktown:


Bonnie was kind of worthless in the whole scheme of things. Granted the Gulf is broiling and one would think that Bonnie would regenerate some before making a second landfall, but none of the models were picking up on this and the NHC knew by Friday night that this wasn't going to be a big deal. You've got to think in terms of sensible weather, at least thats how I have to think. You can't blow the whistle too loud or else when it does matter, no one is going to listen. Bonnie was nothing more than a summer thunderstorm and it still cost quite a bit of money even though it didn't do any damage due to the cost of interuption of the oil well capping.
Well it was a tropical storm, most weak tropical storms can be considered "worthless" as it doesn't do much more than bring some rain and a couple gusts. As for me, I didn't consider Bonnie worthless whatsoever.

With what I put in bold I do agree 100%.
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2787. Thaale
Model consensus, really? Looks like NOGAPS isn't showing anything, and what CMC and GFS predict doesn't seem to be the same thing in the same place. And it looks like GFS shows its system spinning up at 6° N, which doesn't seem very likely.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But it's July, we aren't even half way, so you can't consider it a bust (which it won't be) or an active season, YET. I don't know why you would question TD #2 when it was obviously a TD. I also don't know WHY Bonnie was worthless. I also think that in post-season analysis 92L will be classified as a tropical storm.


Bonnie was kind of worthless in the whole scheme of things. Granted the Gulf is broiling and one would think that Bonnie would regenerate some before making a second landfall, but none of the models were picking up on this and the NHC knew by Friday night that this wasn't going to be a big deal. You've got to think in terms of sensible weather, at least thats how I have to think. You can't blow the whistle too loud or else when it does matter, no one is going to listen. Bonnie was nothing more than a summer thunderstorm and it still cost quite a bit of money even though it didn't do any damage due to the cost of interuption of the oil well capping.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I did say it wasn't for the faint heart now didn't I?
LOL, I thought he was forecasting more U.S landfalls or something.
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I did say it wasn't for the faint heart now didn't I?
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2771. PensacolaDoug 9:58 AM EDT on July 26, 2010

Never mind, I thought it was about the tropics. I'll turn my vote to a "no" now, lol.
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2782. breald
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB last eve.


SUNDAY 10:30 PM

AMAZING IGNORANCE FROM A US SENATOR.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845

In it, John Kerry, Massachusetts Senator, says the arctic will be ice free in 5-10 years.

Astounding. Truly Amazing. I wonder if he moved his yacht from Mass to Rhode Island to escape faster rising waters in the Mass bays, or perhaps because its due to the taxes he had to pay if docked in Massachusetts. It better not be docked in Newport, me and another climate realist are golfing there Saturday and a few errant shots could wander at the boat.

In any case, given some of his statements, that could be a plausible reason.. fear of arctic ice melt raising sea levels. After all Newport is more like Scotland, probably would take more melt to get the boat up.

Earth to sen Kerry. You can take the boat back to your state and help the tax base. The Ice cap will increase the next 2 years, and overall it is starting its recovery with the descent of the global temps. A look at the difference between 07 and now would tell you that.

When is someone going to hold guys that make statements like this to account?

Looks like I wont be invited on to that yacht for a 19th hole event.

By the way, someone mail the good senator this link http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

In his world, and increase is a decrease anyway, but to the rationale you can see how much more ice there is now than in 2007 and both next year and the year after will have even more..that is my forecast ciao for now ****


SUNDAY 7:30 PM

SHADES OF THINGS TO COME?

Amazing story about Peruvian cold

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361111&CategoryId=14095

I have never seen such a thing. Looks a bit extreme to me


LOL!! That guy makes me laugh. I live about 15 mins from Newport,I should go say hello to old Joe..LOL

Seriously, the yacht will probably be docked in Newport. This is where it was built, this is where it is serviced, so why not dock it there?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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