Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2980. Patrap
That one cricket seems to tracking wnw obviously..
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Quoting Times2:
It seems like the ULL's we have seen this year are really controling tropical development. I don't remember them being so dominant in the past.


They're not in the "heart of the season". We're not there, yet.
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2978. Patrap

"..Sure,I'll take yas to where da Cane's form Laddy..'



Bring ya Bags of doo-dads and wets suits and Fancy GPS Sondes too"..


But Hooper drives da Boat ..
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Quoting beell:


I am a big hairy texan. we don't say "thingie"!



You can substitute the more archaic "thingamabob"; not as accurate but still acceptable...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Big blog update, you'll find this informative I hope.

Tropical development off Africa continues to be a possibility 7/26/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting StormW:


More toward the 3rd week of August.


Well StormW I hope the storm gods are not in favor of bringing on a Cat 2 on Sept 1-5 as I have my daughter's wedding to fly to in California; it would be distressful leaving knowing a monster is lurking nearby.
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2973. beell
Quoting Floodman:


PLease use the correct terminology; the tripole is a thingie as opposed to say the MJO, which is, as all of us know, a doodad

LOL


I am a big hairy texan. we don't say "thingie"!

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Quoting DestinJeff:
What people fail to understand is that the 2010 season won't live up to the hype until on and after the 12,349th post here on the blog suggesting it will be hyper-active.

We are currently at #6,782. I am keeping track.


You are exactly correct...not enough energy in the blogosphere as yet...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting StormW:


So if the thingie works in tandem with the doodad, and places the watchamacallit in the right place, and then the thingamabob takes advantage, will we see the season ramp up?


Precisely...though these terms are so technical I fear we'll scare off the laymen!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting StormW:


So if the thingie works in tandem with the doodad, and places the watchamacallit in the right place, and then the thingamabob takes advantage, will we see the season ramp up?

O.o This is so strange...LOL
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Storm would you say the pattern for a significant portion of August would be long track Cape Verde storms based on MJO?
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Quoting Floodman:


PLease use the correct terminology; the tripole is a thingie as opposed to say the MJO, which is, as all of us know, a doodad

LOL

LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:


They've gotten you, too, Flood?


LOL

I have always been as you see me now...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2960. Patrap
.."Down by, the invest"..
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Quoting KimberlyB:
Thanks Tim and nice call! You just shamed me into checking your info more frequently then I have been. I would have already known the answer to my question. :(



LOL! Love the levity you bring to the blog Flood.



Thanks Storm. On my way over there now.



Thank you, Kimberly!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 26, 2010 ISSUED 11:50 A.M.

Thanks Storm!
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Quoting beell:


Is that tripole thing fading?


PLease use the correct terminology; the tripole is a thingie as opposed to say the MJO, which is, as all of us know, a doodad

LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Thanks Tim and nice call! You just shamed me into checking your info more frequently then I have been. I would have already known the answer to my question. :(

Quoting Floodman:


Here is a diagram of a healthy hair follicle...LOL


LOL! Love the levity you bring to the blog Flood.

Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 26, 2010 ISSUED 11:50 A.M.


Thanks Storm. On my way over there now.

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Quoting StormW:


I hear ya! My right knee is the same way.


Ayuh, I feel your pain...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2952. beell
@ StormW - 2949.

Thank you, sir. Just checkin. Not as clearly defined as it was in June.
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You're to young to have a back ^_^
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Quoting StormW:


Going good. How's the back?


Not too bad...since my surgery my back has become something of a weather staton and by the feel of things this morning, I believe we're coming on some rain (as my grandad would have said)...

Things aren't bad, as things go...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Upward MJO comes back into Eastern Atlantic right at the end of the month. Though Development doesn't seem likely in the Caribbean for a while. Cape Verde season could be open as soon as this time next week.
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2946. beell
Quoting StormW:
Questions?

JULY 26, 2010



Is that tripole thing fading?
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It's been mentioned several times here that there seem to be an abundant number of upper level lows affecting the tropics this year so far. Anyone have any insight as to why?
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Quoting StormW:


Hey flood!


Storm, my friend, how are things in your neck of the woods?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922


Here is a diagram of a healthy hair follicle...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2939. myway
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 26, 2010 ISSUED 11:50 A.M.


Thanks Storm. To the point as it should be.
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Quoting StormW:
Questions?

JULY 26, 2010



Wow...full tilt La Nina and some seriously warm water in the Atl Basin...when this season decides to ramp up it's going to be very interesting, huh?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big picture


MJO don't lie Indian Ocean popping with convection. Once that comes to Africa, look out.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 26, 2010 ISSUED 11:50 A.M.


A great and impassioned post. Telling it like it is!
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2933. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
big picture
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna be a real quiet two weeks maybe time for a blog break


I don't think you can stay away... Sorta like them chips, bet you can't just eat one LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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