Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:


I showed that to show just one Tropical expert who worked his tail off to tell the people that this was not just a run of the mill Hurricane.

Wikipedia

Bryan Norcross

Chief Meteorologist where he became known for his coverage of Hurricane Andrew. As Andrew passed just south of Miami in the early morning hours of Monday, August 24, 1992, Norcross's 23-hour marathon broadcast became many viewers' (and radio listeners') only link to the outside world. His television station was fortunate enough to be the station able to broadcast through the entire hurricane event. During the worst part of the storm, some people actually called into the station to ask for life-saving advice. Throughout the entire ordeal, Norcross remained calm, steady, and knowledgeable.
Norcross is one hell of a meteorologist, I remember watching him during Katrina. Too bad he retired.
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Quoting Levi32:


Tropical waves are not killed by land, but the passage will disrupt any attempt by the wave to form a low pressure center, which we might have seen the beginnings of today if it wasn't moving inland right now.

So if it would have been further east, it could have developed a Low?
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The waves' passage through the Yucatan will be through the non-mountainous area. If it can maintain good vorticity and the inverted V signature it should be watched once in the Gulf of Mexico.

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2878. Levi32
Quoting claire4385:
Inverted V means it's trying to wrap around?


Well in a sense....that means there are well-defined wind shifts along the wave axis, where the winds come into the wave from the southeast and exit coming out of the northeast, forming the shape of an upside-down "V". However, that signature doesn't necessarily mean the wave will try to close off a low pressure center and "wrap" as you say.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting claire4385:
Inverted V means it's trying to wrap around?


Inverted "V" is the usual configuration for a well defined tropical wave...it has the potential to wrap, but just because it's an inverted "V' doesn't mean that it will
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2876. Levi32
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you think it can survive it's passage through the Yucatan?


Tropical waves are not killed by land, but the passage will disrupt any attempt by the wave to form a low pressure center, which we might have seen the beginnings of today if it wasn't moving inland right now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Inverted V means it's trying to wrap around?
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
wnw at 12 mph


Im ready for some action in the central GOM!!! Maybe next week!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I pray to God that that never repeats itself. Bonnie was good enough.


I showed that to show just one Tropical expert who worked his tail off to tell the people that this was not just a run of the mill Hurricane.

Wikipedia

Bryan Norcross

Chief Meteorologist where he became known for his coverage of Hurricane Andrew. As Andrew passed just south of Miami in the early morning hours of Monday, August 24, 1992, Norcross's 23-hour marathon broadcast became many viewers' (and radio listeners') only link to the outside world. His television station was fortunate enough to be the station able to broadcast through the entire hurricane event. During the worst part of the storm, some people actually called into the station to ask for life-saving advice. Throughout the entire ordeal, Norcross remained calm, steady, and knowledgeable.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
2871. 7544
thanks btw and all it lokks like the yucatan blob getting pulled northward ?
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Quoting Levi32:


It does...hence the vorticity max. It's an open wave but a vigorous one with a well-defined inverted-V signature on visible satellite imagery and measured wind shifts at surface stations in central America.


Do you think it can survive it's passage through the Yucatan?
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Some weak curvature noted with the wave near the Yucatan.

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Quoting Levi32:
25-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph being reported at Costa Maya, just east of Chetumel all morning today. Wind shifts are being seen in Belize from NE winds to SE as the wave moves in.




WoW. Hi Levi.
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2866. Patrap


.."And I need a job, so I wanna be a NHC forecaster"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't be surprised to see it get shaded at 2:00 PM EDT.


Maybe the next invest!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Follow them idiotic numbers from the Self Elected Mind meld tropical "Experts" and that's what ya get.

Numbers without a clue,or purpose.


Ever see a Topical Expert give preparation advice...? No

We all would be better served if they did that twice a year instead of Hyping numbers that dont do a thing for anybody.

Ever.

Nada

..period.

Oh,..and good Morning Wunderland.



Link I wouldn't say they never do it.... I guess they could do it more though.
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2862. Levi32
Quoting claire4385:
That blob coming onshore over the yucatan doesnt have any spin to it, it's just a mass of convection right now.


It does...hence the vorticity max. It's an open wave but a vigorous one with a well-defined inverted-V signature on visible satellite imagery and measured wind shifts at surface stations in central America.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
2861. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Levi32:
25-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph being reported at Costa Maya, just east of Chetumel all morning today. Wind shifts are being seen in Belize from NE winds to SE as the wave moves in.



I wouldn't be surprised to see it get shaded at 2:00 PM EDT.
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Quoting ElConando:
I pray to God that that never repeats itself. Bonnie was good enough.
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Which way is that wave headed Jason?
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Wow, 3 refreshes and no new posts, sloooooooow blog this morning! I guess that's a good thing when you think about it!
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That blob coming onshore over the yucatan doesnt have any spin to it, it's just a mass of convection right now.
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2855. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:


Not to toot my own horn, but I did.:-) I didn't believe the season would start until the middle of July. BUT, I did think we would have a very active middle to end of July with 3 to 4 system. Obviously thats not going to happen.


I'm sorry..I didn't read your pre-season forecast.
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2853. Patrap
.."Werewolves of Wunderland"

Ahh-ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh...!

Morn' CT,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting KimberlyB:


You got to see them live. Just another reason to hate you.....Chicken~caster! :p



Mornin' Pat. That's a really good point. Can anyone offer me any insite as to why they don't do that?


LOL...
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2851. Levi32
25-30mph winds with gusts up to 40mph being reported at Costa Maya, just east of Chetumel all morning today. Wind shifts are being seen in Belize from NE winds to SE as the wave moves in.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Mornin Pat.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
Quoting Patrap:


Legos and Ego's?

I always say,if you cant tell me when,where and How Bad..

Its futile.


Like saying a Football score a Day before the Game.



Quoting DestinJeff:


No glamour in that message. That's why. Sad, but true.



Sensationalism sells, so to speak?
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Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

O_O That looks pretty healthy. Let's see if it stays that way after it crosses the Yucatan.
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2844. Patrap
Quoting KimberlyB:


You got to see them live. Just another reason to hate you.....Chicken~caster! :p



Mornin' Pat. That's a really good point. Can anyone offer me any insite as to why they don't do that?


Legos and Ego's?

I always say,if you cant tell me when,where and How Bad..

Its futile.


Like saying a Football score a Day before the Game.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Patrap:
Follow them idiotic numbers from the Self Elected Mind meld tropical "Experts" and that's what ya get.

Numbers without a clue,or purpose.


Ever see a Topical Expert give preparation advice...? No

We all would be better served if they did that twice a year instead of Hyping numbers that dont do a thing for anybody.

Ever.

Nada

..period.

Oh,..and good Morning Wunderland.



I've seen it plenty.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting IKE:
To any and all....ask yourself this question....how many so called experts predicted an average start to the season? June and July? If most of these experts had said that, the uproar over the "slow start" wouldn't be near as loud.

And yes...it's loud from what I've read and heard.


Not to toot my own horn, but I did.:-) I didn't believe the season would start until the middle of July. BUT, I did think we would have a very active middle to end of July with 3 to 4 system. Obviously thats not going to happen.
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2841. Patrap
GOM Low Cloud Product
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Floodman:


Zep was much cleaner in the studio, but their whole idea was that they would change things up and improvise when they played out...I saw them in St Louis in the 70s, touring behind ZOSO (Zeppelin 4) and the take on Stairway to Heaven was pretty interesting


You got to see them live. Just another reason to hate you.....Chicken~caster! :p

Quoting Patrap:
We all would be better served if they did that twice a year instead of Hyping numbers that dont do a thing for anybody.


Mornin' Pat. That's a really good point. Can anyone offer me any insite as to why they don't do that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
To any and all....ask yourself this question....how many so called experts predicted an average start to the season? June and July? If most of these experts had said that, the uproar over the "slow start" wouldn't be near as loud.

And yes...it's loud from what I've read and heard.


I am not complaining and feel fortunate that there are not more Alex's out there, but with the heart of the season approaching and the big ones forming June and July will be an after thought in a few months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2837. Patrap
Follow them idiotic numbers from the Self Elected Mind meld tropical "Experts" and that's what ya get.

Numbers without a clue,or purpose.


Ever see a Topical Expert give preparation advice...? No

We all would be better served if they did that twice a year instead of Hyping numbers that dont do a thing for anybody.

Ever.

Nada

..period.

Oh,..and good Morning Wunderland.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Times2:
I am assuming the activity around the Yucatan is nothing? Any comments.
Looks like a pretty well-defined tropical wave, might have to be watched when it crosses the Yucatan. That said, a "TD #2"-type system is possible, yet again.
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2835. Levi32
Quoting 7544:
could the yucatan system develope ??


It is possible once it crosses the Yucatan. It will have to be watched, for right now it is a vigorous wave.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting IKE:


Most of ZEP's songs sound better in studio vs. live anyway. Just my opinion. Yeah, I would have loved to have seen them live.

Another hot, sultry day, here in the Florida panhandle.


Zep was much cleaner in the studio, but their whole idea was that they would change things up and improvise when they played out...I saw them in St Louis in the 70s, touring behind ZOSO (Zeppelin 4) and the take on Stairway to Heaven was pretty interesting
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Quoting hydrus:
I am glad it was weak, if it had been a major hurricane, a lot of South Florida and coastal Louisiana would be having serious problems right now. The oil disaster recovery efforts would have been sidelined for a longer period of time also. That Florida-Louisiana track can be a devastating one.
I agree 100%. But calling Bonnie a worthless tropical storm doesn't make sense to me. It was a weak tropical storm.
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2832. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


You using Jedi mind tricks on us now? I can't figure out if that is an Ike-typical downcast, or one of the "this season has not yet begun to fight" posts.


LOL...it'll pick up.....climatology says it will. I was just expecting more, so far....based off what I've read the last few months.
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Quoting IKE:


Usually...if you're at least 75-100 miles from where the center crosses a coast...you'll be safe from a hurricane. You may/should get tropical storm conditions(35-50 mph winds), but you'll be okay. The problem is...it may be too late sometimes before you know.

I can jump in my car and get that far away from any storm.

I've done it for Opal...Ivan....Dennis.....with no problems at all.


I was at my parent's house in Ocala when Frances came by and a tree nearly fell on their house a little nerving to say the least, of course after 2004 folks in Ocala learned that they can be effected by tropical systems.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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